SBD’s Expert Brackets and March Madness Picks

• The first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament starts on Friday, March 19th
• Each member of SBD’s editorial team has completed their bracket
• See who they’re picking to win the title, make the Final Four, and pull off the the biggest first-round upset

With the first round of March Madness a scant 48 hours away, SBD’s editorial staff have finalized their 2021 NCAA Tournament brackets.

Which one should readers trust? Matt comes first alphabetically. Sura has the most youthful exuberance. But Sascha is the oldest, the wisest, and also the one writing this.

Jump to: Matt McEwan’s Bracket  |  Mitch Robson’s Bracket  |  Pete Apostolopoulos’ Bracket  |  Ryan Metivier’s Bracket  |  Ryan Sura’s Bracket  |  Sascha Paruk’s Bracket

SBD Expert March Madness Picks

All odds from DraftKings on March 16th-17th.

Matt McEwan’s Bracket

Biggest First-Round Upset: #13 North Texas (+7.5) over Purdue

My biggest first-round upset is North Texas (+7.5) over #4 Purdue. I love a tournament team that is (1) led by upperclassmen, (2) capable of locking it down on the defensive end, and (3) plays at a slow pace. This is the Mean Green in a nutshell. Purdue is a very balanced team, but I believe the Boilermakers can be frustrated enough by a strong interior defense.

First #1 Seed to Lose: Baylor

I have Baylor as the first #1 seed to lose. While I don’t believe Baylor is the worst #1 seed in the tournament, I do think they have the toughest path early on. Their second-round matchup with either Wisconsin (10th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings) or North Carolina will be tough, and then Villanova and Purdue are also under-seeded, according to KenPom’s rankings.

I like the Bears’ talent to get them through to the Sweet 16, but no further.

Mitch Robson’s Bracket

Biggest First-Round Upset: #14 Eastern Washington (+10.5) over #3 Kansas

My reasoning for taking this upset is twofold: (1) Eastern Washington’s style of play and (2) the Jayhawks’ uncertainty surrounding their COVID issues.

We already know star freshman Jalen Wilson will be out for Bill Self’s squad, which will hamper the Jayhawks’ ability to score from the perimeter. The Eagles play at one of the fastest paces in the country, led by 6’9 big man Tanner Groves, who averages 16 and 8 while shooting 55% from field. Having only lost once since mid-January, EWU looks like a good bet to at least cover the spread, if not win outright.

Texas to Make Final Four: +700

With Michigan’s ceiling seemingly lowered due to Isaiah Livers’ absence, I’m taking a shot with Texas to advance out of the East region and reach the Final Four.

We finally saw senior big man Jericho Sims emerge as a two-way force at the Big 12 Tournament, and Shaka Smart has a trio of experienced guards to trust for a bucket in Andrew Jones, Courtney Ramey, and Matt Coleman.

They matchup well with Alabama as their potential toughest opponent, and will be able to compete with the Wolverines’ size should Juwan Howard’s team be awaiting in the Elite 8.

Pete Apostolopoulos’ Bracket

Ryan Metivier’s Bracket

Ryan Sura’s Bracket

National Champion: Illinois (+700)

Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are both Naismith Player of the Year candidates and shouldn’t have any trouble leading their squad through the Midwest region. According to the KenPom Rankings, Illinois has the seventh-best adjusted offense and fifth-best adjusted defense in the country.

At +700, the Fighting Illini have great value as a #1 seed to win. Look for Brad Underwood to lead this team to its first NCAA National Championship since 1943.

Biggest First-Round Upset: #15 Grand Canyon (+15) vs #2 Iowa

When I watched Iowa lose back-to-back games to Ohio State and Indiana in early February, I knew if they played a competent defensive team in the Round of 64 or 32, I would pick the upset.

Grand Canyon comes in as a #15 seed after winning the WAC. The Antelopes are one of the most efficient teams in the country on two-point field goals, they defend the three very well, and they have the size to minimize Luka Garza’s production inside. The spread is +15.0, but the moneyline is priced at +900. Sprinkle some on Grand Canyon ML.

Sascha Paruk’s Bracket

National Champion: Gonzaga (+205)

The analytics (KenPom, Torvik, etc) are not as reliable this season due to smaller sample sizes. But the difference between Gonzaga and the rest of the country is still too massive to ignore. At +38.06, Gonzaga is nearly six points better (per 100 possessions) than the second-best team (Michigan, +32.22). No team has ever finished with a rating that high at KenPom in the site’s 20-year history, and the gap between first and second has never been this big. The previous record was 2010-11 Ohio State, which was +5.05 higher than second-rated Duke.

First #1 Seed to Lose: Michigan

I have written extensively about why Michigan is the most-vulnerable #1 seed. I have them falling in the second round to St. Bonaventure, but even if LSU defeats the Bonnies in the first round, the Tigers’ fifth-rated offense is going to give UM all it can handle.

Biggest First-Round Upset: #12 UCSB (+7) over #5 Creighton

I  have UC Santa Barbara pulling a seven-point upset over Creighton in the first round. That’s partly because I believe the Gauchos – and the Big West Conference as a whole – are underrated. The dissension in the Creighton ranks is also a factor, though.