Braves vs Reds Predictions, Props & Betting Splits on May 31
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- I’m backing the Braves on the run line this afternoon versus the Reds
- Atlanta has outscored Cincinnati 13-5 in the first two games of this series
- Get the Braves vs Reds predictions and props below, along with the betting splits for May 31
The Braves (39-19) and Reds (29-27) wrap up their series this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM EST at Great American Ball Park. Atlanta won yesterday’s matchup 5-2 behind a multi-home run effort from Ronald Acuna Jr, establishing themselves as clear road favorites today in the MLB odds.
This matchup features an exciting pitching duel with Spencer Strider taking the mound against Nick Lodolo. Below, you’ll find my favorite Braves vs Reds predictions and props, along with the betting splits for the his NL showdown on May 31st.
Braves vs Reds Predictions and Props
- Braves -1.5 (+120 at Bet365)
- Over 8.5 Total Runs (-115 at Bet365)
- Spencer Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-118 at DraftKings)
- Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106 at BetMGM)
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My favorite two picks this afternoon are the Braves -1.5 runs and over 8.5. With an elite overall record, Atlanta possesses a significant advantage over Cincinnati in the MLB starting lineups, particularly on the mound. The visiting pitching staff boasts a collective 3.13 ERA, effectively neutralizing opponents.
Conversely, the pitching staff for the home side has struggled with run prevention, carrying a 4.74 team ERA into today’s contest.
Strider, Atlanta’s ace, brings a sturdy 3.46 ERA and a 11.08 K/9 rate to the mound. Meanwhile, Lodolo has surrendered considerable contact, resulting in a 5.57 ERA across his starts.
Spencer Strider vs Nick Lodolo Stats
Strider enters this contest boasting a perfect 3-0 record. His ability to miss bats remains excellent. Over his recent outings, he has limited opposing lineups to a .170 batting average.
As a result, I am confidently backing Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts in the MLB props market. He faces a lineup prone to empty swings that has already racked up 526 total strikeouts as a team this year.
At the plate, the data points directly to Atlanta’s heavy hitter. I love the value on Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases.
Olson leads his team in home runs (16), RBI (45), and slugging percentage (.555) per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. Against a vulnerable arm like Lodolo, who allows a .270 opponent batting average, Olson is in a prime position to record an extra-base hit.
As for the total, given the visitors’ offensive metrics, and the fact that his game will be played in an extremely hitter friendly venue according to the MLB park factors, betting Over 8.5 runs makes perfect sense.
Braves vs Reds Betting Trends
- Atlanta is winning at a 67.8% clip overall this season (40-19).
- The road favorites boast a 73.2% win rate when favored (30-11).
- Betting the Under in Cincinnati games has hit in just 31.6% of their overall matchups.
- The Under has only cashed in 30.0% of Atlanta’s last 10 games.
Braves vs Reds Odds
SPORTSBOOK
Braves vs Reds Betting Splits
Analyzing the MLB public betting splits shows that casual bettors and big-money players are firmly unified. A massive 85.9% of moneyline tickets and 92.6% of the overall stake are riding on Atlanta to win outright.
The public’s confidence extends to the run total. The Over is dominating the betting splits, drawing 93.7% of the tickets and 92.1% of the total stake.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.