Cavs Enter 2018 NBA Finals as Monumental Underdogs

• Get ready for a case of déjà vu as the Cavs and Warriors face off in the NBA Finals for the fourth consecutive year
• The Warriors are heavily favored to win their second straight championship. Will they sweep the Cavs?
• Will Kevin Love return in time for Game 1?

The NBA Finals are starting to feel an awful lot like Groundhog Day.

For the fourth time in four years, the league’s championship will be decided by the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. It’s the same old story we’ve all lived through before as the Warriors enter the best-of-seven series once again as overwhelming favorites.

Golden State’s average odds to win the 2018 NBA Finals have improved drastically from -160 on May 23rd to -990 on May 28th across a number of top online betting sites. The Warriors are currently available as short as -1100, and as long as -800.

The Warriors entered the 2017-18 season as odds-on favorites to win their second straight championship and haven’t deviated from that path. Their average odds were -170 on opening night and improved to -215 on January 30th after reeling off a pair of four-game winning streaks.

The only time Vegas lost any faith in Golden State was in early April when the Warriors were blown out in back-to-back games by the Pacers and Pelicans. Their average odds briefly rose to +120 before returning to -105 towards the end of the month.

The Warriors have since gone 12-5 in the postseason and have the best defensive rating and second best offensive rating of any playoff team. Their remarkable balance has been a big part of their success, but they’ve also caught some lucky breaks.

Golden State dodged a bullet when Kawhi Leonard elected to sit out their first round series, and avoided another tough match-up when Pelicans center DeMarcus Cousins was forced to sit out their second round series due to a season-ending injury.

Eric Gordon: “If Chris was out there we’d be playing on Thursday.”

— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) May 29, 2018

Their biggest stroke of luck occurred in the final minute of Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals when Chris Paul suffered a strained hamstring. The Rockets point guard was averaging 21.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists at the time and was making life miserable for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson with his gritty on-ball defense. Had he been healthy, the Rockets may never have relinquished the 17-point lead they built up in Game 6.

Unlike Golden State, Cleveland has been far from a sure bet in 2017-18. The Cavs entered the season with average odds of +370 and rose to +810 on March 19th after a disappointing West Coast road trip left them just ten games above .500.

Their average postseason odds have been as long as +1200 as the Cavs needed seven games apiece to dispatch the Pacers and Celtics. Cleveland now enters the NBA Finals with average odds of +670. Those are the longest odds they’ve faced in their last four championship runs, and they suggest this series could be over in a hurry.

Game 1 is scheduled for Thursday night at Oracle Arena and – surprise, surprise – sportsbooks aren’t giving the Cavs much of a fighting chance. Cleveland opened as 12-point underdogs on Tuesday morning and that line may get even bigger depending upon the status of Kevin Love.

Ty Lue says that Kevin Love is still in the concussion protocol and he’s “not sure” if he’ll be available for Game 1.

— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) May 29, 2018

The five-time All-Star missed the final game of the Eastern Conference Finals with concussion-like symptoms and remains questionable for the start of the series. The Cavs managed to eke out a win without him in Game 7, but they’ll need every bit of firepower they can get when they face the vastly superior Warriors on Thursday.

Check out our 2017-18 NBA Championship Odds Tracker to see how the odds of all 30 teams have fluctuated since the beginning of the season.