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Lux’s NL ROY Odds Have Improved from +350 to +200; Second-Favorite Is +1034

Gavin Lux at the plate with LAD
Gavin Lux opened as the runaway favorite for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year award ... then his odds got significantly shorter. Photo by @MLBTradeRumors (Twitter).
  • Infielder Gavin Lux of the Los Angeles Dodgers the clear ROY favorite in the NL at +200
  • Brendan Rodgers and MacKenzie Gore, Lux’s closest rivals, have seen odds drop to +1000
  • See the odds, analysis and best bet for NL Rookie of the Year below

The race for October (or whatever month the playoffs begin this year) may not have officially started yet, but the race for the National League Rookie of the Year title is already in full swing, it would seem.

In the midst of spring training eight weeks ago, Gavin Lux of the Los Angeles Dodgers was already the runaway favorite for the award at +350. While he has yet to swing a bat in anger as the regular season continues to be caught in a COVID-19-induced holding pattern, his grip on the award has only tightened if the odds are to be believed. The young infielder has been bet down to +200 in the NL Rookie of the Year odds.

The next-best odds on the Senior Circuit belong to MacKenzie Gore of the San Diego Padres and Brendan Rodgers of the Colorado Rockies, who fell to north of +1000.

2020 National League Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Team Odds
Gavin Lux Los Angeles Dodgers +200
MacKenzie Gore San Diego Padres +1034
Carter Kieboom Washington Nationals +1135
Brendan Rodgers Colorado Rockies +1168
Dustin May Los Angeles Dodgers +1201
Dylan Carlson St. Louis Cardinals +1202
Mitch Keller Pittsburgh Pirates +1269
Jon Duplantier Arizona Cardinals +1635
Nico Hoerner Chicago Cubs +1737
Cristian Pache Atlanta Braves +1937

Odds as of Apr. 28, 2020.

LA’s Latest Shining Light

After powering through Triple-A with a .392 batting average last year, Lux got a taste of major-league pitching to finish out the season. And he did little to diminish his prospects of winning the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year in that small window, batting .240 in 75 at-bats, powering in two home runs and nine RBI to boot.

He also grabbed the opportunity to play in four postseason games, where he hit a pinch-hit solo shot in his first playoff at-bat.

Though he will be trying to find his spot in a star-studded Dodgers lineup, if he continues along his career curve, he should have plenty of opportunity to produce. In three seasons, the 21-year-old has gone from Single-A to Double-A to Triple-A, improving his on-base percentages in every stop along the way.

Though his first crack at the major leagues resulted in an OBP of just .305, having seen the quality of pitching in The Show and with an extra-long off-season to hone his craft, Lux should be fine whenever the 2020 season gets under way.

Best of the Rest

While Rodgers and Gore have seen their odds slip to +1168 and +1034, respectively, they should both be in position to post solid numbers in their rookie campaigns.

Rodgers, providing he has returned to full health after a number of injuries led to extended rookie eligibility, should have a field day at Coors Field.

Left-hander Gore went 9-2 with a 1.69 ERA in the minor leagues in 2019, which is where he will likely begin 2020. So getting playing time might be the biggest obstacle to him putting up a ROY-worthy campaign.

Outside Shots

Outfielders Dylan Carlson of the St. Louis Cardinals and Cristian Pache of the Atlanta Braves are both north of +1200 in the NL Rookie of the Year odds (+1937 in Pache’s case). But both have compelling cases if Lux stumbles.

Like Lux, both play on competitive clubs that will be in the running for the postseason, and both have outstanding speed and are above-average defenders. But while Pache has struggled to find his power, moving from zero home runs in 2017 to nine in 2018 and 12 last season, his biggest problem might be finding a spot in a crowded Braves outfield.

Carlson should have no such problem following the departure of Marcell Ozuna from STL in free agency. After registering 26 homers and 20 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last year, the 21-year-old could be ready to fill the void after posting a .418 OBP and five home runs in 18 games at Triple-A in 2019.

Pick: Dylan Carlson (+1202)

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