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Twins’ World Series Odds Fall to +1800 in the Wake of Pineda Suspension and Buxton Injury

Minnesota Twins players celebrating
The Minnesota Twins' odds to win the 2019 World Series have dropped to +1800 at Bovada. Is there any value betting them to win the Fall Classic? Photo by Tammy Andy Witchger (Wikimedia) CC License.
  • Minnesota is 19-13 in its last 32 games
  • But the Twins are  only 33-30 against teams with a winning record this year
  • Minnesota’s pitchers rank 14th in ERA and WHIP since the All-Star break

The Minnesota Twins hold a comfortable five-game lead in the American League Central, so they’re very likely going to the ALDS. However, when it comes to their chances to win the World Series, Bovada’s oddsmakers have dropped them to +1800 in the wake of some unfortunate personnel losses.

Is there any value betting on the high-scoring Twins or are they just a pretender?

Odds to Win 2019 World Series

American League Contender Odds at Bovada*
Houston Astros +250
New York Yankees +375
Minnesota Twins +1800
Oakland Athletics +2500
Tampa Bay Rays +2500
Cleveland Indians +3500
Boston Red Sox +10000

*Odds taken 09/11/2019.

On average, Minnesota’s 2019 World Series odds are still around +1400, but that’s likely because some books have been slower to adjust to recent news …

Pineda Suspension, Buxton Injury Hampering Twins Odds

One of the main reasons why you see the Twins falling at Bovada is because of two key losses. Starting pitcher Michael Pineda has been suspended for 60 days after getting popped with performance-enhancing drugs while center fielder Byron Buxton is out for the year with a shoulder injury.

The bigger loss here is Pineda as the Twins were already thin on pitching. He was the team’s best starter since the All-Star break, going 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA while holding opponents to a .238 batting average. The Twins had won six of his last eight starts.

This is a team that’s just 14th in ERA and WHIP since the All-Star break. That’s not going to be good enough come playoff time, when pitching has tended to trump prolific offenses in recent history.

Starters Are Struggling

Heading into the playoffs, you’d like to have at least three good starters you can count on. The Twins have to be wondering who they’ll rely upon in October.

Jose Berrios has arguably been the team’s best pitcher this season but he’s faded in the second half. His 3.00 ERA before the All-Star break has shot up to 4.78 since. Opponents are batting .269 against him since the break.

Jake Odorizzi is about the same as he had a 3.15 ERA before and is at 4.30 after.

As for Martin Perez, he is coming off a win, but he had an ERA of 6.75 in August. Kyle Gibson is right there with him at 6.27.

This is a team that’s going to have a lot of problems getting outs in October – especially when they go up against the big bats of the New York Yankees and Houston Astros.

Buxton Loss Will Sting, Too

Although Buxton’s basic numbers don’t look that impressive, he was a key member on this team. Sure, he’s batting just .262 with 10 home runs and 46 RBI. However, he led the team with 14 stolen bases, posted a solid .827 OPS, and had the fifth-best WAR on the team. His defense and speed would have been useful in October.

Remember that the Twins aren’t a team that has a lot of depth to begin with. At the trade deadline, they stood pat and didn’t make any big moves. They could have used a boost at that time but they didn’t get it, and now they’re short two key contributors. That’s going to have a big impact come playoff time.

What’s The Best Bet?

I haven’t been bullish on the Twins all season long and I’m not going to start now. Had they made bigger moves at the trade deadline, I might be more inclined to invest at a long price. As it stands, they not only didn’t add anyone, but they ended up losing two integral parts.

This is a team that’s just 33-30 against winning squads this season. With their starting pitchers struggling down the stretch, I’m not investing in their World Series odds or any of their other futures.

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