NBA Betting – Mavs Ride Surprise D into Memphis Matchup

Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks (-6, 192.5 o/u)

If I told you a month ago that the Dallas Mavericks (40-38, 22-17 Home) would ride a stifling defense to a playoff spot in the high-scoring Western Conference, you ought to have looked at me cockeyed. But that’s exactly what’s happened over the past couple weeks as the Mavs have won five straight, holding opponents to 89 points or fewer. Tonight Dallas, which holds a narrow one-game lead over the Jazz for the seventh seed, will look to make it six straight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies (42-36, 16-22 Away) at the American Airlines Center (8:30 PM Eastern).

The Mavs consolidated their playoff hopes last night with a huge win over Houston (88-86). They now lead the ninth-place Rockets by 2.5 games. With just four games left on the schedule, it would take a complete meltdown for Dallas to miss out on the postseason, though a tough slate awaits in the final trio of games, facing the Clippers and Jazz on the road and hosting the Spurs in the last game of the regular season.

The recent defensive performances have been a huge turnaround for the team, which is still averaging 103 points against per game for the year. Head coach Rick Carlisle has emphasized a slower pace, and it’s paying immediate dividends. The play of backup point guard JJ Barea has also been key in the Mavs late-season surge. Barea took over the starting duties when Deron Williams went down with a hernia in late March and the Puerto Rican has been nothing short of brilliant ever since. He’s only averaging 11 PPG on the year, but has scored at least 18 in five straight, including a team-high 27 last night.

The Grizzlies are in a similar boat, injury-wise, losing their starting PG Mike Conley for the year to an Achilles injury. But, unlike the Mavs, they don’t have a solid reserve to fall back on as Mario Chalmers was also lost for the year with an Achilles tear. Adding to the injury woes, center Marc Gasol remains on the sidelines after foot surgery and is unlikely to make it back this season.

Memphis still holds the five seed in the West but are absolutely reeling, losing ten of their last 13 and six of seven. They had lost six straight until a 108-92 win over the Bulls on Tuesday. Zach Randolph had a monster game with 27 points and ten rebounds, while the aging Vince Carter added 17 off the bench.

Between Randolph, Tony Allen, and Jeff Green, Memphis can still field a decent lineup, but are lacking a top quality point man to run the offense. Don’t bank on them to make any noise in the postseason; a first-round matchup with either the Clippers or Thunder should lead to an early exit.

Same goes for tonight. Dallas has already taken two of three from Memphis this year, and that was before most of the injury concerns. The Mavs are also 16-5 SU against the Grizzlies at home in recent history (plus 10-5 against the spread in the last 15 head-to-head).

Pick: Dallas (-6). 

(Photo Credit: Danny Bollinger (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/])