Who’s Favored in AL Cy Young Odds After Skubal Injury?

• Two-time reigning AL Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal is scheduled to have elbow surgery
• Skubal is now off the board in the AL Cy Young odds
• Who’s the new AL Cy Young favorite?

On Monday afternoon, the Detroit Tigers announced that ace Tarik Skubal (), the two-time defending AL Cy Young-winner, will have minor elbow surgery. Expected to miss at least a couple months, the Skubal – who had been a sizable favorite in the AL Cy Young odds – was taken off the board at DraftKings.

Skubal’s price at prediction site Kalshi plummeted from 23¢ (equal to +335 odds) to just 2¢ (equal to +4900 odds).

Updated AL Cy Young Odds

Prediction Markets

Post-Skubal Injury Prices

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Cam Schlittler

32%

Max Fried

20%

Dylan Cease

16%

Jose Soriano

15%

Jacob Degrom

8%

Gavin Williams

6%

Bryan Woo

5%

Garrett Crochet

3%

Cole Ragans

3%

Tarik Skubal

2%

Predict

Prices as of 3:51 pm ET, May 4th, at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

With Skubal out of commission (and unlikely to compile enough innings to receive serious consideration), New York righty Cam Schlittler has become the new betting favorite. The 6’6 righty was trading at 18¢ earlier today (+456) and is now the 32¢ chalk (+213).

Following Schlittler is his Yankee teammate Max Fried at 23¢ (+335) and new Blue Jay Dylan Cease at 16¢ (+525).

The following table compares the top-seven favorites at Kalshi by their main pitching metrics, including all regular-season games up to May 3. The table is ordered by ERA.

Statistical Comparison of Top-Six AL Cy Young Favorites

Surging Angel ace Jose Soriano has the best ERA in the majors six weeks into the season. In his fourth season in the bigs, the 27-year-old righty saw his ERA “balloon” from 0.24 to 0.84 after allowing three runs on six hits over 5.0 IP against the White Sox last time out. Soriano’s peripherals project regression. His 3.23 xFIP is ab2.39 runs higher than his actual ERA, the biggest discrepancy among the seven players listed in the table.

Schlittler and Cease have the best FIP and xFIP.

When it comes to average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, Friend is by far the best. He’s the only pitcher in the table who ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in both categories.

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