Auburn Enters Elite 8 With Worst Odds (18-1) to Win Tournament; Is There Value?

• The Auburn Tigers have won their last two NCAA Tournament games by at least 14 points
• The Tigers have never been to the Final Four
• Auburn is at +1800 to win the NCAA Tournament

The Auburn Tigers have knocked out the No. 1 seed in their region, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and have now made it to the Elite Eight.

As impressive as their performance was, the team is still being doubted. Their odds to win NCAA Men’s Tournament are now at an average of +1800, the longest shot of any teams left standing.

Is there value betting them?

2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Futures Odds

Odds taken March 30.

Tigers Put Forgetting Start Behind Them

The Tigers are into the Elite Eight but many people forget how close they came to losing in the opening round.

Auburn had a meltdown in the waning moments against No. 12 New Mexico State but somehow managed to hang on for dear life.

Auburn survives a WILD finish. pic.twitter.com/KAU23NUAlP

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 21, 2019

Since then, though, Auburn has been on-point. They smoked No. 5 Kansas 89-75 and the final score isn’t even indicative of how much of a blowout that was.

Then the Tigers easily handled North Carolina – one of the tournament favorites – with a 17-point win. They’ve won 11 in a row and are one win away from the schools first-ever Final Four.

Auburn’s Defense Is Struggling

The Tigers offense is playing so well that nobody is paying attention to their defense.

They’ve allowed at least 77 points in every game while allowing each opponent to shoot at least 43.1%. For the tournament, opponents are shooting 45.7% against them. That’s a concern.

Okeke Tore His ACL

The second issue to be concerned about is that Auburn just lost forward Chuma Okeke to a torn ACL. He’ll miss the rest of the tournament.

Auburn has depth but this is a player that had scored in double-digits in all three games. He’s the team’s third-leading scorer, their top rebounder, and best interior defender.

Amazing sportsmanship from UNC’s players to greet Chuma Okeke as he made his way off the court pic.twitter.com/cAMeBjZsAK

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 30, 2019

In the two regular season games with Kentucky, Okeke had 14 points and three rebounds, and 11 points and six rebounds. This loss will hurt.

Auburn Lives And Dies By The Three

This is not breaking news but Auburn lives and dies by the three. They’re average a whopping 14.0 per game in the NCAA Tournament.

My concern is that they could go cold for a game or face a strong defensive team and lose as a result.

For example, Virginia was second in the country in defending the three and they could see Auburn in the Final Four. Duke was 12th and they’re still looming on the other side of the bracket. Texas Tech was 18th and Gonzaga was 24th.

There are still a number of teams who excel at protecting the arc that are still in Auburn’s way.

Let’s make history. Together.#WarEagle x #UnfinishedBusiness pic.twitter.com/8W70d5vQV1

— Auburn Basketball (@AuburnMBB) March 30, 2019

We also know that Kentucky is up next for Auburn and Kentucky beat this team twice. Auburn hit just 36.8% of their threes in the two games, which is partially why they lost.

Add it all up and I’m not that excited about Auburn winning it all. If anything, I see Auburn’s loss creating an opening for Virginia, who should have a much easier matchup in the Final Four as a result.

I would be far more inclined to bet the Cavs than the Tigers at this point.