Upcoming Match-ups

Astros vs Yankees Odds, Lines & Picks (Aug. 5)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Aug 4, 2023 · 8:25 PM PDT

Justin Verlander stands in the dugout
Aug 3, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) stands in the dugout during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Astros are -135 road favorites over the Yankees on Saturday
  • Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.15) will start for the Astros against Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes (5-2, 5.16)
  • A look at the Astros vs Yankees matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

Justin Verlander makes his return to the Houston Astros as they visit the New York Yankees at 1:05pm ET Saturday in the third game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium.

The Astros (63-48, 32-23 road) downed the Yankees 7-3 on Friday night for their fourth win in their last five games. New York (57-53, 34-27 home) has lost four of five.

MLB Network will televise the game.

Astros vs Yankees Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros -135 -1.5 (+122) Over 8.5 (+100)
New York Yankees +115 +1.5 (-145) Under 8.5 (-120)

The Astros are -135 favorites on the moneyline over the Yankees on Saturday in the MLB odds, giving them a 57.45% implied win probability. Houston has +800 World Series championship odds and New York is listed at +2500.

It should be a nice day in the Bronx with the weather forecast calling for mostly sunny skies, a high of 83 and wind from the north at 6 mph.

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Astros vs Yankees Probable Pitchers

Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.15) is expected to make his first start for the Astros since being acquired from the New York Mets in a trade and face left-hander Nestor Cortes (5-2, 5.16), who is expected to be activated from the injured list. Verlander will be pitching on five days of rest and Cortes on seven.

Verlander vs Cortes Stats

Justin Verlander
VS
Nestor Cortes
6-5 Record 5-2
3.15 ERA 5.16
3.29 xERA 3.80
1.14 WHIP 1.30
2.61 SO/W 3.11

Verlander returns to the Astros, where he pitched from 2017-22 and won two World Series and two American League Cy Young Awards.

He won each of his last three starts with the Mets while compiling a 0.93 ERA. He beat the Washington Nationals last Sunday in New York, giving up one run and five hits in 5.1 innings while striking out five and walking one for his 250th career victory.

This will be Verlander’s 35th career start against the Yankees. He is 15-8 with a 3.07 ERA.

Verlander is 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA in seven road starts this season and has a 2-1 record and 1.56 ERA in three starts during the day. The Mets were 8-8 when Verlander started, and he had eight quality starts in 16 outings.

Cortes has been on the IL since May 31 with a left rotator cuff strain. He made a rehab start last Friday for Double-A Somerset and pitched four scoreless innings against Bowie, allowing two hits with five strikeouts and one walk.

In his last three starts before being placed on the IL, Cortes was 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA. He has a 1-1 lifetime record versus the Astros with an 8.66 ERA in seven games (four starts).

Cortes is 2-0 with a 4.86 ERA in six starts at Yankee Stadium this season and 2-1 with a 7.97 ERA in four starts in day games. He has notched just three quality starts in 11 turns, but the Yankees are 7-4 when he toes the slab.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Astros Batters Batting Average vs Nestor Cortes
Alex Bregman .500
Yordan Alvarez .500
Mauricio Dubon .500
Jeremy Pena .500
Jose Abreu .300
Jose Altuve .167
Kyle Tucker .167
Martin Maldonado .167
Jake Meyers .000
Yankees Batters Batting Average vs Justin Verlander
Greg Allen .500
DJ LeMahieu .300
Billy McKinney .286
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .182
Gleyber Torres .167
Jake Bauers .154
Aaron Judge .143
Giancarlo Stanton .125
Kyle Higashioka .000
Anthony Volpe .000
Harrison Bader .000

Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is 3-for-6 with a home run off Cortes. However, catcher Martin Maldonado, second baseman Jose Altuve and right fielder Kyle Tucker are all 1-for-6. Tucker’s American League MVP odds are +8500.

Yankees third baseman DJ LeMahieu is 6-for-20 (.300) with a double and homer off Verlander but designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is 2-for-16 (.125) with two home runs and eight strikeouts and right fielder Aaron Judge is 2-for-14 (.143) with one longball.

Astros vs Yankees Betting Outlook

Yainer Diaz hit a three-run home run in the first inning to spark the Astros over the Yankees 7-3 on Friday night. Yordan Alvarez also connected for Houston.

Alvarez, Altuve and Jeremy Pena each had three hits.

The Yankees’ runs came on solo home runs by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers and Stanton. Bauers and LeMahieu had two hits each.

Astros vs Yankees Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
8/4/23 Yankees Astros HOU, 7-3
8/3/23 Yankees Astros NYY, 4-3
10/23/22 Yankees Astros HOU, 6-5
10/22/22 Yankees Astros HOU, 5-0
10/20/22 Astros Yankees HOU, 3-2
10/19/22 Astros Yankees HOU, 4-2
7/21/22 (2) Astros Yankees HOU, 7-5
7/21/22 (1) Astros Yankees HOU, 3-2
6/30/22 Astros Yankees HOU, 2-1
6/26/22 Yankees Astros NYY, 6-3

The Astros are 16-12 against the Yankees since 2019, including winning the 2019 American League Championship Series in six games and sweeping the 2021 ALCS in four games.

Astros vs Yankees Prediction

Verlander had been pitching great for the Mets recently and it’s hard to imagine he won’t come up with a gem in his return to the Astros. Throw in some expected rustiness from Cortes and the Astros are the way to go.

Pick: Astros ML (-135)

Season Record: 37-15 (+19.0 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 2-1 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 0-1 (-1.0 unit) same-game parlays; 2-2 (+3.6) player props; 43-21’ (+22.6 units) overall.

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