Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Odds, Picks & Predictions for March 29 (UPDATED)

• The Brewers and Mets meet in the Big Apple on March 29
• Freddy Peralta starts for Milwaukee while Jose Quintana gets the nod for New York
• See the Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets odds, picks, and predictions for Opening Day

Two teams adjusting to depleted starting rotations meet in their first game of the 2024 MLB season on Friday afternoon (after a postponement on Thursday). Without Corbin Burnes (Orioles) or Brandon Woodruff (shoulder surgery) in the mix, the Milwaukee Brewers (92-70, 43-38 away) send Freddy Peralta to the mound on Opening Day opposite Jose Quintana for the New York Mets (75-87, 43-38 home), who at this time last year had both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer on the roster.

Oddsmakers have listed the Brewers vs Mets odds as a veritable pick’em.

Brewers vs Mets Odds

The Mets are slight -115 moneyline favorites over the Brewers in the MLB odds for Opening Day, with the Brewers at -105 to win straight-up. The game total is sitting at just 7.5.

The Mets were one of the best under bets in the league last year at 67-88-7 O/U. Only Cleveland and San Francisco hit more unders. Milwaukee’s O/U record also leaned heavily to the under at 73-85-6.

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Odds as of March 27 at BetMGM.

Milwaukee vs NYM Betting Splits

The MLB public betting splits show the public hammering the hometown Mets on the moneyline. So far, 91% of moneyline handle is on New York to win on just 61% of the tickets.

The public went 1,447-966-18 on its moneyline plays last year but take that SU record with a grain of salt as the public was loath to back moneyline underdogs.

Freddy Peralta vs Jose Quintana

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

Mets Add JD Martinez to Subpar Offense

After scoring just 717 runs last year (4.42 runs per game, 11th-fewest in MLB), the Mets signed free agent designated hitter JD Martinez last Saturday. In a one-year stint with the Dodgers last year, Martinez slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs, 27 doubles, and 103 RBI.

Martinez joins a batting order anchored by Pete Alonso (.821 OPS, 46 home runs, 118 RBI) and Francisco Lindor (.806 , 31 HR, 98 RBI).

Peralta has mostly dominated the Mets batters that he’s faced. In 52 total at-bats, New York hitters are slashing just .154/.254/.346 against the 27-year-old righty with two homers and two doubles.

Alonso is 1-for-4 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout. Lindos is also 1-for-4 with a home run, three walks, and three Ks. Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo are a combined 0-for-9 with just one walk and three strikeouts.

Peralta made just one start against NYM last season, and it was coincidentally his first of the season. Peralta pitched a scoreless six innings in a 10-0 Milwaukee win, allowing just two hits and three walks with seven Ks on April 3.

Brewers Beef-up Lineup with Rhys Hoskins

The Brewers were also among the more anemic offenses in baseball last season with 728 runs scored, just nine more than the Mets. But thanks to a solid starting staff (3.94 ERA) and an elite bullpen (3.40 ERA), Milwaukee allowed just 647 runs last year, the fewest in the majors.

With Burnes gone to Baltimore and Woodruff injured, the Brewers figure to surrender more runs this season, but they are also likely to have a more-potent lineup with the addition of Rhys Hoskins from the Phillies.

Hoskins is coming off a 30-homer, 33-double season with Philadelphia in which he recorded a career-best 3.1 WAR despite his OPS dropping under .800 for the first time in his five-plus-year career.

Only three Brewers accounted for more than 50 RBI last season, but all three are return: shortstop Willy Adames (.717 OPS, 24 HR, 80 RBI), outfielder Christian Yelich (.818 OPS, 19 HR, 76 RBI), and catcher William Contreras (.828 OPS, 17 HR, 78 RBI).

The Milwaukee hitters have a much better history against Quintana than the Mets do against Peralta. In 66 total at-bats, the Brewers lineup has a .288 average with three homers, seven doubles, and just 15 Ks. Adames, Contreras, and Hoskins have all taken Quintana deep once.

Quintana didn’t face Milwaukee in an injury-shortened 2023. He faced the Brewers three times in 2022, though, while still with the Cardinals. He went 14.1 combined innings, allowing 14 hits, four walks, and six earned runs with an impressive 18 strikeouts. St Louis went 1-2 straight-up in those three games.

Brewers vs Mets Predictions

The Mets are coming off a relatively awful season and really didn’t do much to address the issues that plagued them in 2023. Management is simply hoping for better production from the existing lineup.

I don’t love Milwaukee’s chances of repeating as NL Central champs – or even getting back to the postseason – with two of its top-three starters gone, but Peralta gives the Brewers a decided edge in the starting pitcher matchup and they still figure to have a much better bullpen than the Mets, who finished 22nd in the majors in bullpen ERA last year.

 MIL vs NYM picks: Brewers moneyline (-105)