Phillies vs Marlins Odds, Picks & Props to Target (July 31)
- Monday’s Phillies vs Marlins odds list Philadelphia as -115 moneyline favorites
- Taijuan Walker (11-4, 4.06 ERA) takes the ball for the Phillies, while the Marlins counter with Edward Cabrera (5-6, 4.74 ERA)
- Don’t miss the latest Phillies vs Marlins odds, picks, and player prop bets to target below
At the start of the year, if you’d heard the Marlins and Mets had made a big trade at the deadline, you would have assumed Miami was unloading its assets after another failed season. However, you know what happens when you assume.
It was New York, not the Marlins, in fire sale mode, as Miami grabbed former All-Star closer David Robertson for its postseason push. The Marlins (57-49, 33-21 home) enter play on Monday in possession of the final NL Wild Card berth, half a game up on their opponent the Phillies (56-49, 28-29 away).
The two NL East foes will play a four-game set this week, with Philadelphia pegged as the chalk in Game 1 by online sportsbooks in Monday’s MLB odds.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | -115 | -1.5 (+150) | O 8 (-105) |
| Miami Marlins | -105 | +1.5 (-175) | U 8 (-115) |
The Phillies are currently -115 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 8. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm ET at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida, with cloudy skies and 84 degree game-time temperatures on deck.
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Philadelphia vs Miami Probable Pitchers
Despite Miami’s superior record, it’s the Phillies who get all the attention in the World Series odds. Their +1800 price tag is shorter than all but seven teams, while Miami’s odds are a distant +5000.
Philadelphia will give the ball to Taijuan Walker on Monday, who’s been battling his control of late. Walker has yielded 21 hits, two homers and 13 walks through 23 July innings, after surrendering only one more hit and three fewer walks in 13 more innings in June.
Taijuan Walker ERA by Month:
April: 4.97
May: 6.11
June: 1.50
July: 5.00 pic.twitter.com/Ny3QRG79pF— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) July 21, 2023
Walker was spectacular last month posting a 1.50 ERA in six starts, but has regressed in July. He’s posted a 4.56 ERA in four outings, allowing at least four runs in two of four starts. He currently owns a 7.8 K/9 rate in 2023, which if it holds, will be one of the lowest of his career.
Also working against him is a sub-par history against the Miami regulars in the MLB starting lineups. The Marlins are slashing .282/.309/.412 versus Walker in 131 at-bats, with Bryan De La Cruz, Jon Berti and Yuli Gurriel all hitting north of .400.
Walker vs Cabrera Stats
| 11-4 | Record | 5-6 |
| 4.06 | ERA | 4.74 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.42 |
| .235 | OBA | .218 |
| 2.1 | SO/W Ratio | 2.0 |
The Marlins will counter with Edward Cabrera, who lasted only 2 innings in his last outing due to a blister against the Rays. That start marked just his second after missing five weeks with a shoulder issue, and like Walker, the 25-year-old is batting control issues.
Cabrera has walked eight batters in his last 11 innings of work, while also coughing up three homers. Both Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto have taken him deep in the past, while Trea Turner is 2-for-4 lifetime against the right-hander.
If there’s a silver lining for Miami backers, it’s Cabrera’s home/road splits. He’s 0-6, with a 6.28 ERA as a visitor, but 5-0, with a 2.61 ERA and .218 opponent batting average in his own park.
Phillies vs Marlins Predictions
Cabrera is catching Philadelphia at the right time, as they’ve struggled at the dish over the last 10 days. The Phillies are averaging only 3.6 runs per game during that stretch, while batting a dismal .208. They’ve smacked only five homers over their last nine contests, and have struck out at a 26.3% clip, the seventh highest rate in the Majors.
Never has a 2 second clip summarized my emotions better than this 2 second clip captures how I feel about Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos pic.twitter.com/AhCyBrFtzJ
— Matt Szczypiorski (@matt_ski15) July 30, 2023
The big issue has been the lack of production from their top five hitters. Harper, Turner, Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber all hitting .222 or worse since July 20th, with all but Harper posting an average south of .193. Turner especially has been a disaster, going 5-for-34, with no homers, no RBI, and just three runs.
Phillies vs Marlins 2023 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 9 | Phillies | Marlins | MIA, 7-3 |
| July 8 | Phillies | Marlins | MIA, 5-3 |
| July 7 | Phillies | Marlins | PHI, 4-3 |
| April 12 | Marlins | Phillies | MIA, 3-2 |
| April 11 | Marlins | Phillies | MIA, 8-4 |
| April 10 | Marlins | Phillies | PHI, 15-3 |
Miami meanwhile, has started to show signs of life at the plate after an eight-game losing streak. They scored eight times and pounded 13 hits in a victory over Detroit on Sunday, giving them four wins in their past six games.
They’ve scored at least six runs in three of their last four outings, and are getting serious production from Berti, Luis Arraez, and Garrett Hampson. The latter has five hits in his last eight at-bats, while Arraez leads MLB with a .377 average. He’s been extremely tough on righties like Walker this season, slashing .380/.433/.489, and has six multi-hit games in his last nine starts.
Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline (-105)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
