Lux’s NL ROY Odds Have Improved from +350 to +200; Second-Favorite Is +1034
- Infielder Gavin Lux of the Los Angeles Dodgers the clear ROY favorite in the NL at +200
- Brendan Rodgers and MacKenzie Gore, Lux’s closest rivals, have seen odds drop to +1000
- See the odds, analysis and best bet for NL Rookie of the Year below
The race for October (or whatever month the playoffs begin this year) may not have officially started yet, but the race for the National League Rookie of the Year title is already in full swing, it would seem.
In the midst of spring training eight weeks ago, Gavin Lux of the Los Angeles Dodgers was already the runaway favorite for the award at +350. While he has yet to swing a bat in anger as the regular season continues to be caught in a COVID-19-induced holding pattern, his grip on the award has only tightened if the odds are to be believed. The young infielder has been bet down to +200 in the NL Rookie of the Year odds.
The next-best odds on the Senior Circuit belong to MacKenzie Gore of the San Diego Padres and Brendan Rodgers of the Colorado Rockies, who fell to north of +1000.
2020 National League Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Lux | Los Angeles Dodgers | +200 |
| MacKenzie Gore | San Diego Padres | +1034 |
| Carter Kieboom | Washington Nationals | +1135 |
| Brendan Rodgers | Colorado Rockies | +1168 |
| Dustin May | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1201 |
| Dylan Carlson | St. Louis Cardinals | +1202 |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates | +1269 |
| Jon Duplantier | Arizona Cardinals | +1635 |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | +1737 |
| Cristian Pache | Atlanta Braves | +1937 |
Odds as of Apr. 28, 2020.
LA’s Latest Shining Light
After powering through Triple-A with a .392 batting average last year, Lux got a taste of major-league pitching to finish out the season. And he did little to diminish his prospects of winning the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year in that small window, batting .240 in 75 at-bats, powering in two home runs and nine RBI to boot.
He also grabbed the opportunity to play in four postseason games, where he hit a pinch-hit solo shot in his first playoff at-bat.
How’d Gavin Lux do in his first career postseason AB? Asking for a friend pic.twitter.com/ZSMp1Hpr11
— Dodgers Tailgate (@DodgersTailgate) October 4, 2019
Though he will be trying to find his spot in a star-studded Dodgers lineup, if he continues along his career curve, he should have plenty of opportunity to produce. In three seasons, the 21-year-old has gone from Single-A to Double-A to Triple-A, improving his on-base percentages in every stop along the way.
Though his first crack at the major leagues resulted in an OBP of just .305, having seen the quality of pitching in The Show and with an extra-long off-season to hone his craft, Lux should be fine whenever the 2020 season gets under way.
Best of the Rest
While Rodgers and Gore have seen their odds slip to +1168 and +1034, respectively, they should both be in position to post solid numbers in their rookie campaigns.
Brendan Rodgers is showing everyone why Colorado grabbed him with the No. 3 pick in the 2015 #MLBDraft.
The #Rockies top prospect is 3-for-3, including this RBI 2B that had an exit velocity of 101 mph.
Live stats for all the @Rockies top prospects: https://t.co/RaJ2tx1M3t pic.twitter.com/oWQew9690s
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 23, 2019
Rodgers, providing he has returned to full health after a number of injuries led to extended rookie eligibility, should have a field day at Coors Field.
Left-hander Gore went 9-2 with a 1.69 ERA in the minor leagues in 2019, which is where he will likely begin 2020. So getting playing time might be the biggest obstacle to him putting up a ROY-worthy campaign.
Outside Shots
Outfielders Dylan Carlson of the St. Louis Cardinals and Cristian Pache of the Atlanta Braves are both north of +1200 in the NL Rookie of the Year odds (+1937 in Pache’s case). But both have compelling cases if Lux stumbles.
#Braves top prospect Cristian Pache belted his first Triple-A home run on Thursday for Gwinnett. He's batting .342 with 7 RBI and 8 runs scored over his last 10 games. pic.twitter.com/DezBIoX7B2
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) August 30, 2019
Like Lux, both play on competitive clubs that will be in the running for the postseason, and both have outstanding speed and are above-average defenders. But while Pache has struggled to find his power, moving from zero home runs in 2017 to nine in 2018 and 12 last season, his biggest problem might be finding a spot in a crowded Braves outfield.
"I hate to do this… [but he's] the Albert Pujols or Oscar Taveras type."#STLCards fans aren't the only ones excited about top prospect Dylan Carlson. Cardinals President John Mozeliak had some high praise for the young outfielder who he says we should see in STL in 2020. pic.twitter.com/Zc2ZNifT0g
— Corey Miller (@corey_miller5) December 8, 2019
Carlson should have no such problem following the departure of Marcell Ozuna from STL in free agency. After registering 26 homers and 20 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last year, the 21-year-old could be ready to fill the void after posting a .418 OBP and five home runs in 18 games at Triple-A in 2019.
Pick: Dylan Carlson (+1202)
For the last 20 years, Paul Attfield has worked in sports media. Starting out in his native Britain with the likes of The Independent, he eventually switched continents, with his work appearing in the likes of the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post and Yahoo Sports since.
