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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (May 14)

Ian Jones

by Ian Jones in MLB Baseball

Updated May 13, 2024 · 7:48 PM PDT

Philadelphia Phillies batter Bryson Stott begins to run after hitting a baseball.
May 7, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second base Bryson Stott (5) hits a single during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NL East-leading Phillies attempt to go 2-for-2 in New York against the Mets on Tuesday
  • Philadelphia won the first of their two-game series, tying it late before winning 5-4 in the 10th inning
  • See the Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets odds, starting pitchers, and predictions for May 14

It’s a quick turnaround for a pair NL East rivals as the Philadelphia Phillies (29-13, 14-6 away, 21-19-2 O/U) finish off a two-game set on Tuesday against the New York Mets (19-21, 10-13 home, 19-21 O/U) at Citi Field at 1:10 pm ET.

Taking the mound for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, who’ll be looking for his fifth win of the season. He’ll be up against Mets’ right-hander Jose Butto, who finally picked up his first win in 2024, after opening with three no decisions and two losses.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) -140 -1.5 (+125) O 7.5 (-110)
New York Mets (Butto) +115 +1.5 (-155) U 7.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 13th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Use promo code DIME1500 to claim the latest BetMGM sign up bonus before betting PHI/NYM. 

As of Monday night, the visiting Phillies are listed as -140 moneyline favorites, while MLB odds list the Mets as +120 to win.

Despite sitting as underdogs at home, New York is priced at -155 to keep the game within one run, while Philadelphia is +125 to win by at least two. The over/under is at 7.5, with both sides getting odds of -110.

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With last night’s win, the Phillies have won eight of their last ten while maintaining their two-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Despite being owners of the best record in the league, however, Philadelphia are only getting +1200 to win the MLB World Series, remaining behind the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, and Orioles.

Meanwhile, the loss dropped New York to 19-21 on the season. Though they’re only two games below .500, they now sit nine games back of the Phillies in the NL East.

New York had a chance to pull a game back on Monday, but Bryson Stott had other plans. The second baseman homered in the ninth to tie it and hit a sac fly in the 10th to clinch it for the Phillies.

Philadelphia vs New York Starting Pitchers (May 14)

Tuesday afternoon, it’s the front-end of one rotation versus the back-end of another. The Phillies are sending their #2 starter Aaron Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA, 47 SO) to the mound, while the Mets counter with Jose Butto (1-2, 3.00 ERA, 34 SO).

Despite getting roughed up by the Blue Jays last Wednesday, the performance of Aaron Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA, 47 SO) so far this season helps illustrate why the Phillies are favorites in New York on Tuesday. Prior to the anomaly against Toronto, Nola went undefeated in six games, booking four wins in that time without giving up more than three earned runs in an outing. He’s thrived on the road in 2024, going 3-0 with 17 SO and an ERA of 2.13.

From a run-prevention perspective, Nola’s career splits at Citi Field aren’t quite as cheery, but they aren’t far off his current 2024 splits, either. The Mets’ slash line at home against Nola is middling at .219/.272/.367 with an ERA at 3.67.  However, he’s only 5-6 at Citi Field, giving up 11 home runs across 13 starts.

Aaron Nola vs Jose Butto

4-2 Record 1-2
3.67 ERA 3.00
3.74 xERA 4.32
1.20 WHIP 1.15
23.3% SO% 25.2%

Though it took six games for Jose Butto to earn his first win, he’s pitched well to start the season. Case in point: in the three games that resulted in a no-decision for Butto, he’s posted a solid 1.68 ERA. Only once has Butto failed to get past the fourth inning in 2024, while cultivating an incredible 9.27 strikeouts per nine innings.

However, it’s Butto’s specific experience against the Phillies that may give bettors pause in backing him. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but in three starts the Phillies have torched Butto to the tune of 18 hits, 13 earned runs, and 4 home runs.

It’s possible the powerful left-handed hitters in the Phillies’ lineup will continue to add to those numbers, and things may rapidly go south for Butto & the Mets if Kyle Schwarber is back from his day-to-day back injury.

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

The Phillies may have stolen a win late last night in the series opener, but they shouldn’t have to wait until extra innings for a win Tuesday afternoon.

Even with a 1-2 record, Jose Butto has looked solid to open the season. It’s hard to argue with a 9.27 K/9, but this will be the first time this season he faces the powerful lefties in Philadelphia’s lineup. Given that his xERA is sitting well north of his ERA, any luck Butto has benefitted from so far may run out on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Nola and the rest of the Phillies have been solid on the road in 2024, and will likely sweep the Mets in this two-game series in New York.

PHI vs NYM pick: Phillies -1.5 (+125) 

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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