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Heat vs Hawks Game 3 Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Apr 21, 2022 · 7:42 PM PDT

Jimmy Butler iso during a stoppage
Apr 17, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) reacts to a foul called during the first half of game one of the first round for the 2022 NBA playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Heat vs Hawks Game 3 odds favor Miami by 1 point on Friday, April 22 at 7pm ET
  • Miami leads the series 2-0 after taking both games at home
  • Read below for the Heat vs Hawks odds, analysis, and betting prediction

Through two games the Miami Heat have looked every bit the part of a number one seed.

They’ve posted back-to-back double-digit victories over the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round of the playoffs, and can take a commanding 3-0 series lead when the two teams meet again on Friday (April 22).

Heat vs Hawks Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Miami Heat -115 -1 (-110) O 221.5 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks -105 +1 (-110) U 221.5 (-110)

Odds as of April 21st from FanDuel Sportsbook

The Heat opened up as a 1-point road favorite, in a contest that features a total of 221.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm ET at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

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Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

Jimmy Butler fuelled Miami’s latest victory, scoring a playoff career-high 45 points in Game 2, knocking down 15-of-25 attempts including 4-of-7 three’s.

Tyler Herro chipped in 15 points off the bench, while Max Strus also splashed 14. The Heat shot 48% from the field and 38.9% from three, which followed a 52.4% shooting performance in Game 1.

Bogdan Bogdanovic led the Hawks with 29 points in a losing effort, while Trae Young added 25 points. Young’s performance was a dramatic improvement from his 8 point effort in Game 1, but Young committed a career-worst 10 turnovers.

Atlanta coughed the ball up 19 times which led to 19 Miami points, and have committed 37 turnovers in the first two games of the series.

The Heat are now an overwhelming -1600 favorite to advance to the Second Round, while the Hawks are +900 to overcome this deficit.

Miami has never blown a 2-0 postseason lead in 17 previous opportunities, while Atlanta is 0-25 all-time when falling behind 0-2. Obviously things don’t look good for the Hawks at the moment, but they can take solace in the fact that four teams overcame 0-2 deficits in last year’s postseason.

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Injury News

Injury wise, Atlanta will once again be without starting center Clint Capela. The 27-year-old suffered a knee injury in the Hawks’ second Play-In Tournament game and hasn’t played since. His elite rebounding and rim protecting have been sorely missed this series, and Atlanta is winless in three games against Miami without him this season.

The Hawks will also be without Lou Williams due to a back injury. Williams, like Capela, hasn’t played all series.

As for the Heat, there’s a laundry list of players who are questionable but none are expected to sit out at the moment. The list includes starters Bam Adebayo (quad) and P.J. Tucker (undisclosed), as well as reserves Gabe Vincent (toe), Caleb Martin (ankle) and Markieff Morris (undisclosed).

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Pick

Miami enters play on Friday winners of eight of its last nine games both straight up and against the spread. They’re 5-1 versus Atlanta this season, splitting the two meetings at the State Farm Arena.

The Hawks, meanwhile, had covered in nine of their past 11 contests prior to this series starting, and are an NBA-best 20-3 straight up at home since January 17th.

Given Atlanta’s recent home prowess it makes sense that Miami is just a short favorite, especially considering the Hawks season is on the line. Instead of targeting the point spread, let’s look at playing the total.

Both matchups this series have fallen short of the number, as have three of the Heat’s past four contests overall. Atlanta has been an under bettor’s personal ATM lately, as eight of the Hawks past nine games have failed to eclipse the total.

Miami’s fourth ranked unit per defensive rating has been lights out so far, and dating back to the regular season has allowed an average of only 103 points per game to Atlanta. Five of their six matchups have failed to eclipse 222 points, and the Heat love to slow the pace down which limits offensive possessions.

During the regular season only Dallas and New York played slower, while the Hawks ranked below league average in pace as well.

Pick: Under 221.5 (-110)

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