Rays vs Yankees Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Oct. 2)

• The New York Yankees are -150 home favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays in an afternoon showdown between these American League East rivals on Saturday, October 2
• Tampa Bay won five of the first six meetings with the Yanks this season
• New York is holding a 6-5 advantage in 11 games played since – read below for our betting prediction

The Tampa Bay Rays (99-61, 47-32) and New York Yankees (91-69, 45-34 home) are wrapping up the American League regular season with a three-game set against each other. However, it may not be the last time they meet as opponents in 2021.

The Rays have clinched the AL East Division title. New York is a win away from clinching an AL Wild Card spot in the postseason. As the #1 seed in the AL, the Rays will get the winner of the AL Wild Card game in the AL Divisional playoff round.

Needing the win more than the Rays do, the Yankees are pegged as the -150 home favorites in Saturday’s afternoon tilt between these two teams. The Bronx Bombers are 42-32 as the home chalk in 2021.

Rays vs Yankees Odds

Odds as of October 1st at DraftKings.

First pitch is set for 1:05pm ET at Yankee Stadium. The weather forecast is calling for mainly sunny skies, 19 mph wind and a temperature of 75 degrees.

Baz vs Montgomery

Since being called up to the big leagues, Rays right-hander Shane Baz, 22, is proving to be nothing short of sensational. In two starts, he’s 2-0 with a sparkling 1.69 ERA. He’s showing 14 strikeouts against one walk and a sterling 14.00 strikeout to walks ratio.

He’s worked at least five innings in both starts. Baz has allowed five hits over 10.2 innings pitched. He did get touched for a pair of homers in his September 20 big-league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Shane Baz was all kinds of filthy in his second MLB start:

5.2 IP
0 R
3 H
1 BB
9 K pic.twitter.com/kqnwYU1l7l

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 26, 2021

This will be the first road appearance of his MLB career. He’s never previously faced the Yanks.

Yankees’ lefthander Montgomery is 3-1 over his last four decisions. He’s been on the losing end of one outcome since July 17. Montgomery has allowed one earned run or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts.

Jordan Montgomery last 3 starts:

16.1 IP
17 H
3 ER
2 BB
22 K
1.65 ERA

He's allowed exactly one run in three straight starts

— New York Yankees Stats (@nyyankeesstats) September 27, 2021

In five starts this season against the Rays, Montgomery is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s won his last three starts against Tampa Bay. However, he hasn’t faced the Rays since July 27. Montgomery’s lone loss to Tampa Bay this season came on April 17. It was a 6-3 setback at Yankee Stadium.

Over his MLB career, the New York southpaw is 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 11 starts.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Five Rays batters are hitting .300 or better in their MLB careers when facing Montgomery. Catcher Francisco Mejia is 2-for-5 (.400) with a solo homer. Rightfielder Manuel Margot is 5-for-14 (.357) with a homer and three RBI. Catcher Mike Zunino has homered twice and driven in three runs while batting .333 (2-for-6).

Hitting a 2-run blast for his team's 2nd home run tonight and his 31st of this season so far (putting them up 5-1 against the Tigers), Mike Zunino has tied Toby Hall for the most career home runs recorded by a catcher in @RaysBaseball franchise history (44) pic.twitter.com/1r2e8qQhxD

— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) September 17, 2021

First baseman Ji-Man Choi is 1-for-3 (.333). Shortstop Wander Franco is 1-for-2 (.500). Through he’s only batting .214, leftfielder Randy Arozarena (3-for-14) has homered twice and driven in four runs.

None of the New York batters have ever faced Baz in an MLB game.

Rays vs Yankees Pick

Tampa Bay is an impressive 26-17 straight up this season as a road underdog. At 94-66, the Rays are also the best runline squad in the AL this season.

https://youtu.be/eMVcnmuyVRw

The Yanks hold a one-game lead over the Boston Red Sox (90-70) in the battle for the two AL Wild Card playoff positions. A half-game back of the BoSox are the Seattle Mariners (89-70) and the Toronto Blue Jays (89-71) are right there as well.

The Yankees need a win. However, they’ve yet to see Baz in action, and that could prove problematic. Tampa Bay’s deep roster of pitching arms will make the difference here.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (+130).