UFC 269 Betting Preview – Oliveira vs Poirier Prop Bets and Best Method of Victory Pick
- The final pay-per-view of 2021 goes down on December 11th, 2021, and we’re breaking down the best UFC prop bets
- Dustin Poirier is the betting favorite, but is there a better way to bet him?
- Let’s take a look at a full UFC 269 betting preview, along with our best prop bets
The UFC is back at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, December 11th, 2021. The main event sees Charles Oliveira looking to defend his lightweight title for the first time against Dustin Poirier. The co-main event sees Amanda Nunes dropping back down to 135lbs to defend her bantamweight strap against Julianna Pena. UFC 269 props are available at BetMGM, Barstool Sportsbook, DraftKings, and more, with a few lines offering great value.
We’ve already broken down out UFC 269 moneyline best bets and found some value on some fighters. That being said, let’s dive deeper into a UFC 269 betting preview where we look at our best UFC prop bets for the card.
UFC 269 Props – Total Rounds Odds
| Matchup | Total Rounds | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira vs Poirier | 1.5 | -160 | +130 |
| Nunes vs Pena | 1.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Neal vs Ponzinibbio | 1.5 | -175 | +140 |
| Kara-France vs Garbrandt | 2.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Paiva vs O’Malley | 2.5 | +105 | -130 |
Odds as of December 9th at BetMGM
Nunes vs Pena Under 1.5 Rounds at BetMGM
Amanda Nunes is the greatest female mixed martial artist of all time and there is a massive gap in skill between her and Julianna Pena.
In the lead-up to this fight, Pena has trash-talked Nunes quite a bit, which Nunes was not a fan of. At media day on Wednesday, she said she plans to make Pena pay for her words. Not only is Nunes so well-rounded, but Pena is just 2-2 in her last four and got submitted in both of her losses. The Brazilian should come out aggressive and hurt Pena early and either finish her off via strikes or will submit her in the first round.
In her last five fights, Nunes has gone under 1.5 in three of them and the two she didn’t were against Felicia Spencer, and Germaine de Randamie, who are as durable as they come.
Pick: Nunes-Pena Under 1.5 Rounds (-110) at BetMGM
UFC 269 Props – To Go The Distance Odds
| Matchup | Yes Odds | No Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Oliveira vs Poirier | +250 | -360 |
| Nunes vs Pena | +300 | -455 |
| Neal vs Ponzinibbio | +125 | -167 |
| Kara-France vs Gabrandt | +120 | -162 |
| Paiva vs O’Malley | +115 | -152 |
Odds as of December 9th at Barstool Sportsbook
Best UFC 269 Prop Bet Value at Barstool Sportsbook
All the UFC 269 main card fights are favored to end inside the distance, which should be good for action, but the best UFC 269 prop bet for me is Sean O’Malley vs Raulian Paiva not go the distance.
O’Malley is known as a finisher, and in his last five fights, none of them have gone the distance, including the time he lost. Paiva, meanwhile, has gone the distance in two of his last four fights, but those times were not against known finishers, and one of them was at flyweight.
Depending on the outcome at #UFC269, Sean O'Malley says he has options 🤔
(via @bokamotoESPN) pic.twitter.com/WwirzWhV65
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) December 8, 2021
In this fight, Paiva gets hit too much as he absorbs 4.9 significant strikes per minute, while O’Malley lands 8.25 significant strikes per minute. O’Malley is also great at using his range and landing the perfect strikes. I don’t think Paiva will be able to survive the clean shots of “Suga” as O’Malley will get the KO win. But, there is also a chance Paiva can connect on O’Malley or land the leg kicks, which we saw end an O’Malley fight already. Bet the fight not to go the distance at -152 at UFC 269.
I also don’t mind the Neal vs Ponzinibbio fight to go the distance at +125, which could be worth a small bet.
Pick: Paiva vs O’Malley Not to Go the Distance (-152) at Barstool Sportsbook
UFC 269 Props – Method of Victory Odds
| Result | KO / TKO/DQ Odds | Submission Odds | Decision Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira beats Poirier | +800 | +275 | +650 |
| Poirier beats Oliveira | +110 | +1200 | +500 |
| Nunes beats Pena | +165 | +400 | +400 |
| Pena beats Nunes | +2500 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Neal beats Ponzinibbio | +175 | +1800 | +550 |
| Ponzinibbio beats Neal | +215 | +1600 | +275 |
| Kara-France beats Garbrandt | +300 | +1400 | +350 |
| Garbrandt beats Kara-France | +165 | +1400 | +350 |
| Paiva beats O’Malley | +800 | +1000 | +550 |
| O’Malley beats Paiva | +110 | +1100 | +215 |
Odds as of December 9th at DraftKings Sportsbook
Poirier Wins by KO/TKO At UFC 269
In my UFC 269 betting preview, you already saw I’m picking Dustin Poirier to beat Charles Oliveira to become the new champ, but I’m also expecting him to do it by knockout.
In Oliveira’s last fight, he got tagged a lot by Michael Chandler and nearly got finished in the first. However, he came back strong as Chandler was too aggressive, and Oliveira got the finish. Poirier, however, does not rush anything as he is a very patient fighter. I think his boxing will be too much for Oliveira, as I still have questions about the Brazilian’s chin.
In the end, I think this fight goes into the third or fourth round where the damage will eventually be too much, and Poirier finds the knockout shot. Bet Poirier to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
One other UFC 269 prop bet I like is Kai Kara-France to win by KO/TKO at +300. Garbrandt is dropping down a weight class, and his chin is a major knock as the first clean shot has been knocking him out. Him dropping down an extra 10lbs against a hard-hitter is a recipe for disaster.
Pick: Dustin Poirier wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
