Odds Heavily Favor ACC Winning 2019 March Madness Entering Sweet 16

• The ACC still has five teams left in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, including three #1 seeds
• The SEC put four teams into the Sweet 16, while the Big Ten has three
• Which conference is the best bet to win March Madness entering the Sweet 16?

After two ultra-chalky rounds of March Madness 2019, the only way your bracket is busted is if you went heavy on underdogs.

With favorites going a perfect 16-0 in the round of 32, all the big boys are still alive entering the Sweet 16.  This is particularly good news for the ACC, which boasts three of the tournaments four #1 seeds (Duke, Virginia, UNC), and still has Virginia Tech (#4, East) and Florida State (#4, West) alive and kicking.

Which Conference Will Win NCAA March Madness?

If all things were created equal the ACC would have a 31% chance of winning the tournament thanks to having 5/16 teams remaining.

But as we all know, nothing is created equal in college basketball. Even at -170 (~63% implied probability), the clear value play right now is on the ACC to win the National Championship.

"You guys were made for these 2 minutes"

Coach K had all the faith in the world in his players ? pic.twitter.com/ybs7zmirLZ

— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) March 25, 2019

ACC Has Been Best Conference All Season

The fact the NCAA tournament is slowly turning into a carbon copy of the ACC tournament should surprise nobody.  The conference is 10-2 overall so far which is the best mark of any conference.  That was to be expected for a couple reasons.

First, the teams from the top of the ACC are better than the top teams from other conferences. All year they have had several teams ranked high in the AP poll and they are also battle tested after playing all the tough in-conference games.

While the Big 12 and Big Ten rated higher in KenPom’s conference rankings, that’s only because their bottom-tier teams are better than the ACC’s basement dwellers (Pitt, BC, Miami, Wake). All five of the ACC’s remaining teams are top-14 at KenPom.

No other conference has more than three in that range. Virginia, Duke, and UNC all rate higher than the best team from the SEC (Kentucky).

? 1️⃣6️⃣ ? #CarolinaSZN | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/h6DnIDZy3n

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 24, 2019

The second reason to bet the ACC is a relatively easy path going forward.  Since three of the four top seeds went to Duke, UNC and Virginia, they have easiest matchups in the Sweet 16. The biggest spreads in the Sweet 16 are Duke (-7.5) vs Va. Tech (where the ACC wins no matter what) and Virginia (- 7.5) versus Oregon.

UNC is also a sizable five-point favorite versus Auburn.

Too Many Quality Teams To Fade ACC

Duke survived a scare from UFC to make the Sweet 16.  Had they lost, this bet would have become a lot more interesting.  As it stands you can make the argument the three best teams remaining are all from the ACC.

This isn’t disrespecting the quality from other conferences, it’s just taking the best batch of teams left.  How could you possibly make the argument for Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee and LSU over what the ACC has left, especially with PJ Washington still in a cast?

The Wildcats have looked good against inferior opposition but they struggled to put Wofford away and a performance like that against an elite opponent would almost certainly result in a ticket home. They beat North Carolina in a neutral-site game earlier this year (80-72), but at less than 100 percent with the Washington injury, it seems unlikely they’d be able to win a rematch. Washington filled the stat sheet with 11 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 blocks against the Tar Heels.

This isn’t just a case of the ACC having the volume; it’s a case of quality and quantity.  When you have both and only need to pay -170, you’ve found value.

Put it on the bracket – we’re heading to the #Sweet16!! #PressOn
?⚔️? #GoHoos pic.twitter.com/34kcZNd5W5

— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 25, 2019

With so many great teams from the ACC still dancing and one of the biggest threats missing a key piece, there’s no need to overthink this one – bet the ACC and enjoy the rest of the tournament.  The only downside is that you won’t get any excitement in the final when two ACC teams are playing each other.

PICK: ACC (-170)