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Maryland vs Alabama Odds and Picks for March Madness Second Round

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Updated Mar 17, 2023 · 12:58 PM PDT

Alabama players celebrating on bench
Mar 16, 2023; Birmingham, AL, USA; Alabama center Charles Bediako (14), Alabama guard Mark Sears (1), Alabama guard Jahvon Quinerly (5), and Alabama forward Brandon Miller (24) watch from the bench as the games comes to a close at Legacy Arena. Alabama advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament with a 96-75 win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News Ncaa Basketball Ncaa Tournament Alabama Vs Texas A M Corpus Christi
  • Top-seeded Alabama are 8.5-point favorites over Maryland in second-round play in the NCAA Tournament
  • Freshman Crimson Tide star Brandon Miller was scoreless in the first round vs Texas A&M-CC
  • See below for the latest Maryland vs Alabama odds, predictions, and best bets

They took two different Round 1 paths to get here, but now the 8th-seeded Maryland Terrapins (22-12,22-12-0 ATS) and top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (30-5, 19-15-1 ATS) will battle for a Sweet 16 berth in the South Region of the March Madness bracket.

The Terps started out slow, and needed to grind out a win over West Virginia, relying on their star Julian Reese.

Alabama sprinted out against Texas A&M Corpus Christi, put it in cruise control, and didn’t get a single point from freshman star Brandon Miller.

Now, two teams ranked inside KenPom’s top-20 rankings clash Friday (March 18) at 9:40pm ET from Legacy Arena at BJCC in Birmingham, AL. The game can be seen live on TBS.

Maryland vs Alabama Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
[8] Maryland Terrapins
+8.5 (-110) +320 Ov 144.5 (-110)
[1] Alabama Crimson Tide
-8.5 (-110) -390 Un 144.5 (-110)

The Crimson Tide open as 8.5-point favorites and -390 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 79.59%. This one features a total of 144.5.

Maryland may have finished fifth in the Big Ten, but the stage shouldn’t be too big for them. They’ve knocked off five ranked teams already this season, including the Purdue Boilermakers, the top seed in the East Region.

The winner of this will advance to play the winner of no. 13 Furman vs no. 5 San Diego State.

 

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Terrapins Grind Out Win vs Mountaineers

Maryland found themselves down 16-4 to start against West Virginia, a stretch where they had more turnovers (6) than field goals. They eventually found their footing to lead 32-30 at half.

A back and forth second half saw the Terps in the lead late, and they watched a Kedrian Johnson heave at the buzzer glance off rim to preserve a 67-65 victory.

Julian Reese led the way with 17 points, nine rebounds and three dimes, while Hakim Hart had 15 points, three rebounds, four assists and two steals. Four Maryland starters finished in double-digit scoring.

Their defense held the Mountaineers to 39.3% shooting. It’s been a strong suit all season, holding teams to 63.2 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NCAA. They’re inside the top-100 in field goal shooting D (42.4%), and teams are shooting 31.8% from distance, 63rd in the NCAA.

Maryland vs Alabama Head-to-Head

Maryland Terrapins
VS
Alabama Crimson Tide
8 South Region Seed 1
22-12 Season Record 30-5
70.7 Points per Game 82.8
63.2 Points Against per Game 69.5
51.3% Effective FG% 52.9%
47.8% Opponent Effective FG% 41.4%

Crimson Tide Leave No Doubt in Round 1

There was not even a sniff of upset as the tournament’s top seed, with the second-best odds to win the NCAA Tournament, dismantled 16th-seeded Texas A&M-CC 96-75.

Alabama went to work early, drilling eight of their first 11 three-point shots en route to a 20-point halftime lead. The outside shooting was a pleasant surprise for the ‘Tide, going 15-for-33 from beyond the arc, a 45.5% clip. They shot just 33.9% from distance this season, a lowly 206th in the NCAA.

That didn’t stop them, however, from averaging 82.8 points per game, the seventh-best scoring mark in the nation, one of only 18 teams to crack the 80-point plateau.

Mark Sears led the starters with 15 points and three assists, while Noah Clowney had 10 points. Both hit 3-for-4 from downtown. Nick Pringle came off the bench to lead all scorers with 19 points, while adding 15 rebounds.

Freshman star Brandon Miller played just 19 minutes and missed all five shots, going scoreless with five rebounds and three assists. Look for ‘Bama to get their young stud cooking early and often vs Maryland.

Alabama’s elite defense didn’t look like it was cranked up, and they still held the Islanders to 34.7% shooting. They rank third in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, and hold teams to 37.7% shooting from the field and 28.4% from three, both ranking third in the NCAA. They limit teams to a 41.4% effective field goal percentage, the best mark in college hoops.

Maryland vs Alabama Prediction

Maryland is a sneaky good team that mimics a lot of what Alabama does, with far less fanfare. There are betting elements that could have you thinking upset, including the Terps going 5-1 against the spread in their last six games on a neutral court.

The Crimson Tide have not been a great bet in the tournament of late, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight following a win.

This features a tale of two paces too. ‘Bama has the 5th-best adjusted tempo at KenPom, while the Terrapins are a lowly 322nd.

With defenses this strong, however, we should be looking at this total. Both teams defend the arc well and neither shoots it great from distance. The under has hit in four of Alabama’s last five, and Maryland has gone under the total in 12 of their last 16 following a win.

Pick: Under 144.5 (-110)

 


March Madness second-round predictions (March 18):

March Madness first-round predictions (March 19):

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