Odds Against LeBron’s Lakers Making 2019 NBA Playoffs

• LeBron James and the Lakers have a 25 game sprint to sneak into playoffs.
• The eighth-seeded Clippers have a three-game lead over their LA rivals.
• What’s the best bet to make here?

A 20-point comeback to win by 14 in the 2019 All-Star Game? Big deal.

Carrying your inexperienced squad into the playoffs in the ultra-competitive West? Real deal.

LeBron James full highlights in 2019 All-Star game- 19 pts, 8 rebs, 4 assist! pic.twitter.com/noIHaepKTo

— TheLakeShow (@TheLakeShow16) February 19, 2019

That’s the task facing LeBron James in his first season with the Los Angeles Lakers. With 25 games left to go in the regular season, his team sits in 10th place, three games behind the LA Clippers, with the ninth-place Kings sandwiched between them.

Perhaps missing the playoffs has become a recent rite of passage for the rebuilding Lakers (who haven’t been in the postseason since 2013), but it hasn’t been for James.

Let’s check out the battle.

Odds to Make NBA Western Conference Playoffs

*Odds taken on 02/19/19

Are the Lakers Capable of Making a Run?

Even with James in the lineup, the Lakers best 25-game stretch this year is a 17-8 mark. And that won’t likely cut it.

Another factor working against them is that they have just three head-to-head tilts with the teams they are currently chasing: two with the Clippers and one against the Kings.

LeBron James' comments on us potentially missing the playoffs. ?#Lakers pic.twitter.com/Mzc79rKasb

— LakeShow (@LakeShowCP) February 13, 2019

And there are some heavies dotting their calendar: the Lakers have nine games against teams that are currently sitting in the top-four playoff positions in both the East and West, including a home-and-home with the Bucks, a visit to Toronto and another matchup with Boston.

And even if they make it out of that alive, check out this final five West gauntlet to close out the regular season: at OKC, Warriors, at Clippers, Jazz and Trail Blazers.

A Healthy LeBron Gives Lakers Hope

LeBron James making the playoffs has been the can’t lose bet of the past dozen years. Not since his second season in the league has James failed to make the 16-team playoff, including making the Finals the last eight years.

But James’ move to LA hasn’t been the smoothest one. This season’s groin injury has already cost him more injury games than he’s ever had to deal with in any of his previous 15 years.

"He can't be the best player in the world and not be playing in the playoffs."

— @criscarter80 on LeBron James pic.twitter.com/MmD5sErPeK

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) February 13, 2019

After helping guide his team out of a shaky start to the year, James’ Lakers were 20-14, a top-four seed in the West with a crushing win over the Warriors on Christmas Day.

They’ve gone 8-15 since, and just 2-3 with James back in the lineup.

Btw, 15 of the Lakers’ remaining 25 games are against teams currently in the playoffs.

— Lakers Lair (@LakersLair) February 13, 2019

We have marveled a lot at James over the years, but this might be his most daunting assignment. There are no All-NBA reinforcements coming, and this roster construction has been flawed, to say the least.

LA ranks 15th overall in scoring, 26th in three-point shooting, and commits the second-most turnovers in the NBA.

Where’s Lebron’s leadership? As much as he delivers with stats, he’s not leading the troops. Obvious this team is not united and Lebron is to blame for that as well.

His body language is bad, his defense is bad…He’s the best player in the world, but team needs his leadership

— Allen Sliwa (@LakersTalkESPN) February 13, 2019

Defensively, they are surrendering over 113 points a night. While they’ve been buoyed by holding teams to the sixth best field goal percentage in the league, they are also 29th in offensive rebounds allowed, wiping out all that goodwill.

Will Kings James and the Kings Both Sneak In?

Until we see a LeBron James-led team miss the playoffs, and we’ve outlined a bevy of reasons why it’s going to happen, this is still one of the all-time greats at the tail end of his prime. While the schedule doesn’t do them any favors, those teams also have to go against James. I’m taking the Lakers to make the playoffs.

If the Clippers miss the playoffs this year, they will keep their first round pick and Boston will not retain it.

That means the Clippers improved their odds of trading for Anthony Davis while simultaneously hurting Boston’s chances.

— T.J. McBride (@TJMcBrideNBA) February 6, 2019

Who gets squeezed out? The moves (and draft incentive) are in place for the Clippers to falter, especially after dealing their lone All-Star level player in Tobias Harris. Still, Doc Rivers has a group of hard working vets and hungry young players that haven’t slid as precipitously as many had imagined.

Montrezl Harrell with the dunk AND the stare-down on DeAndre Jordan ? pic.twitter.com/8OENkzOxXb

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) December 3, 2018

The home stretch should drag them down, as they play nine games of their final 25 against teams in playoff position and those two head-to-heads against the Lakers.

According to ESPN Kings have only a 9.5% probability of making the playoffs (still better than the Lakers)

•Kings- the only above .500 team with a negative point differential

•21st most difficult remaining schedule (drops further after next 4 games)

•40-42 = 10-15 to finish pic.twitter.com/t0KlrLm1yo

— Blancito (@Blancito_Sacto) February 16, 2019

There is one other juicy bet that we have to discuss. Is it worth laying a wager on the Kings to make the playoffs at +425? With such good value, I wouldn’t blame you for betting both the Lakers and Kings to make the playoffs, if you believe the Clippers will fade.

One of those two will sneak in and make you a winner.