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Diamondbacks vs Brewers Odds & Picks for Game 1 & Wild Card Series

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 2, 2023 · 2:22 PM UTC

Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames tossing his bat
Sep 29, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames (27) takes a walk in the second inning against the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds for the 2023 NL Wild Card heavily favor Milwaukee to advance
  • The Brewers are also big favorites to take Game 1 of the best-of-three series
  • See the DBacks vs Brewers Game 1 odds and picks plus the series price for the Wild Card series

Back in the postseason for the first time since 2017, the Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78, 41-40 away) face an arduous task when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers (92-70, 49-32 home) in a best-of-three NL Wild Card series.

A surprise playoff team, the Diamondbacks are not in an ideal situation. Already light on starting pitching, their top-two starters took the mound last Friday and Saturday, forcing them to lean on a less-than-ideal option for Game 1 against Milwaukee. Oddsmakers are siding with the Brewers in both the Game 1 odds and the series odds.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 Odds & Series Price

Team Game 1 Odds Series Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks +158 +160
Milwaukee Brewers -190 -190

The odds for Game 1 and the odds to win the series are identical if you’re backing Milwaukee. The Brewers are -190 betting favorites in both markets and, given the starting pitching advantage (more on this later), it’s easy to see why.

Odds as of Oct. 2 at Caesars. Claim a Caesars sign-up bonus to bet on the MLB playoffs and check out Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky if you’re a KY resident. 

In the NL half of the MLB playoff bracket, the winner of this series will be rewarded with a matchup against the #2 Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. With a daunting road ahead, neither team has optimistic World Series odds: the Brewers have the 9th-best odds among the 12 playoff teams at +1700, while the DBacks (+3000) are only shorter than the Marlins (+3500).

ARI vs MIL Starting Pitchers for Game 1

The duel on the mound has the look of a horrendous mismatch. While the Brewers hand the ball to 2021 Cy Young-winner Corbin Burnes, the Diamondbacks are (somewhat) forced to rely on rookie Brandon Pfaadt.

Burnes wasn’t up to his award-winning best this season, but juxtaposing the two starters paints a bleak picture for Arizona fans.

Brandon Pfaadt vs Corbin Burnes

3-9 Record 10-8
5.72 ERA 3.39
4.58 xERA 3.81
1.41 WHIP 1.07
22.3% SO% 25.5%

Zac Gallen, who led the NL Cy Young odds for three-quarters of the season, pitched on Friday in a loss to the Astros and figures to start Game 2 for Arizona. Number-two starter Merrill Kelly, who pitched last Saturday, should follow up on Thursday if there’s a Game 3.

Tuesday’s MLB player props portend a relatively quick, unproductive outing from Pfaadt. His strikeout over/under is just 4.5 with the under heavily favored (-145), while his total outs is set at 14.5, meaning he would need to complete the fifth inning to hit the over.

Though it must be noted that two of Pfaadt’s best outings of the season came during his final three starts: 11 innings of shutout ball against the Cubs (Sep. 15) and White Sox (Sep. 27).

Burnes’ strikeout prop is only 5.5 with roughly even odds both ways. His total outs is also only one higher than his counterpart at 15.5, needing one out in the fifth inning to go over.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 Prediction

Arizona backed its way into the playoffs, scoring just three total runs while losing four in a row at the end of the regular season. They maintained their edge on the Cubs because Chicago was equally miserable, losing five of six to close out the year.

The Arizona hitters don’t have a great history against Burnes, either, batting .244 with a .354 slugging percentage in 84 career at-bats.

The Brewers lineup has almost no history against Pfaadt. Carlos Santana is the only player who’s faced the young righty, going 1 for 2 with a single and a walk. Usually, hitters are at a disadvantage when facing a pitcher for the first time. But there’s no evidence that Pfaadt is ready to be thrust into this situation.

With the Arizona bats mired in an anemic stretch and their ace on the bench, take the Brewers to start strongly at home, as they often do.

DBacks vs Brewers Game 1 Pick: Brewers 1H -0.5 (-130)

Other Wild Card Series Previews:

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