Updated ROY Odds Have Ja Morant as Near Lock at -3000; Is Zion Williamson Worth a Bet at +900?
- Ja Morant has been the runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year for much of the season – his odds are -3000 ahead of the NBA’s resumption
- Each team has eight regular season games – will Zion Williamson be able to put Morant under pressure?
- Odds, betting discussion and a pick are all available below
The NBA Rookie of the Year race has been a peculiar one. Ja Morant took a commanding lead early on. Zion Williamson missed a large portion of the season, but looked in position to make a charge before the season was postponed.
All of the 22 teams heading to Orlando for the NBA’s resumption will play eight regular season games. That’s eight games for Zion to overturn the deficit he has to Morant, which as the odds suggest, is a hefty task.
The Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans will be picking up where they left off, battling for the eight-seed in the Western Conference, and could yet face one another in a play-in tournament.
The table below has the latest 2020 Rookie of the Year odds, making Morant the overwhelming favorite to win the award.
2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ja Morant | -3000 |
| Zion Williamson | +900 |
Odds taken June 10th
Quantity Hard to Defeat
With just 19 NBA games under his belt, Williamson faces an uphill battle to re-open the Rookie of the Year conversation. He will have played a maximum of 27 games by the time the regular season is wrapped up.
Joel Embiid, who played 31 games as a rookie and clearly had a better year than Malcolm Brogdon, failed to win the award. Williamson, in the shape of Morant, faces much tougher competition.
It is a quality versus quantity conversation. Morant has played 40 more games than Zion – the quantity argument is straight forward.
The chasm in performance between Embiid and Brogdon was far greater than Morant and Williamson. It’s hard to argue that Morant has been more impactful than Zion, but he has immediately influenced winning, leading the Memphis Grizzlies to the eight seed with 65 games played. That’s a rare feat for a rookie point guard.
Opportunity for Zion
At times, any regular season games being played seemed unlikely. Rumors of the NBA’s return were changing on an almost daily basis. The eventual plan features a shortened regular season and a much more challenging schedule for the New Orleans Pelicans, who were set to have the easiest stretch run in the NBA.
Williamson could have posted some gaudy numbers against the teams protecting their lottery odds. He was already dominating, scoring over 23 per contest and converting almost 60% of his field goal attempts. His 24.2 PER would have placed 12th in the NBA, ahead of Trae Young, Jimmy Butler and Bradley Beal.
The standard Zion produced in his first 19 NBA games lived up to the hype. He proved he is already a force against the world’s best. Many bettors would have fancied the Pelicans to chase the Grizz down for the final playoff spot with the way Williamson was playing.
The eight remaining games give him an opportunity to shine brighter still. Adding those eight games was a financial decision, of course, but it would be foolish to dismiss the NBA’s desire to get Zion back on the court. He’s already one of the league’s biggest stars.
What It Takes
At +900, Williamson will tempt some bettors. An injury to Morant would certainly open the door for the former Duke forward.
There are some obvious requirements for Williamson to stand a chance. The Pels need to, at the very least, force a play-in tournament. He needs to continue, or build on, the form he showed before the league was suspended. Morant and the Grizz need to struggle down the stretch (they were only 8-20 against teams over .500).
The odds are a fair reflection of the Rookie of the Year discussion right now. Truncating the regular season has harmed Williamson’s chances. While he’s still in with a shout, the scenarios where he wins the vote are extreme. It would take a 1-7 or 0-8 run from Memphis and the reverse from the Pels for Williamson to succeed Luka Doncic as NBA Rookie of the Year.
Pick: Ja Morant (-3000)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
