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Braves vs Mets Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers (April 29)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 28, 2023 · 11:58 PM PDT

tlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson . Braves vs Mets
Apr 28, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) runs the bases after hitting a three run home run during the top of the fifth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Braves are -148 road favorites over the Mets on Saturday
  • Spencer Strider (3-0, 1.80) will start for the Braves against the Mets’ Tylor Megill (3-1, 3.96)
  • A look at the Braves vs Mets matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

The Atlanta Braves will try to make it two wins in a row over their National League East rivals when they meet the Mets at 4:05 p.m. ET Saturday in the second game of a four-game series at Citi Field in New York. Read on for an analysis of Braves vs Mets.

The Braves (18-9, 11-2 road) won for the fourth time in their last five games Friday night with a 4-0 victory in a game shortened to five innings because of rain. The Mets (15-12, 5-5 home) lost for the fifth time in their last six games.

Fox will televise the game.

Braves vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Atlanta Braves -148 -1.5 (+122) Over 7.5 (-118)
New York Mets +126 +1.5 (-146) Under 7.5 (-104)

The Braves are -148 favorites on the moneyline over the Mets on Saturday in the MLB odds, giving them a 59.68% implied win probability. Atlanta is the +550 favorite in the World Series championship odds and New York is listed at +800.

It could be an ugly day in New York with a 90% chance of rain or drizzle forecast with a high of 53 degrees and wind from the east at 18-21 mph with gusts up to 31 mph.

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Odds as of April 28th at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Braves vs Mets Probable Pitchers

Spencer Strider (3-0, 1.80) will pitch for the Braves and face Tylor “Big Drip” Megill (3-1, 3.96). Strider will be pitching on four days of rest and Megill on five.

Strider vs Megill

Spencer Strider
Tylor Megill
3-0 Record 3-1
1.80 ERA 3.96
2.34 xERA 6.46
0.83 WHIP 1.48
4.45 SO/W 1.58

Strider is coming off an excellent outing in which he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning Monday in a win over the Miami Marlins in Atlanta. He wound up giving up two hits in eight scoreless innings while striking out 13 and walking none.

Strider has a 2-1 career record against the Mets with a 4.30 ERA in five games (three starts).

In two road starts this season, Strider is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He won his lone start in a day game on April 1 when he pitched six shutout innings against the Nationals in Washington.

The Braves are 5-0 so far in 2023 when Strider toes the slab. At +500, he is co-favored with Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias in the NL Cy Young odds.

Megill struggled last Sunday in a no-decision against the Giants in San Francisco, allowing four runs and six hits in four innings. He had two strikeouts and one walk.

Big Drip does have his moments.

Versus the Braves in his career, Megill is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six games (five starts).

Megill has won both his starts at Citi Field this season while compiling a 1.64 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA in four starts in day games. The Mets have won three of Megill’s five starts.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Braves Batters Batting Average vs Tylor Megill
Matt Olson .333
Marcell Ozuna .333
Ozzie Albies .308
Austin Riley .231
Ronald Acuna Jr. .200
Ehire Adrianza .000
Eddie Rosario .000
Mets Batters Batting Average vs Spencer Strider
Brandon Nimmo .444
Francisco Lindor .444
Jeff McNeil .400
Mark Canha .333
Eduardo Escobar .333
Luis Guillorme .333
Pete Alonso .167
Daniel Vogelbach .000
Starling Marte .000
Tommy Pham .000
Tomas Nido .000

Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies is 4 for 13 (.308) with one home run off Megill.

Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo and shortstop Francisco Lindor are 4 for 9 both against Strider with Nimmo homering and Lindor hitting a triple. Conversely, first baseman Pete Alonso is 1 for 6 with five strikeouts, though he has doubled and walked twice.

Braves vs Mets Betting Outlook

Matt Olson’s three-run home run lifted the Braves to their rain-shortened victory over the Mets on Friday night. Ronald Acuna drove in Atlanta’s other run with a single.

At +500, Acuna is the favorite in the NL MVP odds.

Braves center fielder Michael Harris II was activated from the injured list before the game and went 0 for 2. Utility player Nick Solak was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett along with outfielder Eli White, who was activated from the paternity list.

The Mets managed just three singles in five innings.

Braves vs Mets Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
4/28/23 Mets Braves ATL, 4-0
10/2/22 Braves Mets ATL, 5-3
10/1/22 Braves Mets ATL, 4-2
9/30/22 Braves Mets ATL, 5-2
8/18/22 Braves Mets ATL, 3-2
8/17/22 Braves Mets NYM, 9-7
8/16/22 Braves Mets ATL, 5-0
8/15/22 Braves Mets ATL, 13-1
8/7/22 Mets Braves NYM, 5-2
8/6/22 (2) Mets Braves NYM, 6-2

The Braves are 69-56 against the Mets since the start of the 2016 season, including wins in seven of the last eight games.

Braves vs Mets Prediction

Strider is the NL Cy Young co-favorite for a reason and it’s impossible to bet against him at the present, even against a quality team like the Mets. The Braves having the best road record in the major leagues only strengthens the play.

Pick: Braves -148 ML

Season Record: 12-5 (+5.1 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 1-0 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 14-7 (+6.1 units) overall

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