Early UFC 330 Odds, Predictions & Picks: Makhachev vs Garry

• UFC 330 goes down Saturday, August 15th from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia
• Islam Makhachev defends his welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry in the main event
• Check out the early UFC 330 odds, predictions and best value below

The UFC is back in Philadelphia for the first time since 2019, and UFC 330 brings two title fights to the City of Brotherly Love. Islam Makhachev headlines against Ian Machado Garry, with Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson serving as the co-main.

This is Makhachev’s first welterweight title defense after he moved up and took the belt from Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322. He’s the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport, and a win here would give him 17 straight to break the UFC record he currently shares with Anderson Silva.

Garry earned this shot with back-to-back wins over Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad. He’s the No. 1 contender at welterweight and gets his first crack at gold. Makhachev and Garry are projected for a 9 pm ET, 6 pm PT ringwalk on Saturday, with the co-main slotting in around 8 pm ET.

Early UFC 330 Odds

Makhachev opened around -278 on DraftKings and has already been bet up to -310. That puts his implied probability at roughly 75.6%, with Garry sitting at +250 (about 28.6%). The line keeps creeping toward the champ, which tells you where the money is going early.

The co-main is much tighter. Dern opened at -120 and has firmed up to -170, an implied probability near 63%. Robertson at +142 sits around 41%, so this one is closer to a coin flip than the main event.

Odds as of June 17th at DraftKings. Browse the best UFC betting apps or grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC 330.

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Early Makhachev vs Garry Prediction

The price feels fair to me. Makhachev is the best grappler in the sport, and Garry’s realistic path to winning is points. It’s hard to picture Islam dropping a decision over three rounds, and that’s basically the only door open for the challenger.

That said, it’s been a rough year for title-fight favorites. We’ve watched chalk go down more than once recently, and a couple months ago I think Makhachev opens closer to -400 in this spot. The market is giving Garry a little more respect than usual, and I get why.

Tale of the Tape

Garry is a big, long welterweight with a four-inch reach edge, and he moves really well. His distance management is the best part of his game, and those oblique kicks can disrupt Makhachev’s wrestling entries. If he keeps it standing and stacks up rounds like he did against Belal, there’s a version of this where he steals a decision.

My hesitation with Garry is that he hasn’t really hurt anybody. He hasn’t finished a fight inside the distance in three years across his last six bouts, so even his best path here is probably a tight 48-47 type of night. Asking him to outpoint Makhachev for 25 minutes is a tall order.

I’m not laying -310 on anyone in this climate. Garry at +250 is a live flier given how favorites have been falling lately, but I want to be clear that’s a flier and not a confident play. If you believe in the youth, the reach and the movement, a small Garry ticket is worth a look.

• Makhachev vs Garry Early Pick (flier): Ian Machado Garry (+250 at DraftKings)

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Early Dern vs Robertson Prediction

This is the better betting fight on the card right now. Dern won the vacant strawweight title at UFC 321 by beating Virna Jandiroba for the second time, and she’s on a three-fight winning streak with eight career submissions.

Robertson is no easy out, though. She’s riding a five-fight winning streak of her own, last beating Amanda Lemos by decision in March, and she owns the most submission wins in UFC women’s history. She finishes about 71% of her victories, so she brings real pace and a deep grappling toolkit.

Two BJJ aces over five rounds is hard to call, and that’s exactly why I like the plus money. Dern hasn’t always looked sharp on her feet, and Robertson’s aggression travels well into a championship fight. The underdog at +142 is the value here.

• Dern vs Robertson Early Pick: Gillian Robertson (+142 at DraftKings)

Rest of the UFC 330 Card

No early odds are posted yet for the undercard, but a few fights are worth circling. Erin Blanchfield (14-2) takes on Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4) in a women’s flyweight bout. Blanchfield is the No. 4-ranked fighter in the division and just choked out Tracy Cortez in the second round at UFC 322, so I expect her to open as a comfortable favorite once the line drops.

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics should be fun while it lasts. Barboza is 39 and coming off a first-round knockout loss to Jalin Turner, while Ribovics is the younger, pressure-forward fighter. Vicente Luque also returns against Tresean Gore, who is 7-4 and on a two-fight skid.

UFC 330 Early Value

Robertson at +142 is my favorite early bet on the card. She’s a real threat on the mat and a live dog in a title fight that’s close to a pick’em, and the plus money on a fighter this dangerous is the best value available right now.

If you want a swing at the main event, Garry at +250 is the play given how many favorites have gone down lately. Just keep it small. Makhachev is a -310 favorite for a reason, and I’m not touching the chalk at that number. Keep an eye on this card as more odds and prelim fights get added in the coming weeks.