Red Sox vs Nationals Odds and Picks (Oct. 2)

• The Boston Red Sox are road favorites over the Washington Nationals on Saturday afternoon
• The Red Sox will reportedly send Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.80) to the mound to face Josiah Gray (2-2, 5.85)
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Boston Red Sox will continue to fight for their postseason lives  against the Washington Nationals at 4:05pm ET Saturday in the second game of a three-game series at Nationals Park.

After snapping a four-game losing streak Wednesday in Baltimore, Boston lost the series finale Thursday night. After winning Friday, manager Alex Cora’s remains firmly in the battle for the second wild-card spot and likely one-game playoff with the Yankees. Following a September that saw them go 14-11 and battle multiple cases of the coronavirus in the clubhouse, the BoSox still have a playoff berth in their sights. They enter Saturday afternoon as favorites.

Meantime, Dave Martinez’s group went 10-18 in September and had lost five of their last six prior to Friday’s action.

Red Sox vs Nationals Odds

Odds as of October 1st at DraftKings.

Probable Pitchers

On the mound, it appears Boston’s Tanner Houck (1-5, 3.80) will face Josiah Gray (2-2, 5.85).

According to FanGraphs, Houck will get the nod in Saturday’s pivotal Game No. 161. In 17 appearances this season — and 12 starts — the 6-foot-5 right-hander doesn’t have any quality outings among his dozen rotation turns. His last start came September 15th, when he went 4.1 innings, allowing four hits, three earned runs and a walk while striking out seven in an eventual 9-4 victory over the Mariners at T-Mobile Park.  Boston has a 9-8 record in games he has appeared in . He’s only gone more than five innings once this season and a complete five inning only three times, so this could be an opener-type situation.

Houck vs Gray Key Stats

Houck possesses a filthy arsenal, including an utterly dirty fastball-slider combo. But is he truly a starter? The 25-year-old has had control issues in his brief career (issuing 3.3 walks/9 IP) and has difficulty facing a lineup the third time through the order. But he should be able to give Cora at least 2-3 innings of quality effort.

Tanner Houck, Wicked 87mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/X5V61l12fF

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 25, 2021

Houck is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in seven road appearances (five starts) this season. In nine day appearances (seven starts), he has a 1-4 record and 4.34 ERA.

As for Gray, the 23-year-old has four quality starts this season among his 12 turns. He strung together three of those in consecutive August starts  In his last outings, the rookie righty went 5.1 innings, allowing four hits, three earned runs and three walks while striking out four Monday in an eventual 5-4 victory over the Rockies at Coors Field. The Nats have gone 6-7 in games he has appeared in this season.

Josiah Gray, Nasty 86mph Slider…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/pdDeFlAQoo

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 22, 2021

Gray is 0-2 with an alarming 6.99 ERA in seven appearances (six starts) at home in 2021. He’s 0-0 with a 6.92 ERA in three day game starts.

Desperation Mode

With neither team possessing any hitter with a history against the respective opposing starter, this one comes down to which team will be able to execute against new faces.

Kiké Hernandez homered on the first pitch of Thursday’s game. But not much went right after that. Boston had lost five of its last six prior to Friday against the Yankees and Orioles, scoring only 19 runs in the process.

Xander Bogaerts went 0-for-3 Thursday and came into the series opener with Washington going 2-for-23 over the past six games.

Because of double plays I think Bogaerts has made 24 outs in 24 plate appearances since the start of the Yankees series.

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) October 1, 2021

Jose Iglesias and Alex Verdugo are the only Red Sox regulars hitting over .300 in the last month. Hunter Renfroe leads the team with five home runs and 16 RBI since September 1st.

While the Red Sox have picked a horrible time for their bats to go quiet, the one recognizable bat in Washington’s lineup has been scorching over the last month. After selling off seemingly half the team at the trade deadline, the Nationals — two years separated from a World Series title — are virtually unrecognizable.

Enter Juan Soto, who has gone 38-for-94 (.404) since September 1st, smacking seven homers and 23 RBI (both team highs) with an incredible 1.256 OPS. Houck and the rest of Saturday’s Boston pitchers will have to pitch to him very carefully.

Red Sox vs Nationals Pick

With neither projected started coming in particularly sharp, this will likely become a bullpen game quickly — and that favors the visiting team. Washington has the second-worst bullpen ERA (5.04) in the National League, and third-worst overall (behind only Arizona and Baltimore). Of course, the O’s just took a series from the floundering Sox.

But I think Boston bounces back in this one. With Chris Sale slated to go in Game No. 162 Sunday, the Red Sox get it done Saturday.

The Pick: Red Sox (-165)