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Bucks Now the Odds-On Favorites to Win Central Division

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 10:46 PM PDT

Giannis Antetokounmpo
At 8-2 and first place in the NBA's Central Divsion, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are clear favorites to win the division title. By Keith Allison (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • The Bucks have raced out to an early lead in the Central Division
  • Bookies have taken notice and adjusted their odds to take the division title
  • Is the division Milwaukee’s to lose, or do the Indiana Pacers offer a great value-betting alternative?

The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers were co-favorites to win the NBA’s Central division before the season started. Now less than a month into the season bookies have taken a position on the Bucks by shortening their odds to -185.

Odds to Win the Central Division in 2018-19

Team Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -185
Indiana Pacers +260
Detroit Pistons +500
Chicago Bulls +10000
Cleveland Cavaliers +20000

The Pacers have currently played one more game than the 8-2 Bucks, yet sit a game behind Milwaukee in the division standings at 7-4. That puts them as second-favorites.

Bucks Quick Out of the Gates

The Bucks have not only emerged as clear favorites to win the Central, but have also entered into the NBA Championship conversation. With eight wins they have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference behind only Toronto. But only two other teams have more than eight—that being the Nuggets and Warriors in the West.

Their average odds to win the NBA title had them among the top ten favorites earlier this week.

Saying Milwaukee has started quick extends past just their impressive record. They have literally been putting pressure on their opponents early as the best second quarter team in the league.

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They have been so good in the second quarter that they have the highest plus/minus in the second as anyone does in any quarter this year.

Giannis Antetokounmpo often steals the headlines with 25.8 PPG good for tenth overall in the league. But their offense is humming on all levels and is getting contributions up and down the roster.

Khris Middleton averages just shy of 20 PPG (19.5) and each of Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez average doube-digits.

The Bucks have cooled off a bit with losses in two of their past three, but rank near the top of most offensive and defensive categories.

Bucks vs Pacers Rankings

Bucks
VS
Pacers
120.0 (2nd) Off PPG 106.6 (24th)
47.6 (7th) Off FG% 48.9 (5th)
38.0 (4th) Off 3 PT% 37.9 (5th)
107.3 (5th) Def PPG 102.3 (3rd)
41.6 (1st) Def FG% 43.7 (6th)
33.1 (9th) Def 3 PT% 36.3 (19th)

Can the Pacers Challenge in the Central?

By all accounts Indiana has had a strong start to the season. Only one game behind the Bucks will have them very much focused on claiming a division title.

The Pacers have been efficient with their offense, ranking comparably with Milwaukee in FG and 3PT percentages. They’ve also been just as strong defensively overall.

The Pacers’ issue has been not scoring enough, as evidenced by their 24th overall offense. That proved costly earlier this season in their matchup against the Bucks.

The Pacers’ issue has been not scoring enough, as evidenced by their 24th overall offense. That proved costly earlier this season in their matchup against the Bucks. Despite only being 3.5 point favorites, Milwaukee rolled Indiana to the tune of 118-101 and outscored them in each of the first three quarters.

The Pacers have five players averaging double-digits in PPG as well with Victor Oladipo leading the way at 23.0. The next closest is Domantas Sabonis at 13.9.

For Indiana to keep up in the Central they’ll need to improve their pace of play and three point attempts, two categories they rank near the bottom of the league in.

Best Bet To Win the Central

If we’re talking best bet, it’s hard to look past the Bucks. They’ve only lost twice, handed Toronto their sole loss of the season and are undefeated at home. But we’re talking value and right now you’re laying almost two-to-one odds when they still have 72 more games to play.

Milwaukee’s next three games come against the Warriors (10-1), Clippers (6-4) and Nuggets (9-1).

The Bucks’ two losses have come on the road and that’s exactly where they’ll be heading for their next three games. Those games come against the Warriors (10-1), Clippers (6-4) and Nuggets (9-1).

Milwaukee could be primed to cool off, meaning a better price may be around the corner by next week. Wait for a better price or take a shot on the Pacers to win the Central.

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