Predictions, Best Bets & How to Watch Cubs vs Phillies on Tuesday

The Phillies’ bats came alive Monday in a 13-7 thrashing of the Chicago Cubs.

Maybe that played a role in the Cubs deciding to start lefty reliever Riley Martin tonight against a left-handed heavy top of the order. Riley, who has never faced the Phillies, will be used as an opener. He’ll go against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, who is 7-2 lifetime against the Cubs.

First pitch is set for 6:40 pm, ET, from Citizens Bank Park, with local broadcasts available on NBC Sports Philadelphia and Marquee Sports Network. TBS and MLB.TV also will provide coverage, which is part of each Fubo TV subscription.

We break down the trends, stats and metrics, and provide the best bets for Cubs at Phillies tonight.

Cubs vs Phillies Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds on Tuesday, April 14 and is subject to change.

The Phillies enter tonight’s matchup as moderate home favorites at -146 on the moneyline, reflecting confidence in their home-field advantage and Nola’s presence on the mound. The Cubs are priced as +122 road underdogs, offering plus-money value for those backing the upset. For bettors eyeing the spread, Philadelphia offers a more lucrative +141 payout to cover the -1.5 runline, while Chicago is heavily juiced at -169 to keep the margin within a single run or win outright.

The betting markets have experienced significant shifts since the opening lines were first posted, particularly concerning the game total. The total originally opened at 8.5 runs (Over -124 / Under +102) but has since been driven up a full run to 9.5 with standard -110 juice on both sides. This dramatic upward movement is the direct result of massive, one-sided betting action following yesterday’s 20-run outburst between these two clubs.

The runline has also seen notable movement due to heavy public backing of the home team. Philadelphia opened at -1.5 (+152) on the spread, but steady action has shortened those odds to +141. As a result, the bookmakers have adjusted Chicago’s +1.5 runline from its opening price of -184 down to -169.

Riley Martin vs Aaron Nola 2026 Stats

Aaron Nola vs Cubs

Cubs Hitters vs Aaron Nola

Cubs vs Phillies Home/Road Stats

Cubs vs Phillies Best Bets & Predictions

Pick #1: Phillies Moneyline (-140 Bet365)

Pick #2: Under 9.5 Runs (-110 at Bet365)

Backing the Phillies Moneyline is the preferred side here. Removing the vigorish, the implied win probabilities sit at 56.85% for Philadelphia and 43.15% for Chicago, ensuring a combined 100% market. Philadelphia’s deeper roster should eventually break through against a Chicago bullpen carrying a 3.98 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

Nola has been reliable, this season and in his career vs. the Cubs. Over 17.1 innings in 2026, the veteran right-hander has posted a 3.64 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an impressive 9.87 K/9 rate. The Cubs’ lineup has struggled with offensive consistency, batting just .229 collectively. This provides a prime opportunity for a premium swing-and-miss artist to rack up punchouts as he works deep into the game.

When attacking the game total, our internal A.I. tools believe taking Under 9.5 Runs is the sharper angle. Both pitching staffs have shown the ability to limit damage—Chicago’s overall staff holds opponents to a .225 batting average, while Philadelphia’s arms have held opposing hitters to a .262 mark. Situational trends heavily favor this outcome: the Under has cashed in 68.75% of Philadelphia’s games this season. With Nola’s proven ability to miss bats and Martin’s stellar start to the campaign, expect a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

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Cubs vs Phillies Top Prop Bets

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-114 on DraftKings): The optimal angle for this matchup. Nola exceeded this total in 2 of his first 3 starts this season.

Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104 on DraftKings): Schwarber homered against his former team on Monday night and these odds provide excellent plus-money returns. Schwarber’s .618 slugging percentage makes him a constant threat to eclipse this number with a single swing.

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Cubs vs Phillies Betting Trends

• Cubs as a Favorite (Season): Chicago has struggled when laying odds this season, posting a 3-5 record (37.5% win percentage) as the betting favorite.
• Cubs as a Favorite (Last 10 Games): Their difficulties as the favorite have continued recently, going 2-4 (33.3% win percentage) in that role over their last 10 contests.
• Phillies Totals (Season): Philadelphia games have consistently trended low-scoring, with the Under cashing in a lucrative 68.75% of their matchups this year.
• Cubs Totals (Season): Chicago has trended heavily toward the Over, with the Over hitting in 75.0% of their overall games.
• Cubs Totals (Last 10 Games): In recent action, the Over has hit in 60.0% of Chicago’s last 10 games.
• Phillies Totals (Last 10 Games): The Under has cashed in 60.0% of Philadelphia’s previous 10 matchups.

Cubs vs Phillies Public Betting Splits & Market Action

Moneyline: The MLB betting public and the overall handle are in total agreement when it comes to picking a straight-up winner.

• Phillies: 79.0% of the tickets and a commanding 81.3% of the money are backing the home favorites.
• Cubs: Only 21.0% of the tickets and 18.7% of the stake are on the road underdogs.

This overwhelming support perfectly aligns with our official prediction to back Philadelphia’s moneyline. Bettors are clearly confident that Nola and a potent lineup will handle business. Interestingly, while the Phillies dominate the overall percentages, late line movement metrics show that the money share on the Cubs has actually increased by 16.5% over time, indicating a slight trickle of underdog money flowing in as first pitch approaches.

Runline Splits: The conviction extends even further into the runline market, where bettors are aggressively laying the -1.5 runs for a plus-money payout.

• Phillies (-1.5): 83.6% of the betting tickets and an overwhelming 91.3% of the money are banking on Philadelphia to win by multiple runs.
• Cubs (+1.5): Just 16.4% of the tickets and a minuscule 8.7% of the money are backing Chicago to keep the game within a run.

Game Total Splits: The most fascinating breakdown of the slate comes by way of the game total. Fresh off yesterday’s shootout, bettors are rushing to the window expecting another track meet.

• OVER: A staggering 94.1% of the tickets and 78.2% of the overall money are hammering the Over.
• UNDER: Only 5.9% of the tickets and 21.8% of the money are supporting the Under.

This heavy, one-sided action sets up a glaring contrast with our recommended betting angle. While we do not justify picks solely on public splits, the inflated number provides substantial value. By fading the massive public consensus, we are trusting the underlying pitching metrics of Nola and Martin to suppress scoring and deliver a much tighter contest than the general betting populace anticipates.

How to Watch: Cubs vs Phillies

• Date: April 14, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• TV Broadcast: TBS, NBC Sports Philadelphia, Marquee Sports Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV (subject to local blackout restrictions)