Expert Johnny Manziel vs Bob Menery Prediction for UFC Apex Fight (May 23)

By Jaren Kawada in Mixed Martial Arts News

Published: May 23, 2026 at 8:05 pm EDT

Nov 30, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Former Texas A&M and Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel looks on prior to the game against the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns defeated the Aggies 17-7 at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Former NFL quarterback Johnny Manziel will face influencer Bob Menery in an exhibition boxing fight
The fight will be promoted by Adin Ross’ Brand Risk Promotions at UFC Apex
Read below for Manziel vs Menery prediction and the full fight card

Ex-NFL quarterback Johnny Manziel headlines the most confusing, albeit interesting, combat sports event of the week against social media influencer Bob Menery at the UFC’s Meta Apex on Saturday night. The celebrities face off in the main event of another Adin Ross-promoted Brand Risk Promotions fight card.

Check below for the Manziel vs. Menery prediction, latest odds, full fight card and where to watch.

Manziel vs. Menery Prediction

Pick: Bob Menery (+252 at Kalshi)

One of the oldest cliches in combat sports is that anything can happen in a fistfight. That statement could not be truer than when Johnny Manziel and Bob Menery throw down on a UFC Octagon in what can only be described as one of the most unique MMA fights of all time.

Neither man has any sort of formal combat sports experience, yet Manziel is at least a known athlete. The 33-year-old became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy in 2012, two years before the Cleveland Browns took a dive on him in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Manziel also has at least a smidge of combat sports training and claimed to have begun boxing training sometime in early 2026.

Johnny Manziel faces off with Bob Menery before their MMA debuts tomorrow night in a 3 round matchup on Brand Risk Promotions at the UFC Apex pic.twitter.com/aZSGuMkUnS
— FULL SEND MMA (@full_send_mma) May 23, 2026

Manziel’s athletic background and Menery’s lack thereof have unsurprisingly made the former the betting favorite. Manziel is also five years younger than the 38-year-old Menery, who is in great physical shape for an Average Joe but has never been any sort of high-level athlete.

Yet, even with all the intangibles favoring Manziel, pricing either guy as a 4-1 favorite is a bridge too far. As with any fight between two inexperienced foes, the matchup will quickly turn into a sloppy backyard brawl, especially in an MMA fight, where either could end up beneath the other and fail to get up.

Unless Manziel has been secretly training in Dagestan, there is no way to justify him as a -400 favorite. Any bets on this fight have to be tentatively placed on the underdog.

Manziel vs. Menery Odds

Prediction Markets

Manziel vs Menery

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Johnny Manziel

79%

Bob Menery

21%

Predict

Manziel is closing as a hefty -376 betting favorite, giving him a 79 percent implied win probability. The line on Menery comes back at +376, loosely translating to a 21 percent implied win probability.

No sportsbook currently offers any prop lines for the fight beyond a straight moneyline bet. Ross’ Brand Risk Promotions is only in its third year, and none of his fighters ever provides enough information to generate deeper lines.

Odds as of May 22, 2026, on Kalshi. Grab a Kalshi referral code or browse other top prediction markets.

Manziel vs. Menery Tale of the Tape

Although neither Manziel nor Menery has enough information to truly fill a tale of the tape, the numbers that do exist favor Manziel. ‘Johnny Football’ will be significantly taller than Menery and presumably will also have a longer reach.

Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery

Johnny Manziel		Bob Menery
NA	Record	NA
6’0″	Height	5’7″
NA	Reach	NA
33	Age	38
NA	Stance	NA

Without any meaningful information to read into, predicting the fight is anybody’s guess.

Manziel vs. Menery Fight Card

Brand Risk 014 is an 11-fight event beginning with five boxing bouts followed by six MMA fights. Former NBA stars Michael Beasley and Lance Stephenson face off in the co-main event, while Gabe Silva, the son of UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva, is one of the 10 boxers competing early on the card.

Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery, middleweight
Michael Beasley vs. Lance Stephenson, heavyweight
Ray J vs. Supa Hot Fire, middleweight
No Neck Jay vs. Shane Chance, heavyweight
Jeremy Smith vs. Ryder Warbrick, heavyweight
Dom the Troll vs. Tommy Tough Knuckles, heavyweight
(Boxing) Antonio Williams vs. Haskell Rhodes Jr., welterweight
(Boxing) Gabe Silva vs. Malcolm Peck, middleweight
(Boxing) AP the Fighter vs. Ethan Stern, heavyweight
(Boxing) Andrew Garcia vs. Deshawn Prather, welterweight
(Boxing) Britton Norwood vs. Alvin Varmall Jr., cruiserweight

Manziel vs. Menery Start Time & Where to Watch

Manziel vs. Menery begins at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire fight card will be available to watch on Adin Ross’ Kick stream.

Despite being at UFC headquarters, the UFC will not broadcast the event on UFC Fight Pass or its social media channels.