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Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits for Orioles vs Red Sox (Jun 3)

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 28, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle (70) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
  • The Boston Red Sox are home favorites against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, June 3rd
  • Chris Bassitt toes the rubber for Baltimore while Boston counters with Payton Tolle
  • See the Orioles vs Red Sox odds, analysis and player props to wager on for this A.L. East rivalry clash

The Boston Red Sox (25-34) host the Baltimore Orioles (29-32) at Fenway Park Wednesday evening at 6:45 PM ET / 3:45 PM PT. The BoSox are are favored in the MLB odds despite losing Game 1 of the series Tuesday night by a 4-2 score. In that contest, the Orioles used home runs from Coby Mayo and Pete Alonso to back a solid start by Shane Baz.

Boston will hand the ball to Payton Tolle, who is missing bats at an elite rate. The Orioles counter with Chris Bassitt, a veteran struggling to limit hard contact. Keep reading for my picks and predictions along with an MLB Player Props selection.

Orioles vs Red Sox Predictions & Picks

  • My Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-155 at Caesars)

Tonight’s contest features one of the most lopsided pitching disparities on the MLB slate. Payton Tolle boasts a 2.61 ERA and a microscopic 0.90 WHIP over 41.1 innings. More importantly, he is fanning batters at a rate of 10.02 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his seven starts on the campaign.

Chris Bassitt enters with a bloated 5.44 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP across 53.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .310 against the veteran Bassitt, and in his previous outing against Boston, was rocked for eight earned runs in two innings of work last season. With the disparity in starters, I’m backing Boston in this one.

Payton Tolle vs Chris Bassitt

StatisticPayton Tolle (BOS)Chris Bassitt (BAL)
Win-Loss Record2-22-3
ERA2.615.44
WHIP0.901.70
FIP / xFIP2.67 / 3.524.52 / 4.80
Strikeouts per 9 IP10.025.44
Walks per 9 IP (L10)2.402.94
Opponent AVG.176.310
IP per Start (L10)5.904.83

The MLB probable pitchers show that Tolle has been virtually untouchable, holding batters to an abysmal .176 average. His 2.67 FIP indicates his production is entirely sustainable. Bassitt continues to allow heavy traffic on the basepaths, generating just 5.44 strikeouts per nine innings.

Top Orioles vs Red Sox Player Prop Pick

  • My Prop Pick: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-149 at Caesars)

My favorite selection in the MLB player props is riding with the pitcher I’m confident in with Payton Tolle. His elite swing-and-miss stuff makes his strikeout prop highly attractive. He’s racked up at least seven K’s in four of seven games this season, with a high water mark of eleven.

Baltimore vs Boston Odds and Betting Splits

Bet TypeOriolesRed Sox
Moneyline+123-149
Runline+1.5 (-163)-1.5 (+135)
Total RunsOver 9 (-105)Under 9 (-114)

Odds as of June 3 from DraftKings. Check out the full list of DraftKings deposit methods before betting on Orioles vs Red Sox.

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In the MLB public betting splits, 58% of wagers on the moneyline market are on the Red Sox, with 61% of the handle on the BoSox. In terms of the run line, a modest 59% of people are backing the home squad, with a whopping 92% of the cash on them. Finally, in the total runs market, 92% of the bets are on Over nine total runs.

Orioles vs Red Sox Injury Report

TeamPlayer NamePositionInjuryStatus
Boston Red SoxWillson Contreras1BWristDay-to-Day
Boston Red SoxTrevor StorySSGroin10-Day IL
Boston Red SoxTriston Casas1BKnee60-Day IL
Boston Red SoxRoman AnthonyLFWrist10-Day IL
Baltimore OriolesRyan Mountcastle1BFoot60-Day IL
Baltimore OriolesJordan Westburg3BUCL60-Day IL
Baltimore OriolesDylan BeaversRFOblique10-Day IL
Baltimore OriolesFélix BautistaRPShoulder60-Day IL
Baltimore OriolesRyan HelsleyRPElbow15-Day IL

How to Watch Orioles vs Red Sox

TV Network: MASN and NESN

Away Team: Baltimore Orioles

Home Team: Boston Red Sox

Date: Wednesday, June 3

Game Time: 6:45 PM ET / 3:45 PM PT

Venue: Fenway Park

Location: Boston, Massachusetts

Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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