Predictions, Splits & Injuries for Knicks vs Spurs (Game 1)

• I’m backing the Knicks +4.5 vs the Spurs tonight in Game 1 of the NBA Finals
• New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 postseason games
• See the top predictions, splits and injuries for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1, below

Game 1 of the NBA Finals goes down tonight between the Knicks and Spurs, as New York sets out out to snap one of the longest championship droughts in the NBA. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 PM EST at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, with national broadcast coverage on ABC.

San Antonio looks the part of a dominant home favorite in the NBA odds, fresh off a crushing victory powered by elite big man Victor Wembanyama. Conversely, New York presents immense value as a dangerous road underdog, having just dismantled their previous opponent behind commanding performances from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson.

Both teams have proven they can flip the switch offensively, setting the stage for a highly anticipated series opener. Below, I’ll give out my top predictions, as well as the latest splits and injuries for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1.

Predictions for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1

• Knicks +4.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
• Under 218.5 (-105 at Caesars)

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My two favorite bets tonight are the Knicks against the spread and the under. New York is currently catching 4.5 points, and recent situational data strongly supports taking those points.

Here are the critical betting trends shaping my series opener predictions:

• New York is 9-1 ATS after a win over their last 10 games (90% success rate).
• San Antonio is 0-3 ATS against New York over their last 3 meetings.
• The under hit in 6 of San Antonio’s 9 home playoff games (66.7%).
• The under cashed in 5 of New York’s last 6 games against top-10 scoring defenses (83.3%).

While the Spurs have performed well recently, the Knicks’ ATS momentum following a victory is simply too dominant to ignore. I anticipate a fiercely competitive opener where the road squad keeps the margin within two possessions. New York’s ability to shoot the lights out on the road gives them a distinct mismatch and provides supreme confidence.

For the game total, oddsmakers have set the line at 218.5. Stepping up in competition against NBA Championship odds contenders drastically shifts the game script. Both teams possess the top two Defensive Ratings in the playoffs, and San Antonio has been historically stifling, leading the league by holding opponents to a mere 41.3% from the field.

Odds for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1

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Splits for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1

Moving over to the NBA public betting splits, the betting public is heavily backing the home team to win outright, with San Antonio commanding 80.1% of the moneyline tickets and 68.5% of the total money.

For the spread, the action is more balanced, though the public still leans toward the favorite. The Spurs have accrued 60.5% of the spread tickets and 54.2% of the money. Meanwhile, the Knicks are seeing 39.5% of the tickets but a solid 45.8% of the overall money.

My official pick of Knicks +4.5 goes against the majority of the public ticket count. However, the fact that New York is drawing a larger percentage of the money compared to their ticket percentage indicates slightly larger, sharper wagers are backing the road underdog.

If there is one thing the public agrees on, it is that they want to see points. The action on the total is incredibly lopsided, with a staggering 91.7% of tickets and 93.2% of the money backing the Over. Fading such overwhelming public consensus can feel uncomfortable, but heavily lopsided totals often inflate the line. I am comfortably backing the Under to zig while the rest of the betting public zags.

Injuries for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1

As for the injury report in the NBA starting lineups, there’s not a ton to monitor. For New York, all eyes are on the status of center Mitchell Robinson. After suffering a broken right pinky finger that required surgery, he is officially listed as Day-To-Day. However, reports indicate that the rim-protecting big man fully intends to suit up and play through the pain.

A hand injury could severely hamper Robinson’s ability to secure contested rebounds in traffic. If he is forced into a minutes restriction or struggles with the physical demands of battling Wembanyama inside, expect Towns to absorb an even larger workload. Any limitations for Robinson directly increase the value of Towns’ rebounding props.

On the San Antonio sideline, the coaching staff has a fully loaded rotational arsenal at their disposal. With their primary playoff rotation completely intact, the Spurs are perfectly positioned to execute their fast-paced offensive game plan without needing to juggle replacement minutes or eat dead weight on the bench.