UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs Oleynik Odds and Predictions

Alistair Overeem
Alistair Overeem enters UFC Fight Night 149 as the overwhelming favorite. Photo by @MMAFighting (Twitter)
  • The UFC heads to St. Petersburg, Russia on Saturday, April 20th
  • Who’s winning ways will come to an end?
  • See the odds for the main card and all additional fights at UFC Fight Night 149

The UFC returns to Russia for an intriguing heavyweight matchup in the main event. Originally, this fight was supposed to be Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov, but Volkov is out of the fight, leaving Russian Alexey Oleynik to step up and take this fight. Meanwhile, in the co-main event, Islam Makhachev returns to take on Arman Tsarukyan. The main card airs live on ESPN+ at 1:00 p.m. ET, with the prelims live at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Alistair Overeem vs Alexey Oleynik Odds

Fighter Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Alistair Overeem -240 -240
Alexey Oleynik +190 +205

*All odds taken 04/14/19

Fight Record and Recent History

Overeem (44-17 and one no-contest) is coming off of a TKO win over Sergey Pavlovich back in November of 2018. The win snapped his two-fight losing streak where Francis Ngannou had the uppercut knockout of Overeem and then Blaydes TKO’d him in his next fight.

However, Overeem has shown he still had what it takes to win fights in the later years of his career. In the past three years, he holds notable wins over the likes of Fabricio Werdum, Mark Hunt, and Andrei Arlovski. While in his career he has wins over Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson, and Brock Lesnar, among countless others.

Oleynik (57-11-1) meanwhile, is riding a two-fight winning streak. In his last fight, he headlined the last card in Russia where he submitted Mark Hunt. Before that, he beat Junior Albini by submission to get back into the win column after he lost by TKO to Curtis Blaydes. Throughout his long career, Oleynik holds notable wins over the likes of Travis Browne, Mirko Cro Cop, and Jared Rosholt, among others.

Overeem vs Oleynik Tale of the Tape

Overeem
VS
Oleynik

38 Age 41
6’4″ Height 6’2″
80″ Reach 80″
6 UFC finishes 6
November 2018 Last fight September 2018

The line is right about where it is supposed to be. Overeem has more ways to win in this fight as he still holds knockout power and can grind out a decision win. And, the way he has lost of late is by knockout, but Oleynik’s knockout power is not a worry. Rather, Overeem needs to worry about Oleynik’s ground game as if he gets anyone to the ground he gets ahold of a neck or a limp and will submit them. But, Overeem hasn’t been submitted since 2006 by a kimura. Meaning, the odds are against Oleynik to win this fight, but it is possible.

Overeem has more ways to win in this fight as he still holds knockout power and can grind out a decision win.

In the end, I think Overeem will be able to keep the fight standing and get a TKO win in the middle of the fight to extend his winning streak.

Pick: Overeem (-240)

Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan Odds

Fighter Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Islam Makhachev -550 -425
Arman Tsarukyan +375 +355

Fight Record and Recent History

Makhachev (16-1) is riding a four-fight winning streak while beating notable names during this recent run. He beat Chris Wade and then Nik Lentz by decision before knocking out Gleison Tibau and then submitting Kajan Johnson. Makhachev should have been fighting someone higher ranked and simply a better fighter. There was talks of a Kevin Lee fight, but that did not come to fruition.

Tsarukyan (13-1) is set to make his UFC debut and it does not get much harder than Makhachev, who many believe could be a future champion. Tsarukyan is riding a 12-fight winning streak and does hold amateur wins over Shamil Magomedov and Magomedov Magomedov, which are good wins to have.

Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Tale of the Tape

Makhachev
VS
Tsarukyan

27 Age 22
5’10” Height 5’8″
70″ Reach N/A
American Kickboxing Academy Camp Tiger Muay Thai and others
July 2018 Last fight August 2018

There is a reason why the odds are so in favor of Makhachev and that is because the question is not if he will win, but how. He has shown he can submit fighters as well as knock them out. In the end, a finish is coming and Makhachev will make easy work of the UFC newcomer.

Pick: Makhachev (-425)

The Rest of UFC Fight Night 149 Main Card

Fighter  Odds
Sergey Pavlovich -315
Marcelo Golm +245
Fighter  Odds
Ivan Shtyrkov -200
Devin Clark +160
Fighter  Odds
Roxanne Modafferi +27-
Antonina Shevchenko -360
Fighter Odds
Krzysztof Jotko -200
Alen Amedovski +160
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