Diaz vs. Perry Odds, Early Prediction & Netflix MMA Fight Card Preview

• Diaz vs. Perry serves as the co-main event of MVP MMA 1 on Saturday, May 16th from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles
• Perry is the heavy favorite at BetMGM with Diaz coming in as the underdog
• Check out the opening Diaz vs. Perry odds, my early prediction and full betting preview below

The most violent matchup on Saturday’s Netflix card doesn’t involve a former champion. Nate Diaz and Mike Perry meet in the co-main event of MVP MMA 1 at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, supporting Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano at the top of the bill.

Diaz hasn’t been in an MMA cage since submitting Tony Ferguson at UFC 279 in September 2022. Perry’s MMA layoff stretches back even further to April 2021. The difference is Perry has stayed sharp in BKFC, going 7-0 with knockouts of Luke Rockhold, Eddie Alvarez, and Jeremy Stephens. That activity gap is showing up in the betting market.

Let’s break down the opening Diaz vs. Perry odds and get into my early prediction.

Jump To: Odds | Early Prediction | Netflix MMA Fight Card | Betting Value

Diaz vs. Perry Odds

Perry sits as a -200 chalk at BetMGM, with about 66.7% implied probability. Diaz comes in at +165, or roughly 37.7%. The most telling number is the fight to go the distance at +100 even money. Vegas isn’t sold on a finish either way.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Odds as of May 12th at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for Saturday’s fights or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Diaz vs. Perry Prediction

My early Diaz vs. Perry prediction starts with Perry. He’s seven years younger, has been in real combat sports action as recently as October, and brings a 79% knockout rate from his MMA days. Diaz is 41 and his last competitive MMA performance was a grind against Tony Ferguson nearly four years ago.

The problem with Perry at -200 is that the price already prices in the youth and activity edge. You’re laying two-to-one juice on a guy whose only knockout losses came against the same kind of veterans Diaz beats. Perry got TKO’d by Geoff Neal, Tim Means, and others when he stood in the pocket against measured strikers.

Diaz brings the bigger frame. He’s two inches taller, has a five-inch reach advantage, and has never been knocked out in MMA across 34 pro fights. Perry can crack, but landing flush on a 6’0″ volume boxer who eats shots for a living is a tougher ask than it sounds.

Tale of the Tape

The grappling gap is what jumps off the page. Diaz has 12 career submissions. Perry has zero. He’s also never recorded a submission win in his entire career, meaning he’s never spent serious time learning to attack the neck from top position.

That said, Perry has never been submitted in MMA either, so Diaz can’t just pull guard and look for the choke. The Stockton native is going to need Perry to overcommit on a punch and bury his head, which is exactly the kind of mistake Perry tends to make.

The younger, fresher fighter pushing pace for 25 minutes against a 41-year-old coming off a four-year layoff is a scorecards bet waiting to happen. This makes Perry by decision at +175 my best bet for the Netflix fight.

• Early Diaz vs. Perry Pick: Mike Perry by Decision (+175 at BetMGM)

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Netflix MMA Fight Card and Date

MVP MMA 1 hits Netflix on Saturday, May 16th from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles. Prelims kick off at 6 pm ET on Netflix Tudum and the MVP YouTube channel. The main card lands on Netflix at 9 pm ET, with Diaz vs. Perry expected around 11 pm ET.

Below is the full Netflix MMA fight card with current BetMGM odds, headlined by Rousey vs. Carano and stacked from top to bottom.

Diaz vs. Perry Betting Value

If Perry by decision feels too chalky for your taste, the fight to go the distance at even money is a softer way to play it. It cashes on a Diaz decision too, which is why it’s priced lower. Diaz has been knocked out twice in 34 pro MMA fights and has never been finished by strikes.

Diaz backers can dream on his submission prop at +425. Perry walks straight forward, leads with his face, and has zero defensive submission experience to rely on. Two decades of Diaz finishing fights with the guillotine has to count for something.

More on the rest of MVP MMA 1 coming later this week. In the meantime, Perry by decision at +175 is my best bet on the co-main event, plus I’ve also analyzed the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano odds.