Picks, Predictions & Props to Bet in Marlins vs Phillies on Jun 16

• The Phillies are big home favorites tonight versus the Marlins
• Strong recent form for both starting pitchers brings the under into play
• Keep reading for my favorite picks, predictions and props to bet in Marlins vs Phillies on June 16, below

It’s an intriguing NL East showdown tonight as the Miami Marlins look to bounce back against the home-favorite Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM EST at Citizens Bank Park, with the MLB weather forecast calling for clear skies and 78 degree temperatures.

The division rivals are continuing their series following Philadelphia securing a dominant 7-0 shutout victory last night. The Phillies offense erupted for 10 hits in that decisive win, including big home runs from JT Realmuto and Gabriel Rincones Jr.

Meanwhile, the Marlins bats went completely cold, managing just five hits in a frustrating shutout loss. Sitting at 38-33, Philadelphia is trying to build momentum by leaning on the power of elite stars like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber to dominate as home favorites in the MLB odds.

Below, you’ll find my favorite picks, predictions and props to bet in the Marlins vs Phillies NL East showdown on June 16th.

Picks & Predictions in Marlins vs Phillies

• Phillies Moneyline (-174 at Bet365)
• Under 8.5 Runs (-118 at DraftKings)

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My favorite bet tonight is the Phillies moneyline. The World Series odds contender will hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo, who has posted a 4.35 ERA while racking up an impressive 10.07 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Marlins counter with Tyler Phillips, who has been sensational with a 1.98 ERA over 48.1 innings. Because both teams feature overall pitching staffs with similar ERAs and relatively modest offensive OPS numbers, I’m also betting under 8.5 runs.

Miami game totals show the Under has hit in 80.0% of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Over has hit in just 37.5% of Philadelphia games this year. Both of these statistics strongly support a low-scoring affair tonight, especially when factoring in that the Marlins are just 12-25 as underdogs this season.

Tyler Phillips vs Jesus Luzardo Stats

Phillips has the immediate edge in run prevention. Boasting an elite .204 opponent batting average, he has done a phenomenal job limiting damage in early-season action. However, his 3.50 FIP suggests he has benefited from some good fortune, making him a potential regression candidate against a potent Philadelphia lineup.

Luzardo possesses a 1.33 WHIP, painting the picture of a pitcher who has battled inconsistency. Yet, the underlying metrics tell a completely different story. His 3.33 FIP is superior to Phillips, indicating the lefty has pitched significantly better than his surface-level 4.35 ERA implies.

Over his last 10 appearances, Luzardo has been sensational, lowering his ERA to 2.89 over 56.0 innings. He maintained his elite strikeout numbers during this stretch with a 9.32 K/9. Meanwhile, Phillips has remained remarkably steady. Over 31.0 recent innings, he managed a 2.03 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.

Marlins vs Phillies Stats

The most glaring statistical mismatch per the MLB starting lineups data is in the power department. Philadelphia is built to inflict heavy damage at Citizens Bank Park, boasting an elite average exit velocity of 89.4 mph. Miami drastically lacks home run power when traveling, ranking 29th overall in road home runs per game.

While Miami cannot match the pure slugging numbers, they hold a distinct advantage on the basepaths. They are incredibly aggressive on the road, stealing an elite 1.12 bases per game. Because they struggle to drive the ball for extra bases, they are entirely dependent on their contact hitters to manufacture runs.

Odds in Marlins vs Phillies

Odds as of June 16. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB tonight.

Props to Bet in Marlins vs Phillies

• Otto Lopez Over 0.5 RBIs (+180 on DraftKings)
• Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Hits (-260 on DraftKings)
• Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits (-145 on DraftKings)

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The MLB props market is teeming with highly actionable situational player trends that boast success rates well above 60%. My best player prop bet is Otto Lopez Over 0.5 RBIs. Lopez has exceeded 0.5 RBIs in three straight games against Philadelphia, a pristine 100% success rate.

I also love Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Hits. Edwards has eclipsed 0.5 hits in eight of his last nine road games according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, equating to an elite 89.0% cover rate. Finally, Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits is a great situational play. Ruiz boasts a 100% success rate over his last three games against the Phillies.