Expert Picks & Predictions for Phillies vs Cubs (Apr 20)

• The Cubs are 7-3 in their past 10 games
• Chicago’s Colin Rea outdueled Aaron Nola in a 10-4 Cubs win on April 14
• Why we’re backing the Cubs on the moneyline, and the Under 7.5

The reeling Philadelphia Phillies (8-13) head to Chicago to start a 4-game series against the Cubs (12-9). Tonight’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:40 pm, ET, from Wrigley Field. MLB.TV will provide national coverage, which is included as part of your Fubo TV subscription.

These teams met a week ago, with the Cubs winning 2 of 3 in Philadelphia. That started the Phillies’ current 5-game losing streak and fueled the Cubs’ surge.

The Cubs started that streak when Colin Rea outdueled Aaron Nola (or, more specifically, the Phillies’ bullpen). Those same two pitchers are on the bump tonight at Wrigley.

We break down Phillies at Cubs, analyze the key hitter vs. pitcher stats and trends, and provide the best bets.

Phillies vs Cubs Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds on April 20 and are subject to change

The Cubs enter tonight’s matchup as slight home favorites on the consensus moneyline at -112. Despite the moneyline advantage for the home side, the runline remains structured with Philadelphia laying -1.5 runs and Chicago catching +1.5 runs at a steep -190 premium.

These current odds reflect significant line movement since the initial numbers were posted. The moneyline opened with the Phillies favored at -116 and the Cubs positioned as -102 underdogs. However, heavy betting volume completely flipped the script, forcing oddsmakers to adjust Chicago into the favorite role. The runline has seen similar action, shifting the juice on Chicago’s +1.5 from an opening -178 to the current -190. The game’s total also experienced a notable adjustment, dropping from an opening number of 8 down to 7.5 runs due to sharp action and structural factors like wind conditions.

Colin Rea vs Aaron Nola 2026 Stats

Aaron Nola vs Cubs

Cubs Hitters vs Aaron Nola

Colin Rea vs Phillies

Phillies Hitters vs Colin Rea

Phillies vs Cubs Home/Road Stats

By isolating Chicago’s home offensive metrics and Philadelphia’s away splits, we can pinpoint the exact statistical disparities defining this matchup.

Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

When analyzing the tale of the tape for this series opener, the statistical disparities between these clubs are difficult to ignore. The Cubs possess significant advantages on both sides of the diamond, paving the way for our primary game predictions. Chicago is 7-3 over its past 10 game; the Phillies are 2-8.

Moneyline Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110 at FanDuel): The Cubs are hitting a collective .251 with a .739 OPS, having already plated 100 runs this season. The Phillies’ lineup has struggled to find a rhythm, posting a sluggish .222 team batting average and a .669 OPS. On the mound, Chicago’s pitching staff boasts a sharp 3.59 team ERA, whereas Philadelphia’s arms have been much more vulnerable, carrying a 4.83 ERA. With Chicago winning 66.7% of their games as a favorite over their last 10 outings, backing the home side is the most logical betting angle.

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Over/Under Pick: Over 7.5 (-114 at DraftKings): Given Philadelphia’s offensive woes, predicting a lower-scoring affair would appear to be the savvy move. The Phillies are averaging a mere 3.17 runs per contest on the road, and the Under has hit in 66.7% of their total games this season. But the Phillies are just one-half of this equation. The teams played last week and the winning team exceeded this total all by itself in each game.

Phillies vs Cubs Top Player Prop Bets

Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+121 at DraftKings): Hoerner has been the engine of the offense. He currently sports a brilliant .325 batting average to go along with a .920 OPS. Getting plus money on Chicago’s most consistent hitter to record two or more bases is tremendous value against a vulnerable Philadelphia rotation.

Trea Turner to Record a Hit (-290 at DraftKings): Turner remains the most reliable piece in the visitors’ lineup, carrying a .256 average. He consistently puts the ball in play and utilizes his elite speed to beat out infield singles.

Kyle Schwarber to Record a Run (-130 at DraftKings): Schwarber consistently finds his way across the plate thanks to his 15.1% walk rate and raw power. If he reaches base, the heart of the order has a solid chance to drive him in. Schwarber scored 4 runs in the Phillies’ 13-7 win over the Cubs on April 13, but did not score in the final 2 games of that series.

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Cubs vs Phillies Betting Trends & Situational Angles

• Chicago are 7-3 in their past 10 games; the Phillies are 2-8.
• The Cubs are 4-2 in an underdog role.
• Philadelphia has burned backers recently when expected to win, holding a dismal 25% win rate (2-6) over their last 10 games as a favorite.
• High-scoring games have been rare for Philadelphia; the Over has hit in just 33.3% of their total games this season.
• Over their last 10 contests, Chicago’s offense has helped push totals higher, with the Over cashing at a 60% clip.

Public Betting Splits & Market Action

Tracking the MLB public betting trends provides critical context. For this clash at Wrigley Field, the betting markets show significant consensus, though our official picks find themselves both aligned with and fading the public depending on the specific market.

The betting public and the larger financial wagers are heavily aligned on the Cubs to win outright. Currently, Chicago commands 72.9% of all moneyline tickets, while an overwhelming 87.0% of the moneyline cash is backing them. When the money percentage significantly outpaces the ticket percentage, it generally indicates that bettors placing larger wagers are confident in that side. This financial support perfectly mirrors our official moneyline pick.

The runline market paints a very similar picture. The Cubs are drawing 61.4% of the tickets and a nearly identical 61.5% of the total stake. Because the ticket and money percentages are virtually mirrored, there is no classic sharp versus public divide here; everyday bettors and larger bankrolls are moving in tandem.

However, the total market presents a stark contrast. The Over is currently raking in a massive 89.8% of the betting tickets and 89.2% of the overall stake. Despite nearly 90% of the money backing a high-scoring affair, trusting the Under is a calculated fade of the public’s offensive optimism, deeply rooted in Philadelphia’s 3.17 road run average and Rea’s efficient pitch-to-contact profile.

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