Bellator 231 Odds & Picks: Mir vs. Nelson 2 & Full Main Card

Frank Mir, Roy Nelson
Frank Mir rematches Roy Nelson in the main event of Bellator 231. Photo by @BellatorMMA (Twitter).
  • Frank Mir and Roy Nelson run back their 2011 fight
  • Bellator has said loser will get cut
  • Phil Davis returns in the co-main event

Bellator is holding a doubleheader on Friday and Saturday this weekend in Connecticut. On Friday at Bellator 231, Frank Mir rematches Roy Nelson in the main event. The two are on losing streaks, where Scott Coker has said the loser will get cut. The co-main event pairs perennial contender Phil Davis against the surging prospect, Karl Albrektsson.

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson Odds

Fighter Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Frank Mir +150 +155
Roy Nelson -185 -180

All odds taken October 23, 2019.

Who Can Snap Their Losing Streak?

Frank Mir (18-13) is on a four-fight losing streak including being 0-2 in Bellator so far. The former UFC heavyweight champion lost to Fedor Emelianenko by TKO in his debut then was TKO’d by Javy Ayala. In his final two UFC fights, he was knocked out by Mark Hunt and lost to Andrei Arlovski by decision. In his last 10 fights he is 2-8. In the prime of his career, he beat the likes of Roy Nelson, Brock Lesnar, Cheick Kongo, and Mirko Cro Cop.

Roy Nelson (23-17) is on a three-fight losing streak and is just 1-3 in Bellator overall. In his Bellator debut, he beat Javy Ayala by decision and then went on to lose to Matt Mitrione, Sergei Kharitonov, and Mirko Cro Cop. In his last 10 fights, he is 3-7. In his career, however, he has beaten some top heavyweights like Cheick Kongo, Cro Cop, and Brendan Schaub among others.

Tale of the Tape


40 Age 43
6’3″ Height 6’0″
79″ Reach 72″
14 Career finishes 19
1 Bellator main events 1

This is about as bad of a heavyweight fight you can get. Both Frank Mir and Roy Nelson should no longer be fighting anymore, as evident by their recent records. Yet, in this fight, I believe Nelson will be able to avenge his 2011 loss and get the win back.

Frank Mir was the better fighter overall in their careers, but right now that is no longer the case. Both are on the downswings of their career but Nelson still has proven his wrestling has held up, while Mir’s power, wrestling, and chin have gone. I suspect Roy Nelson will win this fight by unanimous decision by out-wrestling Mir for three rounds and getting his hand raised in a very bad fight.

Pick: Roy Nelson (-180)

Phil Davis vs. Karl Albrektsson Odds

Fighter Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Phil Davis -380 -400
Karl Albrektsson +290 +330

Can Phil Davis Extend Winning Streak?

Phil Davis (20-5 and one no-contest) is coming off of a TKO win over Liam McGeary in April to get back into the winning ways. Before that, he lost a split-decision to Vadim Nemkov. Since going to Bellator, he is 7-2 with his only two losses coming to Nemkov and Ryan Bader with wins over King Mo, and Linton Vassell among others. In his career, he beat Glover Teixeira, Lyoto Machida, Alexander Gustafsson, and Tim Boetsch.

Karl Albrektsson (8-2) is set for his Bellator debut in a big spotlight against Davis. He was recently fighting in RIZIN where he was a top contender there and beat Vadim Nemkov, while his only two losses are to Valentina Modavsky, and Jiri Prochazka. He is currently on a three-fight winning streak.

Tale of the Tape


36 Age 26
6’2″ Height 6’2″
79″ Reach N/A
10 Career finishes 7
April 2019 Last Fight April 2019

This is a very interesting fight as Bellator clearly sees Albrektsson as a legitimate prospect at light heavyweight and they are throwing him in the deep end right away.

Phil Davis is one of the best light heavyweights in Bellator and is good everywhere with his power, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. Albrektsson has solid ground and pound and should look to try and get this fight to the mat. There is no question this is a close fight, but I still think Davis’ experience and skill will be too much for the Swede as he will edge out a decision.

Pick: Phil Davis (-380)

Bellator 231 Main Card Odds

Here are the odds for the remaining fights on the card.

Ed Ruth vs. Jason Jackson Odds

Fighter Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Ed Ruth -360 -350
Jason Jackson +270 +285

Bec Rawlings vs. Ilara Joanne Odds

Fighter Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Bec Rawlings -275 -240
Ilara Jonne +215 +205

Jake Hager vs. Anthony Garrett Odds

Fighter Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Jake Hager -600 -555
Anthony Garret +400 +425
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