Mets vs Brewers Picks & Odds (April 3)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Milwaukee is a -125 moneyline favorite in the Mets vs Brewers odds on Monday
- The Mets will start Carlos Carrasco (2022: 15-7, 3.97 ERA), while Milwaukee will hand the ball to Freddy Peralta (2022: 4-4, 3.58 ERA)
- See below for the Mets vs Brewers odds and predictions
The Mets are supposed to be an NL Pennant contender this season. Through their first series of 2023 they certainly look the part. New York is fresh off taking three of four from Miami, yielding only eights runs in the process.
Their season opening road trip continues on Monday in Milwaukee, versus a Brewers club that’s off to a strong start of its own. Milwaukee shook off an Opening Day loss to take the final two games of their three-game set with the Cubs, and have been pegged as the home chalk in Monday’s MLB odds.
Mets vs Brewers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +105 | +1.5 (-195) | O 8 (-105) |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -125 | -1.5 (+165) | U 8 (-115) |
The Brewers are currently -125 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 8. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 pm ET at American Family Field, with cloudy, 52 degree game time temperatures, and a 40% chance of rain on deck.
Odds as of April 2 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
New York vs Milwaukee Probable Pitchers
Milwaukee will hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, as they chase a third straight win. Peralta is coming off an injury riddled 2022 campaign that saw him make only 17 starts. A shoulder strain was the primary culprit, but all reports out of Brewers camp during Spring Training suggests he’s in line for a bounce back year. Peralta pitched into the sixth inning in his final spring outing, striking out six. It was just the third time since last May he’s gone that deep into a game, and Milwaukee is hoping he can return to the form he flashed in 2021.
Peralta was 10-5 that season, with a 2.81 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 12.2 K/9. If he puts up those types of number this season, he’ll be an NL Cy Young odds contender.
Carrasco vs Peralta 2022 Stats
| 15-7 | Record | 4-4 |
| 3.97 | ERA | 3.58 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| .272 | OBA | .190 |
| 3.7 | SO/W Ratio | 3.2 |
The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco as they look to continue to silence enemy bats. New York’s pitching is a big reason they’re a top-four World Series odds contender, and not many teams boast a number four starter with as much experience as Carrasco. The four-time 14-game winner was victorious in 15 of his 22 decisions last season, and is set to begin his 14th MLB campaign.
His history against the Brewers however, is not great. He was shelled in his lone start against them in 2022, and the Milwaukee lineup is currently slashing .307/.366/.520 off him over 75 at-bats.
Mets vs Brewers Betting Trends
Willy Adams has had the most success against Carrasco, posting seven hits, including a home run, in nine at-bats. Adams is off to a slow start to the season, as are the rest of his teammates. Milwaukee enters play batting .162 through three games, and are one of four teams without a homer. They’ve struck out at one of MLB’s highest rates, but have been the benefactors of some quality pitching. The Brewers are yielding just three runs per game so far, with their bullpen allowing only three earned runs in 10+ innings of work.
Phamtastic day for @TphamLV! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/SUrku0ZJYU
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 2, 2023
New York on the other hand, has been a bit more balanced. Their pitching has been lights out as expected, but they’ve also been much more productive at the plate. Mark Canha, Pete Alonso, Tommy Pham and Starlin Marte have done the bulk of the damage, and there’s no real weak link in the lineup. The Mets were a top-five line-up in 2022, and have more than enough talent to be once again this season.
Mets vs Brewers Predictions
Despite New York’s strong start offensively, this game profiles as an under candidate. Peralta is reportedly back to his old self, and he’s had the Mets number in the past. He’s held current New York batters to a .146 average and .293 slugging percentage over his career, and the weather on Monday won’t do batters any favors.
Freddy Peralta, Wicked Sliders. 🤢
And ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/3tAmSKj7Eh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2023
New York’s pitching meanwhile, has not shown any kinks in the armor yet, and that’s unlikely to change given Milwaukee’s struggles at the plate. Play the under in this matinee affair.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (-105)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
