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The Houston Astros Were the Biggest Winner of the MLB Trade Deadline; World Series Odds Sit at +338

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 8:02 PM PDT

Zack Greinke warming up
The Houston Astros made the boldest move of the MLB trade deadline, adding 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke to their already powerful starting rotation. Photo by jnashboulden (flickr).
  • The 2017 World Series-champion Houston Astros picked up pitchers Zack Greinke and Aaron Sanchez at the trade deadline
  • The Astros starting staff already included Cy Young favorites Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole
  • The Atlanta Braves also did well, adding All-Star closer Shane Greene along with Mark Melancon to their ailing bullpen

Based on age-old trade axioms, the Houston Astros won the MLB trade deadline. There’s a long-held theory that the winner of any trade is the team that ends up with the best player. On today’s trade deadline, that team was the Astros.

Houston picked up 2009 American League Cy Young Award-winner Zack Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks to bolster an already deep staff of starting pitchers. Based on a cross-section of leading sportsbooks, the Astros began the day as the second-favorites in the 2019 World Series odds at +338. When sportsbooks re-open their futures, that number will get shorter.

Here’s where the odds stood before today’s flurry of transactions.

2019 World Series Odds

Team World Series Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +260
New York Yankees +333
Houston Astros +350
Atlanta Braves +850
Minnesota Twins +1400
Chicago Cubs +1600
Cleveland Indians +1600
Philadelphia Phillies +2000
Washington Nationals +2000
Boston Red Sox +2500
Milwaukee Brewers +2500
St. Louis Cardinals +2500

Odds taken on 07/31/19.

The AL East-leading New York Yankees and defending World Series-champion Boston Red Sox surprised by making no major moves prior to the deadline.

Astros’ Monster Rotation

Suppose you’re facing Houston in the postseason. For openers, you stare out to the mound and see Justin Verlander, the 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young Award winner, and the favorite in the 2019 AL Cy Young odds.

In Game 2, you get Gerrit Cole, currently leading the all of baseball with 212 strikeouts.

If you think you’re getting a break in Game 3, well, try on Greinke, another former Cy Young winner, for size.

The Astros didn’t stop there. An intriguing addition to the bottom of their rotation was Toronto RHP Aaron Sanchez. He owns an AL-leading 14 losses this season. In 2016, though, Sanchez went 15-2 for the Blue Jays to lead the AL in winning percentage (.884) and ERA (3.00). He pitched extremely well to start this year, too, posting a 2.32 ERA in April, which dipped to 3.75 by the end of May, and then cratered to 6.31 at the start of July.

Reliever Joe Biagini was also added from the Jays. He’s 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA this season and has six games of postseason experience.

The Yankees were unable to fix their laboring rotation. The list of 15 teams on Greinke’s no-trade clause included them. The ALCS could come down to a showdown between Houston’s arms and the bats of the Bronx Bombers.

Braves, Nationals Also Did Well

Other winners on deadline day were two NL East teams, the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals.

Both teams suffer from brutal bullpens. Washington relievers are tied for third in MLB with 20 blown saves and have an MLB-worst 5.70 bullpen ERA.

Righties Daniel Hudson and Hunter Strickland, and lefty Roenis Elias aren’t household names but they are reliable relievers.

Atlanta got the best closer to move today, adding Detroit’s Shane Greene. The AL All-Star has converted 22 of 25 save opportunities (88 percent). The Braves bullpen has blown 17 of 46 saves (63.04 percent conversion rate).

The division-leading Braves saw their average World Series odds jump from +767 on July 16 to +1200 by July 29.

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