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Celtics vs Heat Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Mar 29, 2022 · 8:15 PM PDT

Jayson Tatum celebrates after a bucket
Mar 27, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) shouts after dunking against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Celtics vs Heat odds favor Boston by 5-points on Wednesday (March 30) at 7:30pm ET
  • Boston has won 24 of its past 29 games
  • Read below for the Celtics vs Heat odds, analysis, and betting prediction

It’s looking like the race for first place in the Eastern Conference will come down to the wire this season. Four teams are within 1.5 games of each other in the fight for top spot, including Miami and Boston, who will meet on Wednesday.

The Heat currently lead the conference by half a game over Milwaukee, while Boston is one game back in third, and Philadelphia is 1.5 games behind in fourth.

Heat vs Celtics Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Miami Heat +175 +5 (-110) O 214.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -210 -5 (-110) U 214.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 29th at BetMGM.

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The hometown Celtics opened up as a 3-point favorite over Miami, but that number didn’t last long. Boston is now favored by 5-points, in a contest that features a total of 214.5. The line move likely has something to do with some favorable Celtics news on the injury front – more on that later.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at TD Garden in Boston, MA, and a game of this magnitude is getting the primetime treatment nationwide on ESPN.

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

As mentioned, Boston got good news on the injury front on Tuesday, a day after playing in Toronto minus three starters and their top reserve. The Celtics managed to take a full strength Raptors team to overtime, despite missing Jayson Tatum (knee), Jaylen Brown (knee), Al Horford (personal) and Robert Williams (knee).

Boston ultimately fell short against Toronto, snapping a six-game winning streak, but will be near full strength Wednesday. Both Tatum and Brown are probable, while Horford is completely off the injury report. Williams however, suffered a torn meniscus on Sunday and is out indefinitely.

The Celtics enter play on a roll offensively. They’ve scored at least 124 points in five of their past six games, and have won 24 of their past 29 contests overall. They currently rank first in defensive rating, and lead the league in scoring defense, opponent field goal percentage, and opponent three-point efficiency.

Plenty of experts are now picking them to come out of the East, and they currently boast shorter odds to win the conference than the first-place Heat. Pretty remarkable considering they were 21-22 and in 11th place in the East on January 15th.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Miami snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday, handing Sacramento a 123-100 defeat. Jimmy Butler led the offense with 27 points, whole Bam Adebayo poured in 22 points and grabbed 15 boards. The Heat shot a blistering 54.4% from the field and cleared 106 points for the first time six games.

Wednesday marks the start of a gruelling three-game road trip for Miami that will likely determine if they can finish first or not. After their tilt with the Celtics, they’ll play at the fifth-place Chicago Bulls on Saturday, and at the sixth-place Raptors on Sunday.

On the injury front, the Heat’s starting five is healthy, something that hasn’t been the case very often this season. Caleb Martin (calf), Duncan Robinson (illness) and Gabe Vincent (toe), on the other hand, are all listed questionable.

Celtics vs Heat Pick

If you were able to grab Celtics -3 when the line opened, props to you. At -5, the value seems to be all dried up so let’s target the under instead. These are two of the top-five defenses in the NBA, and Miami has been struggling offensively, last game notwithstanding.

The Heat have fallen to 17th in points per game this season, and have produced an average of just 85 points per outing in two losses to Boston. The Celtics allow 1.5 points less at home than on the road, while both meetings against Miami have failed to reach 215 points.

The under is 30-26 in Boston games when they’re favored, and they’ve recently held playoff contenders Utah, Denver, Golden State and Dallas all to 104 points or less this month.

This tilt has all the makings of a low scoring, hard fought, postseason type contest so bet accordingly.

Pick: Under 214.5 (-110)

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