Thunder vs Timberwolves Predictions, Expert Picks & Odds for Game 3

• The OKC Thunder are 2.5-point road favorites in Game 3 of the Western Confernece Finals vs Minnesota
• The Timberwolves return home after being blown out in Games 1 and 2
• See my Thunder vs Timberwolves Game 3 predictions, player props, and odds on May 23

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No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, so that means it’s about as close to do-or-die as it is for the Minnesota Timberwolves as they host the OKC Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals.

The Thunder hammered Minnesota in Games 1 and 2, winning both by double digits, and are now 2.5-point road favorites in the NBA odds.

The Timberwolves have lost just once at home these playoffs, and are coming off back-to-back losses for the first time this postseaosn.

Game 3 tips off Saturday night at 8:30pm ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, with ABC carrying the broadcast.

Thunder vs Timberwolves Odds

Odds as of May 23 at FanDuel. Be sure to check out the best FanDuel promo code before placing a bet on any NBA game on Saturday.

OKC Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks

• Thunder vs Timberwolves pick: Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)

The Timberwolves got to the West Final absolutely punishing the small-ball Lakers and Warriors, but they have been met head on defensively by the Thunder.

OKC is holding opponents to 102.8 points per game in the playoffs, limiting them to 40.8% from the field and 30.8% from 3-point range.

The T-Wolves have been held to 95.5 points through the first two games of the West Finals, and have shot just 38.2% from the field and 28.9% from 3-point range.

Conversely, a Minnesota defense that ranked third in the playoffs in points per game is getting torched by the Thunder, who are averaging 116 points per game on 50% shooting.

Thunder vs Timberwolves Playoff Statistics

The T-Wolves are getting no easy baskets, while OKC is averaging 14.5 fast break points per game, 10 more than what Minnesota is getting in transition.

And that bully ball that ran over LA and GState? The Thunder are pounding the paint, outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 56-32 points in the paint so far in this series.

Can a change of scenery do that much for Minnesota? In this case, I’m betting it can. For as good as OKC has looked, from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander all the way down to Cason Wallace, this is still a young team in its first Final Four.

It’ll go unnoticed because the Timberwolves lost but 32-9-6 with 0 turnovers against one of the best defenses ever is no small feat

Anthony Edwards wasn’t perfect by any means but he took very good care of the basketball and was attacking downhill pic.twitter.com/IvpxllQysx

— Joel Moran (@joelvmoran) May 23, 2025

The Timberwolves are out of sorts, but they can find their way back with a win in Game 3. Denver got a split in OKC before returning home and dropping the Thunder, holding them to just 104 points, and an average of 98 points over Games 3 and 4.

Those are also two of the lowest scoring output games by SGA, the only two sub-30 outings he’s posted in the last 11 playoff games.

Minnesota is going to have to get better play from its starters — a Julius Randle bounceback and a Rudy Gobert anything would be nice — a repeat of contributions from its reserves, and its best defensive effort of the playoffs just to get back in this series.

I think it all comes together in Game 3.

Thunder vs Timberwolves Player Props

NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook on May 23. Download the top NBA betting apps for the NBA playoffs.

I just don’t think there’s any way that Julius Randle doesn’t bounce back in Game 3. He suffered through his worst game of the playoffs, scoring just six points on 2-for-11 shooting and was benched the entire fourth quarter.

This, after scoring at least 22 points in nine of his last 10 outings. His low over that period, 18 points in a Game 1 over Golden State, would be enough to go Over his total set for Game 3.

Randle looked hurried and uncomfortable driving the ball and gathering it to get up. He’s turned the ball over nine times over two games.

While Anthony Edwards is the best player for the Wolves, Randle needs to be an offensive cog to keep Minny competitive and in position to pull out a win in Game 3.

• Thunder vs Timberwolves player prop bet: Randle Over 17.5 points (-125)