Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Picks & Props for Sunday Night Baseball

• The Mets and Phillies play the rubber match of their three game series tonight on Sunday Night Baseball
• I’m predicting a lopsided Philadelphia win based on the distinct pitching advantage
• Get the Mets vs Phillies predictions, picks and props for Sunday Night Baseball, below

The Philadelphia Phillies (40-35) host the New York Mets (34-41) at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday Night Baseball, with first pitch set for 7:20 PM EST on NBC. Continuing their series after a lopsided 15-3 win, the Phillies look to replicate their dominant offensive showing as home favorites in the MLB odds.

In the previous matchup, the Phillies exploded for 17 hits and four home runs. Elite sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber did the bulk of the damage, hitting for the cycle and clubbing three dingers respectively.

Meanwhile, the underdog Mets managed just eight hits and three runs, though Mark Vientos and Carson Benge each hit a home run in the defeat. Below, I’ll breakdown the top Mets vs Phillies predictions, picks and props for Sunday Night Baseball.

Mets vs Phillies Predictions and Picks for Sunday Night Baseball

• Phillies -1.5 (+110 at Bet365)
• Over 8 Runs (-110 at Caesars)

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My two favorite picks tonight are the Phillies -1.5 on the runline and Over 8 runs. The statistical profile in the MLB starting lineups points heavily toward backing the Phillies to win decisively. The handicap for this game begins and ends with the massive discrepancy on the mound.

The Phillies are 32-19 (62.7%) as a betting favorite this season, while the Mets win just 30.4% of their games (7-16) as an underdog. Given the potency of the World Series odds contender’s lineup, Philadelphia can easily clear this total on their own, just like they did on Saturday.

Zack Wheeler vs David Peterson Stats

As for the starting pitching matchup, Zack Wheeler has been a force for the Phillies this season. Boasting a 6-1 record, a 2.01 ERA, and an 0.85 WHIP, Wheeler limits opposing batters to a .174 average. Serving as a reliable innings-eater, he averages 6.27 innings per start over his last 10 outings with excellent command (2.15 BB/9). His underlying metrics, including a 3.39 FIP, validate his run prevention.

David Peterson has struggled to a 1-5 record, hampered by a 7.56 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .331 against him. While his 3.75 FIP suggests some poor defensive support, Peterson frequently hurts himself with free passes. Over his last 10 appearances, he has issued 3.98 walks per nine innings, elevating his pitch count and forcing early exits.

Mets vs Phillies Stats

The Phillies hold a significant edge in nearly every offensive category. Their lineup thrives at home, posting a .759 OPS (7th in MLB) and a .253 batting average (8th). This translates to 4.73 runs per game at Citizens Bank Park. They also utilize their speed effectively, swiping 0.85 bases per game. Anchored by Harper and Schwarber, this offense consistently punishes pitching mistakes.

The Mets struggle away from Citi Field. The Mets rank near the bottom of the league in road scoring, scraping together just 3.77 runs per game (28th). Their .658 road OPS (29th) and .229 batting average (26th) highlight a lineup struggling to string base hits together. Both teams share an 89.2 mph average exit velocity, but the Mets’ hard contact frequently results in routine groundouts.

Mets vs Phillies Odds for Sunday Night Baseball

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Mets vs Phillies Props for Sunday Night Baseball

• David Peterson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+101 at DraftKings)
• Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Hits (-162 at DraftKings)

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In the MLB props market, my best bet is Peterson Under 4.5 Strikeouts. Fading Peterson is backed by an overwhelming situational trend. The Mets starter has failed to exceed 4.5 strikeouts in seven consecutive games.

Peterson has also fallen short of this strikeout total in four straight road games and three straight starts against the Phillies. Securing plus-money odds on a trend this consistent offers a distinct analytical edge.

For bettors looking to back an offensive prop, Mets infielder Marcus Semien provides a reliable floor. Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, Semien has recorded a base hit in four of his last five matchups, an 80% success rate.