Spurs vs Thunder Picks & Player Props to Bet in Game 1

• The Spurs and Thunder meet in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final tonight
• Chet Holmgren over 1.5 made threes is a strong value in the props market, based on his elite 52.6% home-court shooting splits against San Antonio’s interior defense
• Keep reading for my favorite Spurs vs Thunder picks and player props to bet in Game 1

The Western Conference Final tips off tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in a heavyweight clash. The Thunder are currently listed as healthy favorites in the NBA odds, and will look to capitalize on the stellar postseason play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren.

On the other side, the Spurs enter as a dangerous road underdog, fueled by Victor Wembanyama and the dynamic playmaking of De’Aaron Fox. Both stars have been formidable, setting the stage for an epic series.

SGA and Wemby are sure to draw more action in tonight’s player props market, but I actually see value on both Holmgren and Fox in separate categories. Keep reading for my favorite Spurs vs Thunder picks and player props to bet in Game 1, plus the reasoning behind each selection.

Thunder vs Spurs Player Prop Odds in Game 1

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

My favorite player props wager in this clash of NBA Championship odds contenders is over 1.5 made threes for Holmgren. The slim sniper is shooting 60% from the field in the postseason, and 38% from beyond the arc.

In the Spurs backcourt, Fox’s playmaking generates interesting splits. His assists total sits at 5.5, but the odds for the under are heavily juiced to -139. Oklahoma City averages 10.2 steals and forces 17.4 turnovers per game. Against this swarming perimeter defense, the market is banking on Fox struggling to generate dimes, which is why he’s popping in our NBA player prop analyzer.

Spurs vs Thunder Picks and Player Props to Bet in Game 1

• Chet Holmgren OVER 1.5 Made Threes (+124 at Bet365)
• De’Aaron Fox UNDER 5.5 Assists (-139 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Oddsmakers set Holmgren’s three-point line at 1.5 with enticing plus-money on the over, but his recent shooting splits at home scream value. During the regular season, he was a modest perimeter threat, averaging 1.3 made threes per game. However, his volume and efficiency have skyrocketed during these playoffs.

In four home playoff games this season, Holmgren is sinking threes at a scorching 52.6% clip, resulting in an average of 2.5 makes per game. He has eclipsed this 1.5 threshold in 75% of those home contests.

San Antonio’s defense is incredibly stout inside, but they surrender 12 made threes per game on the road. Expect Oklahoma City to purposefully space the floor against a slow halfcourt defense, giving Holmgren plenty of clean looks from the perimeter.

Fox was a prolific distributor during the regular season, posting 6.2 assists across 72 contests. However, the intensity of the playoffs has caused his playmaking output to fall off a cliff. He is averaging just 4.8 assists over his last five playoff games, cashing the under on this 5.5 assists line in 80% of those matchups.

This situational trend perfectly aligns with the defensive matchup. Oklahoma City held opponents to an average of just 23.4 assists per game during this playoff run.

With passing lanes clogged by disruptive perimeter defenders like Luguentz Dort, Fox will be forced to get up and down the court and hunt his own shot. His individual scoring will take priority over racking up assists. I am comfortably laying the juice on this under.