Why Each Team in the West Won’t Win the NBA Championship
- The Rockets have the top offensive rating in the NBA. Is this the year they overtake the Warriors?
- Will Kawhi Leonard end his self-imposed exile and rejoin the Spurs?
- Find out why each Eastern Conference team won’t win the NBA championship
The NBA’s Western Conference contenders are a lot like Superman: they may appear unbeatable at first, but they all have a secret weakness that can be used against them. In the case of some clubs it’s an overreliance on threes, while in others it’s a crippling lack of playoff experience.
We’ve identified each team’s kryptonite and have set the odds on their chances of hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy this June.
Houston Rockets: A History of Playoff Failure
The Rockets may look like winners, but the franchise is full of players and personnel who have consistently come up short in the playoffs. It starts at the top with Mike D’Antoni, who has a losing record in the postseason despite coaching multiple league MVPs.
Chris Paul’s been bounced out of the first round four times and has never advanced to the Conference Finals.
It continues with Chris Paul, who’s been bounced out of the first round four times and has never advanced to the Conference Finals.
It extends to James Harden, who replaced Amelia Earhart as America’s most famous missing person after disappearing against the Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Rockets’ luck may change in 2018, but history is stacked against them.
Odds Houston will win the NBA championship: 13/7
Golden State Warriors: The Rockets Have Their Number
The Warriors may have been built to win championships, but the Rockets have been built to beat the Warriors, and so far this season they’ve done a damn good job of it. Houston has defeated Golden State in two of the three games they’ve played in 2017-18, and likely would have swept their Pacific Divisions rivals were it not for the fact Harden sat out their second match-up on January 4th.
Befitting a team run by Daryl Morey, Houston also has an analytical advantage. The Rockets rank ahead of the Warriors in offensive rating, plus/minus, rebounding percentage, steals, and three pointers made and taken. You don’t need a calculator to know it all adds up to an early exit for the defending champs.
Odds Golden State will win the NBA championship: 7/3
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russ’s Crippling Lack of Self-Awareness
Russell Westbrook’s refusal to acknowledge his limitations is both his greatest gift and his greatest curse. It benefits the Thunder when he throws down ferocious dunks on players nearly twice his size, but it comes back to bite the team in the ass when he insists on launching 30-footers like he’s a brawny version of Steph Curry.
Westbrook is taking 4.1 threes per game this season and is hitting just 29-percent of them. That’s a major problem for a team with far more talented shooters, and it will lead to an early exit for OKC when he goes into hero mode and tries to shoot the Thunder back into games.
Odds Oklahoma City will win the NBA championship: 33/1
San Antonio Spurs: Lack of Star Power
Historically speaking, only three teams in the last 23 years have won an NBA championship with just one All-Star. The Bulls did it in 1998 because of Michael Jordan, the Spurs pulled it off in 2003 thanks to Tim Duncan and a trio of future Hall of Famers, and Detroit did it in 2004 with a suffocating defense led by Ben Wallace.
Aldridge is still a formidable presence, but he lacks the kind of A-list help he needs to nudge San Antonio into the Finals.
The Spurs were supposed to have two All-Stars this season, but Kawhi Leonard’s lingering quad injury and inexplicable refusal to play has left LaMarcus Aldridge to carry the Spurs on his own. The veteran forward is still a formidable presence, but he lacks the kind of A-list help he needs to nudge San Antonio into the Finals.
Odds San Antonio will win the NBA championship: 40/1
Portland Trail Blazers: A Top-Heavy Offense
Apparently no one ever told the Blazers that sharing is caring. Portland ranks dead last in assist ratio and assist percentage, and are 28th in the league in assist to turnover ratio. Their top-heavy, guard-dominant offense hasn’t been a huge issue in the regular season, but it will be fatal in the playoffs when opposing teams swarm Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum while sagging off of lesser threats like Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner.
DO THE DAME THING @DAME_LILLARD! pic.twitter.com/qzCOzrWrsI
— Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) April 2, 2018
Dame and CJ are good enough to win a game on their own, but the Blazers won’t begin winning series until all five players on the court touch the rock.
Odds Portland will win the NBA championship: 50/1
Utah Jazz: Their Best Player is a Rookie
Donovan Mitchell is a phenomenal player and deserving of the many plaudits he’s received this season. He’s also just 21-years-old and has only played 74 games in the NBA. In the last 60 years, the only rookies who have ever led their teams to an NBA championship are Bill Russell, Tom Heinsohn, and Magic Johnson. That’s it. Spida is good, but he isn’t that good.
Donovan Mitchell is CLUTCH pic.twitter.com/mb0BgoAGrd
— BATTLES NBA™ (@BattlesNBA) March 24, 2018
Odds Utah will win the NBA championship: 100/1
Minnesota Timberwolves: No Jimmy G Buckets
Few teams rely more on their best player than the Timberwolves, who alternate between looking like the Harlem Globetrotters when Jimmy Butler is on the court, and the Washington Generals when he rests. That’s a particularly big concern since the four-time All-Star is still recovering from surgery to repair his right meniscus and has only recently returned to practicing with his teammates.
Until Butler is back at 100-percent, the Wolves have zero chance of raising a championship banner in 2018.
Odds Minnesota will win the NBA championship: 150/1
New Orleans Pelicans: An Appalling Lack of Depth
The Pelicans’ bench doesn’t have an catchy nickname, but if they’re looking for one we’d recommend The Witness Protection Program since their reserves are totally unidentifiable and disappear for long stretches at a time.
Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday will have to take a breather at some point in the playoffs and when they do, opposing teams will light up the scoreboard.
NOLA’s second unit average just 28.2 points per game and are 28th in the league in point differential at -10.2. For much of the season that wasn’t a big deal, but DeMarcus Cousins’ Achilles injury has stretched their rotation to the breaking point and exposed their precarious lack of depth. Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday will have to take a breather at some point in the playoffs and when they do, opposing teams will light up the scoreboard.
Odds New Orleans will win the NBA championship: 150/1
Denver Nuggets: A Brutal First Round Match-Up
As the potential eighth seed in the West, the Nuggets will have to face the Rockets in the first round. The same Rockets, by the way, who beat them like a rented mule during the regular season. Houston went 3-0 against Denver in 2017-18 and outscored Jamal Murray and co. by an average of 20 points on 51.8-percent from the field and 44.3-percent from behind the arc.
Odds Denver will win the NBA championship: 500/1
Los Angeles Clippers: They’re the Clippers
The Clippers haven’t officially been eliminated yet, but their playoff chances are dwindling faster than Charlie Sheen’s bank account. L.A. has four games remaining and must defeat Utah, Denver, and New Orleans, a trio of hard-charging teams who are also fighting for playoff positioning. It’s time to stick a fork in ‘em, because this team is done.
.@TeamLou23 with the big triple! ?
? #PrimeTicket pic.twitter.com/13uHTSOi7z
— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) April 1, 2018
Odds Los Angeles will win the NBA championship: 1,000/1
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
