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Anthony Davis & James Harden See MVP Odds Improve to +400 With Curry Out of the Race

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 9:28 AM PDT

James Harden driving to the hoop
James Harden is not expected to match his streak of 32 consecutive 30-point games from 2018-19. Photo by Keith Allison (Wikipedia).
  • Anthony Davis and James Harden see price shorten after Steph Curry’s injury
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the favorite
  • Karl-Anthony Towns a name to watch?

Anthony Davis and James Harden were already two of the frontrunners for MVP. After Steph Curry broke his hand in the Warriors’ loss to the Phoenix Suns, Davis and Harden have seen their MVP odds shorten to +400.

Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo still leads the way at +300.

That trio are a distance ahead of the field in the latest NBA MVP odds. LeBron James is their closest competitor currently, but the three-time NBA champion is out at +900. Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard is priced at +1100, just ahead of Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid.

2019-20 NBA MVP Odds

Player Odds
Giannis Antetokounmpo +300
Anthony Davis +400
James Harden +400
LeBron James +900
Kawhi Leonard +1100
Nikola Jokic +1200
Joel Embiid +1400
Kyrie Irving +1600
Damian Lillard +2500
Luka Doncic +2500
Pascal Siakam +2500
Ben Simmons +3300
Donovan Mitchell +3300
Karl-Anthony Towns +4000
Russell Westbrook +4000

Odds taken Nov. 1.

Davis on Fire

Davis has got off to a flying start as a Laker. The six-time All-Star is averaging over 28 points-per-game at this early stage of the season, including an historic 40-20 night in 30 minutes of action against the Memphis Grizzlies.

His three blocks per game lead the NBA and he’s been excellent at the free throw line, hitting 88.9% of his attempts and missing just once from the stripe in his last three games.

James talked a lot in the offseason about playing through Davis. So far, LeBron has backed up his words. James fed Davis in the post in the season opener against the Clippers, and while the offense has been more varied since then, the focus on the former New Orleans Pelican has continued. Davis’ 34% usage rate is the sixth-highest in the league and the highest of any big man.

Usage-Rate King

The usage rate king in recent seasons, Harden is one of the players above Davis at 38.2%. His fit alongside Russell Westbrook has looked better than many expected in the first four games of the campaign with both players posting impressive box scores.

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Harden hit 10 of his first 42 field goal attempts this season, but his ability to get to the line saw him contribute significantly still, scoring 19 on opening night and 29 against the Pelicans. What he’s followed that with, however, has been vintage Harden. The 2017-18 MVP scored 40 against the Thunder and racked up 59 in an epic duel with Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards.

Davis and Harden are in similar circumstances, sharing the team with a fellow superstar. That could yet harm their respective MVP cases. Antetokounmpo has no such worry. The Greek Freak is the best bet of the three.

Towns’ Candidacy

Beyond the leading triumvirate, load management is a major issue for a couple of contenders. Leonard and Joel Embiid will likely sit out enough games to take them out of the conversation. Nikola Jokic has started slowly after a busy offseason, making him a difficult guy to back.

Pascal Siakam and Luka Doncic are set to have big seasons, but they are probably a year or two away from true MVP contention.

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Karl-Anthony Towns is a name to look out for. If the Minnesota Timberwolves can build on their 3-1 start and become a serious playoff contender, Towns’ argument to win MVP will be similar to when Westbrook lifted the trophy in 2016-17 – he’ll have overachieved with an average roster.

The former first overall pick has started brilliantly, scoring over 27 per game along with 11 boards and a career-high four assists. Improved defensive effort has been notable and resulted in 2.5 steals per game (he’s never averaged more than 0.9 for a season).

He’s shooting nearly double as many threes as 2018-19 – Ryan Saunders’ offense will bring the best out of his immense talents.

For Towns to be a real MVP contender requires the Timberwolves to, at the very least, make the playoffs. With the numbers he’ll put up if they achieve that goal, the +4000 is a good price. Towns’ start to the campaign makes him someone to consider in this market.

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