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Doncic’s 2019 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds Continue Getting Shorter

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 9:01 AM PDT

Luka Doncic in European competition.
Luka Doncic may be a mystery to NBA fans, but he's already a huge star in Europe. Photo by Javier Mendia Garcia (Wikimedia Commons).
  • Luka Doncic has emerged as the early favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors
  • Can the Slovenian teen maintain his slim lead over Deandre Ayton?
  • Will Cavs point guard Collin Sexton overtake both players and claim the award for himself?

Luka Doncic’s odds to win the 2019 NBA Rookie of the Year award keep on getting shorter just as the hype surrounding his multifaceted game keeps on getting louder.

The 19-year-old Slovenian has seen his average odds improve from +300 as recently as  October 4th to +250 on October 15th. That brief stretch featured a pair of eye-popping performances against the 76ers and the Hornets in which Doncic showcased his full repertoire of skills.

2019 NBA Rookie of the Year Average Odds

The former Euroleague MVP looked especially sharp in his October 12th tune-up against Charlotte, going off for 18 points, four rebounds, four assists, and three steals in just 31 minutes. Doncic got out in transition, set up teammates with pinpoint passes, and used his length and superb footwork to hit multiple step-back threes.

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It’s unlikely he’ll be given the green light to launch 10 three-pointers in a regular season game as he did against the Hornets, but the fact that he feels comfortable letting the ball fly so early in his career is a positive sign.

Doncic averaged 15 points, five rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals in just under 30 minutes per game.

Overall, Doncic averaged 15 points, five rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals in just under 30 minutes per game. He showed steady improvement from one game to the next and his 47.5% field goal percentage and 43.5% three-point percentage suggest that he can be a highly efficient scorer this year and beyond.

2019 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Team Draft Position  Odds on 10/15/18
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks 3 +250
Deandre Ayton Phoenix Suns 1 +275
Collin Sexton Cleveland Cavaliers 8 +700
Kevin Knox New York Knicks 9 +700
Trae Young Atlanta Hawks 5 +1000

The one knock on Doncic is his defense, and there were numerous moments in the preseason when faster and more athletic opponents caught him flat footed or beat him to the rim. Like most rookies it will take him longer to catch up on that end of the court, but Doncic has the basketball IQ and court awareness to mature into a  decent team defender.

Deandre Ayton is Hot on Doncic’s Heels

Doncic isn’t the only player whose average NBA Rookie of the Year odds improved. Deandre Ayton’s odds also shortened from +350 on October 4th to +290 on October 15th. The Bahamian big man has more than justified his high draft selection by averaging 18.2 points, 10 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and two blocks in five preseason games.

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Scouts expected Ayton to dominate on the block from Day 1, but his playmaking has been a pleasant surprise. Phoenix head coach Igor Kokoskov has already likened Ayton to Suns Hall of Famer Steve Nash, and Devin Booker has repeatedly praised him for his vision and unselfishness.

“He knows how to play the game the right way,” Booker has said. “Somebody’s open, he makes the pass. If it’s one-on-one, he makes the play he needs to make. It’s a lot of maturity for a first-year player.”

Is there Value in Betting on Doncic or Ayton?

Doncic and Ayton have both looked outstanding so far, but you’re not going to get much value at +250 and +290 respectively. If you’re looking for more bang for your buck we’d suggest Cavs point guard Collin Sexton at +700. The fleet-footed Alabama product is, in many ways, Doncic’s polar opposite. He’s small, fast, athletic, and has plenty of playground flair to his game.

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Like Doncic, he can also really ball. Sexton averaged 9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game in the preseason and hit an ungodly 57% of his three point attempts. You won’t find many players who can get from baseline to baseline faster or convert a higher number of shots from beyond the arc.

The Cavs have little to play for in 2018-19 and Sexton should get plenty of burn as a part-time starter and change-of-pace guard off the bench. It’s too early to tell just what he’ll become, but his upside is undeniable.

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