San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Predictions, Picks & Betting Lines (Game 1)

• The Chicago Cubs are -115 moneyline favorites over the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series
• Chicago is seeking its first postseason win since 2017
• Read below for my Padres vs Cubs picks, betting lines, and starting pitchers for Game 1

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Two teams that ended the regular season with some juice collide in the National League Wild Card round on Tuesday, when the Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of a best-of-three series.

It appears to be an evenly matched series, which is likely why the books are lightly tabbing the Cubbies as favorites in Tuesday’s MLB odds.

Action gets underway at 3pm ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, with ABC carrying the broadcast. It’ll be a balmy 75 degrees with sunny skies and light clouds for first pitch.

Go to: SD vs CHC Odds || SD vs CHI Picks || Starting Pitcher Comparison

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Odds

San Diego slides in as a mild -105 road underdog on the moneyline, with Chicago’s at -115, while laying 1.5 on the run line at +185 odds. The total sits at seven runs, and the books see it tight across the board: seven is the highest total of any of the four Wild Card games on Tuesday.

Odds as of September 30th at bet365. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on the MLB playoffs today. 

Padres vs Cubs Picks (Game 1)

• Cubs Moneyline (-115 at bet365)

Both teams begin the playoffs with bottom-four World Series odds.

Chicago hasn’t been in the postseason since 2020, and hasn’t picked up a playoff win since 2017, compared to the Padres, who will be making their fourth playoff trip in six seasons, after posting back-to-back 90-win seasons for the first time in franchise history.

I’m siding with the home team, because, in this particular matchup, home field does have an advantage.

The Cubs finished the year at 50-31 at Wrigley, and finished an impressive 46-24 as a betting favorite. Chicago closed out the year with a sweep of the Cardinals, while taking four of their final six on home turf. They’re in a solid groove right now.

A good sign was the awakening of some bats prior to the playoffs. Seiya Suzuki rediscovered his home run swing, belting five dingers in the final four games, after failing to connect on a long ball the previous seven weeks.

Throw in Nico Hoerner batting .337 in September and Pete Crow-Armstrong with hits in four straight, including a pair of big flys, and their hitting numbers suddenly look like they have a little more pop.

Chicago Cubs Batting Stats

San Diego, meanwhile, ripped off seven wins in its last eight, but the final six were also on their home turf. They’re a different cat on the road, finishing 38-43 on the season, and 23-29 as road ‘dogs.

Offensively about the only thing that the Padres have over the Cubbies is batting average, where they finished the year seventh at a .252 clip, with Chicago in at .249 (13th).

It’s been a rough second half for Seiya Suzuki, but he still managed to pull off a 30 HR/100 RBI season.

Only 13 other players have accomplished 30 HR and 100 RBI this season.pic.twitter.com/seE7UQ4fTl

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) September 26, 2025

The teams rank ninth and 10th, respectively, in OBP, but San Diego drops into the bottom half of the league in both OPS and slugging percentage.

Perhaps the biggest reason, though, that the Cubs take Game 1, is their noticeable pitching advantage, which we talk about next.

SD Padres vs CHI Cubs Starting Pitchers for Game 1

By overall stats, Nick Pivetta seems like a fine candidate to hand the ball to in Game 1.

However, the Padres’ starter has been a different pitcher on the road, and, with all games in this series in the Windy City, he may have been better served as the second or third starter (if necessary).

Nick Pivetta on what it means to him to be named the Game 1 starter for the Wild Card Series, the importance of winning Game 1 and the keys to his success this season: pic.twitter.com/ebHiojk9aa

— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) September 29, 2025

Pivetta was 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 14 road starts, surrendering 13 home runs 78.2 innings. That’s a far different split than at home, where he’s 8-1 with a 2.36 ERA, serving up fewer long balls (9) in far more innings (103 in 17 starts).

He’ll be making his first postseason appearance since 2021. His only playoff experience are three appearances while with the Red Sox in 2021.

The 32-year-old is 2-2 against the Cubs in six games (five starts) with a 3.96 ERA. He split a pair of outings vs Chicago in April, notably losing 7-1 at Wrigley on April 5.

Nick Pivetta vs Matthew Boyd 2025 Stats

Matthew Boyd has dominated at Wrigley going 12-1 in 15 starts while posting a 2.51 ERA, easily his best split. The lefty struck out 79 in his 89.2 innings, and held opponents to a .209 average.

He faced the Padres for the first time in his career in 2025. In two appearances, he went 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

The Padres went 1-1 with 2 runs scored over 11.1 innings against Matthew Boyd back in April, earlier this season.

It’s worth noting that he had a 5.51 ERA over his final 9 starts of the season. https://t.co/ymfpWTs7GC pic.twitter.com/O1pT05YIPK

— Al Scott (@AlScott1998) September 29, 2025

Boyd pitched against Pivetta in the April 5 blowout, holding the Padres to five hits across six scoreless innings, walking one and fanning five.

With a game that predicts to be close, it’s the Cubs’ slight advantages on the mound, at the dish, and in front of their home fans that will all add up in Game 1.