Freeman, Arenado, Carpenter Locked in Battle Atop NL MVP Odds

• Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Carpenter are the three favorites for NL MVP
• Carpenter has enjoyed a massive jump, opening the season at +17500, but settling in at +400
• Which one is the best bet?

The NL MVP award is coming down to a three horse race. One opened the 2018 MLB season as a favorite, one a long-shot, and one has emerged out of nowhere.

Here’s where these three sit now, and how their 2018 NL MVP Odds have fluctuated over the season.

2018 NL MVP Odds

Nolan Arenado opened the season among the favorites. He sat at an average of +500 in March, and things haven’t changed. He may not be the favorite now, but he’s not far off at +175.

The title of favorite belongs to Freddie Freeman. The Braves’ first baseman was at +2000 when the season opened. In helping Atlanta to the top of their division, his odds have shortened to +150.

The longest of long shots was Matt Carpenter. Carpenter was a ridiculous +17500 in March. Now he’s third at +400. If you put money on the Leicester City of NL MVP candidates, it has likely been one hell of a ride.

If you haven’t made a wager yet, or want to make another one, let us help break this down for you.

Freeman, Arenado, and Carpenter’s 2018 Season Stats

Can Matt Carpenter Continue this Magical Run and Win NL MVP?

Carpenter has enjoyed a really nice career, but it’s always been in bits and pieces.

In 2013 he hit a league-best 55 doubles and added a .318 average. After a drop off in 2014, Carpenter notched three-straight 20 homer seasons, but the average fell off into the .270s.

#STLCards 1B Matt Carpenter has a novel routine. He takes 150 lefty swings and 50 from the right side every day. That work ethic and attentiveness to detail have vaulted him into the NL MVP conversation after he bottomed out at .140 in May. https://t.co/hKlsnPsQ5O

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) August 22, 2018

While he may not have bumped the average up, people are taking notice of what may be Carpenter’s finest season.

It’s only August and he’s already set a career-high in homers. He’s on pace to match his career-high in RBI, and he should have 40+ doubles.

Carpenter leads the NL in homers, but he’s well back in RBI. He’s one of two players with 25+ home runs and less than 70 batted in. His OBP is behind Freeman’s and Arenado’s, but he’s got both in slugging percentage and leads Freeman in OPS.

His pre and post-All Star splits could sway things in his favor if he keeps it up.

In 89 games before the All Star game, Carpenter hit 19 of his home runs and drove in 43. He’s already hit 15 homers and added 26 RBI post-break.

He’s trending upwards in all major categories, and he’s making a strong NL MVP push. But keep in mind, the last player to win NL MVP without either a .300 batting average or 100+ RBI was Kirk Gibson in 1988.

The NL MVP case for Nolan Arenado

Arenado may have the best case for NL MVP.

I think Nolan Arenado is the front runner for NL MVP. The best defense from third base, plays hard everyday.

— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) August 20, 2018

A five-time Gold Glove winner, he’s in line for his sixth-straight. His defensive production is simply unmatched by anyone in the NL.

Offensively the Rockies’ superstar has provided what we expected.

Despite sitting behind Carpenter in the home run race, Arenado is on pace for another 35+ homer/100+ RBI season. He probably won’t hit three-straight seasons of at least 130 batted in, but he won’t have to.

Arenado may be fifth in the NL RBI chase, but he’s clear of his MVP competitors by at least 10. He’s one of just two players in baseball (J.D. Martinez) with a .300 average, 30 home runs, and 80 RBI.

The NL leader in Offensive WAR (4.7), Arenado also has something the other two don’t have. Name recognition. He’s as decorated as decorated can get. The only thing he’s missing is postseason success, and an NL MVP.

That’s not to say that he’ll just be handed it, but it doesn’t hurt to have one of the most recognizable names in the game.

The NL MVP case for Freddie Freeman

While Ronald Acuna Jr. has taken the world by storm, the Braves wouldn’t be here without Freeman.

Freeman has been a consistent presence his entire career. Since 2011 he’s hit below .275 just once. He’s also missed the 20 home mark just twice in that span. The RBI numbers haven’t been there, but he hasn’t had the support. This is the first time since 2013 that the Braves aren’t in the bottom ten in runs scored.

This year they’re sixth.

And during this magical NL East run, Freeman has chugged along consistently.

The only month he’s hit under .300 was June, where he still hit .277. He’s driven in at least 14 runs each month, and other than May he’s banged out at least 10 extra-base hits per month.

With Freeman the question becomes: Will winning the NL batting crown be enough? Right now he’s just three points clear of Christian Yelich and Nick Markakis, but he’s outside the top ten in homers and ninth in RBI.

NL MVP race seems to be narrowing. Among the lead candidates:
Freddie Freeman 5 WAR, .401 OBP
Nolan Arenado 5 WAR, 30 HR
Paul Goldschmidt 5 WAR, 29 HR
Matt Carpenter 4.8 WAR, 34 HR, .383 OBP
Javier Baez 4.3 WAR, 26 HR, 75 runs

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 23, 2018

The lead in average is the hardest to maintain, but if Freeman wants to lay claim to the NL MVP, he’ll have to do it.

Which one is the best bet for 2018 NL MVP?

While the race will be tight, Nolan Arenado will be standing atop the mountain when all is said and done.

He has the balance across the categories, the defensive pedigree, and the reputation.

And if the Rockies either win the NL West or sneak into the playoffs ahead of the Dodgers, the centerpiece of that second half surge deserves some recognition.

Arenado adds another Gold Glove and his first NL MVP to his trophy case this year.