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Creighton vs Baylor Odds, Spread & Predictions (March 19)

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in College Basketball

Updated Mar 18, 2023 · 9:49 PM PDT

Baylor Bears guard Adam Flagler reacts to a play
Mar 17, 2023; Denver, CO, USA; Baylor Bears guard Adam Flagler (10) reacts to a play during the second half against UC Santa Barbara Gauchos in the first round of the 2023 NCAA men’s basketball tournament at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael Ciaglo-USA TODAY Sports
  • Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite over the Creighton in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday, March 19
  • The winner of Creighton vs Baylor advances to the Sweet 16
  • Below, see the Creighton vs Baylor odds and picks for Sunday afternoon

The sixth-seeded Creighton Bluejays (22-12, 17-17 ATS) face the third-seeded Baylor Bears (23-10, 16-14-1 ATS) on Sunday, March 19, in Denver. A win grants entrance into the Sweet 16.

Bookmakers opened a little unsure here, setting the spread around plus or minus 1 to 2 points, depending on the site.

Creighton vs Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Creighton +1.5 (-115) Even O 146.5 (-110)
Baylor -1.5 (-105) -120 U 146.5 (-110)

Creighton and Baylor are both capable in the March Madness bracket. The Bluejays (+3217) are around the middle in the March Madness odds, while the Baylor Bears stand at +1967.

Tip-off for this tilt is set for 4:00 pm ET on Sunday March 19 at Ball Arena from Denver, Colorado. The game will be on TNT. Baylor currently is a -125 favorite to advance.


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Odds as of March 17 at FanDuel. Unlock a BetMGM Sportsbook promo or download one of the other March Madness betting apps.

Creighton vs Baylor Betting Trends

Creighton is one of those teams that plays well defensively but does not cause a lot in the way of turnovers. That allows some teams who utilize guard play can thrive versus the Bluejays. Creighton came in 4-4 over their final eight games, before pulling away from NC State on Friday late. Also, they are .500 ATS on the season. By contrast, Baylor is 3-2 in their past five ATS. Throw out the Iowa State games and they have covered seven out of the previous nine contests.

Oddly enough, Baylor had a tough time with UCSB in the first half but Adam Flagler and the guards came though during the second half. That push gave the Bears an 18-point triumph. It helped the Bears cover as the Gauchos had no answers for the third-seed in the South Region.

So, the total of 146.5 points, the over/under is set pretty accurate. On the other hand, this may move around a little more before Sunday. Both teams can score in the middle to high 70’s but can go ice cold in stretches. We saw that with both teams in the first half on Friday. Creighton and Baylor are two of the top 13 teams in the nation in terms of Simple Rating System. This is more like a Sweet 16 matchup at second glance.

Both teams play quickly, but Creighton has the better defensive ratings and metrics. The problem again is that Baylor is causing more turnovers lately. However, their inside defense allows 53.3% shooting and the Bluejays can exploit that staying in the game easily.

Creighton Did What It Had to on Friday

Creighton limped into the tournament after getting thumped by 22 at the hands of Xavier. This was after winning three straight games. All year, the Bluejays have been consistently inconsistent. Now, this Greg McDermott team has top-ten potential easily, but asking them to win six straight games is a lot. This Bluejays squad won six straight to open the year then lost six in a row.

Creighton was neck and neck with NC State for most of this game. It was in the final few minutes where the Bluejays finally pulled away for a 72-63 victory. It was not pretty, but the Bluejays persevered and advanced.

Baylor Poured It on in the Second Half

Keynote George is a long shot at +25000 in the Wooden Award odds, but this Bears team knows its guards are their bread and butter when times get tough. During the second half, the Bears outscored the Gauchos 39-20. Now, it was those guards who scored 33 of the 39 points.

Yes, guards are the key to advancing in March. Just ask teams like Purdue what happens when that does not come to fruition. George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer can be matchup nightmares for any team. That is especially true of Creighton, who again does not create a lot of turnovers.

Baylor’s guards must knock down shots while their forwards clean up on the glass. It is that simple. The Bears will not have it easy to contain Baylor Scheierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Schierman was ice cold but heated up in the final few minutes. Can Baylor prevent those mini Creighton runs from becoming bigger ones?

Creighton vs Baylor Prediction

Baylor is fortunate to draw a team that can be a little amiss defensively as the Bears are sometimes. Creighton has gotten it together against the spread as they have covered four of their past five games.

However, Baylor played in a tougher conference and had the fifth toughest schedule in the nation. This is a game where that fact pays dividends. Creighton could find this game to be a bear on Sunday.

Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-105)


March Madness second-round predictions:

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