Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 Picks: Berisha vs Pasley Odds and Predictions

• DWCS Week 5 hits the UFC Apex with a light heavyweight main event closing the card
• Arlind Berisha enters as a clear -230 favorite over Quentin Pasley
• See my expert Berisha vs Pasley prediction, picks and odds below

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Dana White’s Contender Series returns to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET. Bettors are eager to uncover the best value on the board for this pivotal night. The action culminates with a high-stakes light heavyweight main event featuring Arlind Berisha vs Quentin Pasley.

Both regional men are fighting for more than just a victory. They are looking to deliver a statement-striking or grappling performance to secure a UFC contract and jump-start their careers at a wide-open 205-pound division.

Let’s dive into my Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 odds, predictions, and best bets.

Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 Odds

Undefeated Slovak middleweight prospect Martin Kozak is the biggest favorite on the card at -500, with Christian Echols sitting as the longest price of the night at +325. Won-Il vs. Gomes is the closest fight on the board at -135 and +105, giving bettors a near coin flip to work with.

Odds as of September 8 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5.

Pasley vs Berisha Prediction

Pasley vs Berisha is the riskiest total on the card because neither fighter has been past the first round. Both have made a living fighting overmatched opponents on the regional scene who fold upon first contact. That is also why the Over 1.5 is priced this high.

Both fighters could be elite strikers, or they could be glorified can-crushers. With just eight total fights between them, it is almost impossible to tell. But despite their shared tendency to find early knockouts, Pasley and Berisha each tend to wait for openings rather than forcing exchanges, which can slow down a fight that looks explosive on paper.

Similar matchups between two inexperienced power punchers have led to unexciting chess matches rather than a barn-burner with each aware and cautious of the danger in front of them. Neither Pasley nor Berisha are the type of fighter to force the issue and get reckless.

With a UFC contract on the line, I expect slightly more caution than their records suggest.

• DWCS Week 5 Pick #1: Pasley vs Berisha Over 1.5 (+185 at Bet365)

Moreno vs Junior Best Bet

Isaac Moreno is athletic, powerful and dangerous when he lets his hands go. If he gets the job done to earn a UFC contract on Tuesday night, he will do so looking like one of the best prospects of the season. The problem is that he can fall victim of inactivity while waiting for counter opportunities, giving opponents time to rack up points.

Reginaldo Junior’s movement should make that issue worse. I expect him to stay active, frustrate Moreno’s entries, and look for grappling chances when Moreno pauses. Junior can be erratic at times, but he has excelled at luring opponents into timely takedowns.

Junior’s biggest liability is his striking defense against pressure. He keeps a disciplined high guard but is extremely vulnerable to body shots, giving Moreno a clear path to success.

Moreno can hurt him if he finds clean openings, but I do not trust him to take enough of them. I like Junior to score with his grappling and bank the better minutes. The UFC could be getting another Fighting Nerd soon.

• DWCS Week 5 Pick #2: Reginaldo Junior ML (+115 at Bet365)

Kozak vs Echols Pick

Martin Kozak’s seven-inch height edge is the key visual in this matchup. He struggles to manage range at times but will still be able to score from the outside, even if he is often too patient for his own good. The size difference will just be too much for an unathletic prospect like Echols to overcome.

Rather than working behind a steady jab, Kozak can fall into waiting on counters. That style helps the Over 1.5 because it limits the number of dangerous exchanges early. As he has faced increased competition, Kozak’s last two fights went over the 1.5-round mark.

The fight could end early if Echols forces Kozak to brawl, but the 24-year-old Pole has never really been the type to spark a firefight. I expect stretches of measuring, feinting, and single-shot offense before the fight opens up. Kozak should cruise, but it might not be the most thrilling performance.

• DWCS Week 5 Pick #3: Kozak vs Echols Over 1.5 (+190 at Bet365)

Won-Il vs Gomes Prediction

Won vs. Gomes should be a striker-on-striker battle, but they approach it differently. Kwon is more offensive-minded, while Gomes is more comfortable prioritizing defense and picking his spots. Likewise, Kwon opens himself up more to taking damange, and Gomes has the power to hurt him.

Kwon has talent, but I have real concerns about his chin and durability. Against a powerful counter striker, those flaws are hard to ignore. If you give him space, Kwon can look good and score points at range, but he is visibly hurt almost every time he eats a clean shot.

Kwon’s range and diversity might get him out to a lead early, but Gomes will steal the momentum the second he lands a clean connection. I like Gomes to stay composed, read the entries and land the cleaner damage. At plus money, his power and defensive discipline are enough for my bet.

• DWCS Week 5 Pick #4: Apollo Gomes ML (+105 at Bet365)

Natividad vs Loud Best Bet

DWCS Week 5 opens with a matchup between a technician and a wild brawler. Natividad has been billed as a future UFC contender for a while now, but he faces a unique challenge against the chaotic Loud, who has never gone past the first round.

Despite Loud’s wild fight style, Natividad’s record has inflated the Over 2.5. The Hawaiian has dominated most of his fights but still has gone to a decision in six of his nine pro outings. Yet, I still think the matchup points toward a finish.

There is truly no understating Loud’s chaos factor. If there was a flyweight Terrance McKinney, it is Colton Loud. The Texan’s pace is dangerous early on, but it also raises a clear gas-tank concern if Natividad survives the initial storm. Loud has never had to manage his energy before and certainly does not get paid by the hour.

I like Natividad’s skill and composure in the fight, and I expect Loud to fade if he does not get an early finish. Once that happens, Natividad should have chances to take over and find the finish over a dwindling opponent.

• DWCS Week 5 Pick #5: Natividad vs Loud Under 2.5 (-135 at Bet365)