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76ers vs Heat Game 5 Odds and Picks

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

May 9, 2022 · 7:37 PM PDT

James Harden and Joel Embiid pumped reaction
May 8, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) reacts with center Joel Embiid (21) after a score against the Miami Heat during the second quarter in game four of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semifinal
  • Philadelphia has evened the series after falling into an 0-2 hole
  • See the 76ers vs Heat Game 5 odds, preview and prediction below

The Philadelphia 76ers are hoping their rediscovered mojo travels with them to Miami.

The Heat are hoping a return home will snap them out of their two-game funk.

It makes for high drama in this Eastern Conference semifinal, as Game 5 will break this 2-2 best-of-7 series deadlock, and push one team to the brink of elimination.

Despite watching their 2-0 lead evaporate in Philly, the Heat are still 3-point favorites Tuesday night at FTX Arena in a game that can be seen live on TNT.

76ers vs Heat Game 5 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Philadelphia 76ers +140 +3.0 (-110) Ov 209.5 (-110)
Miami Heat -160 -3.0 (-110) Un 209.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 9th at Caesars Sportsbook

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Injury Report

Miami’s injury report is as long as a CVS receipt, but it’s been like that all playoffs. The only true concern is Kyle Lowry, who tweaked his hamstring in Game 4. Even visibly hobbled in the second quarter, Lowry gutted it out but was clearly compromised.

The Heat pulled the plug on Lowry’s night with 9:42 left in the fourth quarter. His status is still unknown for Tuesday, but he said he was going to do his best to be available for Game 5.

76ers Betting Analysis

What a difference an MVP-level talent makes.

After missing the first two games of the series dealing with an orbital bone fracture and concussion, Joel Embiid returned in Games 3 and 4, helping the 76ers win both.

He had 24 points and 11 rebounds in the 116-108 Game 4 win. This after debuting in Game 3 with 18 points and 11 boards. Embiid hasn’t been his usual dominant self — he has only 25 field goal attempts through two games — but he’s put a ton of pressure on the Heat defense.

It’s resulted in a parade to the free-throw line, where he’s had 23 attempts, punishing the Heat for a switch-heavy and zone scheme which leaves him with mismatches on almost every possession.

Embiid’s costar finally made his impact in the series too. James Harden has been much maligned for his inability to conjure up the old James Harden, the scoring machine that could dominate games on his own.

If he can come close to his Game 4 level of excellence, the Sixers will be in good shape.

Harden posted a team-high 31 points to go along with nine dimes and seven boards. He drilled 6-for-10 from beyond the arc, and finally looked like the one-on-one threat that cooked whoever defended him. It was Harden’s first 30-point effort in these playoffs.

Heat Betting Analysis

It’s turning into Jimmy Butler vs the world, and the results have not been great.

Butler was a man on fire in Game 4, putting up a game-high 40 points on 13-for-20 shooting, adding six assists and three boards in a losing effort. This after scoring 33 in a Game 3 loss.

Butler’s scoring single-handedly kept the Heat within range but their shooting abandoned them. Miami shot a brutal 7-for-35 from three-point range, in Game 4, a 20% clip.

The top three-point shooting team in the NBA this year, Miami shot just 14-for-65 in two losses in Philly, a 21.5% mark. The 76ers outscored them by 54 points from beyond the arc across the last two games.

Miami hasn’t been able to find consistent scoring options to support Butler . NBA Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro shot just 4-of-12 for 11 points in Game 4, while Bam Adebayo had 21 points and seven boards, though he had his hands full trying to defend Embiid.

Victor Oladipo was the only other Heat player to finish in double-digit scoring, with 15.

After Miami’s defense bottled the Embiid-less 76ers to 97.5 points a game in their two wins to open the series, the 76ers’ output is up to 107.5 in the last two. That’s still not a bad total, but Miami’s offense has dried up, putting up only 93.5 points per game in the last two contests.

76ers vs Heat Pick

Miami was the East’s top home team this year, but Philadelphia had the best road mark in the conference.

The presence of Embiid boosted the Sixers’ shooting splits, improving to 51.2% in Games 3 and 4, from 44% in Games 1 and 2. It was an even more dramatic 48.5% mark from three-point range in the last two games, compared to 22% in those South Beach losses.

Do those numbers travel? Perhaps, but it’s hard to bank on another Harden throwback performance. Home court should also warm those icy Heat shooting performances.

These teams just cruised past the total last time out, but the line suggests an expected slugfest. I’d bank on Miami’s improved offense matching the 76ers’ offensive output, enough to take the over.

The pick: OVER 209.5 points  (-110)

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