Verlander Massive -250 Favorite to Win AL Cy Young Despite Having 5th-Best ERA

• Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander is the overwhelming -250 chalk to win the American League Cy Young Award
• The right-hander is 10-3 and leads the AL in five statistical categories, including WHIP (0.994) and hits per nine innings (5.1)
• Verlander won the AL Cy Young and MVP Awards in 2011

Justin Verlander is pitching like it’s Justin time. The Houston Astros right-hander is 10-3 and owns an American League-best 0.794 WHIP.

Although Verlander is fifth in the AL with a 2.86 ERA, he’s atop four other statistical categories. They include 119.2 innings pitched, fewest hits per nine innings (5.1), lowest opposition batting average (.167), and on-base percentage (.217).

Currently, across a number of leading sportsbooks, Verlander averages out as a heavy -180 favorite in the 2019 AL Cy Young Award odds. At some sportsbooks he’s as short as -250 chalk.

2019 American League Cy Young Award Odds

*Odds taken on 07/02/19.  

Verlander was runner-up in the AL Cy Young Award voting last season. He won the Cy Young and MVP in 2011, when he was a member of the Detroit Tigers.

Verlander Variables

The Astros ace is 6-2 in his last eight decisions. He’s worked at least seven innings in 10 of his last 11 starts. Verlander is also a stellar 7-2 on the road this season.

Justin Verlander, Filthy 88mph Slider…and Sir Didi with a Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/wsJReqiS4T

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 23, 2019

In a showdown of the two best teams in the AL on June 23 at Yankee Stadium, Verlander beat the New York Yankees 9-4, bringing to a halt Houston’s season-high seven-game losing streak. He held baseball’s fiercest power-hitting club to three runs on four hits and two walks . Verlander fanned nine over his seven innings of work.

Should You Err On The Side Of ERA Caution?

Verlander rates fifth in the AL with a 2.86 earned-run average. The last two AL Cy Young Award winners – Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell in 2018 and Cleveland’s Corey Kluber in 2017 – both posted league-low ERAs.

When Verlander won his lone Cy Young Award, he was also the AL ERA leader. Seven of the last 11 AL Cy Young Award winners were also the ERA leader.

In actuality, the number that could hurt Verlander’s case is home runs allowed. He’s surrendered 23, tied for the most in the league.

Making A Case For Someone Else

Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox leads the AL in wins (11) and winning percentage (.846), something Cy Young voters still seem to value.

Tampa Bay’s Charlie Morton has allowed the fewest homers per nine innings (0.63) and is top-five in ERA. Verlander’s Astros teammate Gerrit Cole is out front in strikeouts (161) and strikeouts per nine innings (13.2).

Mike Minor's last 33 starts since June 16th 2018:

2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
23% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate

.245 BABIP, 84.5% LOB rate, 11% HR/FB

4.26 SIERA

Huh. pic.twitter.com/rv4iWVofnv

— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) June 27, 2019

The closest contender to Verlander in terms of complete resume is Mike Minor of the Texas Rangers. You’ll find him atop all AL pitchers in WAR (5.7), ERA (2.40), and tied with Giolito with two complete games.

Justin Verlander’s pitches overlaid. Still one of the craziest gifs of all time ? pic.twitter.com/qrb4IjhyZH

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) July 1, 2019

When you take into account the entire picture of the pitchers, Verlander is the guy. He rates among the top three in seven statistical categories, is in the top five in 10, and top 10 of 13 departments. But, perhaps most importantly, he’s also proven that he can do it over the course of a full year. The 2019 season is only half over. Guys like Giolito and Minor are pitching far better than their career averages, whereas Verlander is just doing what Verlander has (almost) always done.