Mavericks vs Jazz Game 1 Odds and Picks

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

After all that work to get home-court advantage for at least Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks got hit with of the cruelest blows their team never expected.

That is right. Luka Doncic is out due to a calf injury. What is Doncic to the Mavericks? Well, basically he is almost their everything and anything.

Mavs front office source confirms Luka Doncic will not play in tomorrow’s Game 1 against the Utah Jazz.

That same front office source said Doncic playing in Game 2, however, is “definitely possible”.

— Mike Leslie (@MikeLeslieWFAA) April 15, 2022

Unfortunately, maybe Dallas could have tried to use some load management here with Doncic. Go figure. Calf injuries can be very fickle so there is a chance the all-world player could miss just one game. He averages nearly 29-9-9 every time out. That is next to impossible to replace in a lineup, even at home.

Dallas cemented their seed in the playoffs behind a four-game winning streak obviously marred by the Doncic injury. Tim Hardaway Jr. will be out as well due to a foot issue.

It will be interesting to see how Dallas re-centers their offense without Doncic for an entire game. The Mavericks went 8-9 without the MVP candidate in the regular season. The last five times this happened, Dallas played lesser competition in Sacramento and Houston. Utah expects to be a different animal.

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

Utah wound up with the fifth seed in the West finishing just three games short of the fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks. They lost six of their last 10 games and nearly dropped even further than fifth. Minnesota and Denver were that close behind.

Donovan Mitchell says Jazz can’t afford to lose focus against Mavs in games Luka Doncic misses https://t.co/quefpJNBvv

— Brad Townsend (@townbrad) April 15, 2022

The Jazz are thankful to have a healthy Donovan Mitchell in the lineup after he went through a bout of illness himself. He is 100% right considering Dallas won the last two meetings against Utah.

Now, Doncic was in the lineup which makes this game or games mean that much more. Utah has the style to push Dallas out of their 30th-ranked pace. Their offensive rating tops the NBA at 116.7.

Utah finished 4-2 over their last half dozen games of the regular season. They narrowly lost to Phoenix and nearly toppled Golden State. The Jazz played much better than the stretch preceding their final run.

Mavericks vs Jazz Pick

The split season series told several different stories and again, Utah’s key was controlling the glass. They played much better when they cleaned up on both sides of the court. Even second-chance points became a bit easier. That has to keep happening.

Pressure clearly resides on the Utah side of the ledger. If they cannot score off of their set plays, Dallas has the ability to win without Doncic. Utah has to stay focused.

The Utah Jazz are 24-24 their last 48 games too https://t.co/7kTlD1Tudl

— Block Sr. (@517to214) April 16, 2022

Under trends have been cashing at a higher rate in Mavericks games — even at home. Overall, Dallas saw the over connect just 31 times on the season with 50 games going to the under. Once, there was a push. As for Utah, 10 of their last 12 games have seen the under make bettors money.

Another reason to like the under on Saturday is the turtle-like pace at which both teams play. The Mavericks possess the slowest pace in the league, while the Jazz run the 9th-slowest offense.

Pick: Under 209 (-110)