Alex Bregman (+100) Nearly Even with Mike Trout (-140) in Final AL MVP Odds
- Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels remains the -140 chalk to be named American League MVP
- Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros (+100) is a close second in this betting market
- What should be the deciding factor? Raw numbers? Analytics? Their role in team success?
Alex Bregman or Mike Trout? Trout or Bregman?
Sports is filled – some would suggest fueled – by the power of debate. Individual success vs. team success. The eye test vs analytics.
When it comes to the MLB MVP awards, these comparisons are weighted differently depending upon the person doing the assessment. It leads to some fascinating arguments.
This season, all of these elements are in play amidst the dispute over who should be named the American League MVP, and the narrow AL MVP odds reflect the fact that myriad statistics could factor in.
2019 AL Most Valuable Player Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout (Angels) | -140 |
| Alex Bregman (Astros) | +100 |
*Odds taken on 10/03/19.
You can make a strong case for both Trout and Bregman being deserving of MVP recognition. Books peg Trout as the favorite at -140. Bregman is right there with him, though, listed at odds of +140.
Trout is two-time AL MVP. He won in 2014 and again in 2016.
Trout Is Baseball’s Best Player
Baseball people won’t debate the fact that Trout is the best all-around player in baseball. And there are plenty of numbers to support this argument.
Trout led the the AL in WAR (8.6), offensive WAR (8.3) and wOBA (.436). He was first in the league in on-base percentage (.438), slugging percentage (.645) and OPS (1.038). These are the numbers the analytics types get all geeky about.
.@MikeTrout and @ChristianYelich were dominant at the plate this year. pic.twitter.com/h2V1EXct0x
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) September 30, 2019
He was also #1 in adjusted OPS (185), adjusted batting runs (65), adjusted batting wins (6.0) and offensive winning percentage (.815).
To the moneyballers, Trout is money and they know it.
Trout also was the AL leader in home runs per at-bat (10.4) and intentional walks (14).
Who’s The Most Valuable Player?
That’s the question in debate here – not who the best player is but who is the most valuable player. And since impeachment is in the news, it seems appropriate to invoke Bill Clinton’s infamous line during his 1992 impeachment inquiry: what is your definition of the word “is”?
In this instance, the debate is over your definition of the world “valuable.”
Mike Trout says he’s in a fantasy league with Alex Bregman and they played each other last week. Bregman’s team won.
— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) September 25, 2019
There are a number of ways to measure value in sports. Is it about which player put up the best numbers, or does contributing to overall team success play a role in the MVP outcome?
No one would question that Trout is the better player than Bregman but is he the most valuable player this season?
Trout or Bregman? Who is your AL MVP? pic.twitter.com/r99SMLTK3H
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) October 1, 2019
Bregman can also boast of some significant numbers. He trails Trout slightly in WAR (8.5), on-base percentage (.423), slugging (.592), and wOBA (.438). Trout (45) hit more homers than Bregman (41) but Bregman (.296) posted a better batting average than Trout (.291).
Bregman also won the battle in RBI (112-104) and runs scored (122-110). He led the AL in walks (119), runs created (150) and times on base (292).
And The Winner Is . . .
It’s Bregman, and for a reason that has nothing to with numbers, other than the digit in the win column.
When the Astros, in the midst of a magical season that has them pegged as World Series favorites, lost shortstop Carlos Correa to a fractured rib, Bregman rode to the rescue.
Players with 35+ HR and 100+ walks so far this season:
Josh Donaldson
Mike Trout
Alex Bregman pic.twitter.com/MMgmghLGuB— FOX Sports: Braves (@FOXSportsBraves) September 28, 2019
He slid over from third base to fill the void at shortstop, playing 66 games at the position. Not for his personal stats but for the betterment of the team.
That’s what leaders do. That’s what MVPs do.
It’s why Bregman should win the award.
Pick: Alex Bregman (+100)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
